Mate I congratulate you on being able to put that much garbage into such a confined space.

This is a place to discuss and share tips, not somewhere you come in hours after the fact saying 'well she was obviously the best bet'. If you have something to contribute do it before the match please, otherwise start your own thread for your rantings.

Cheers,

Sparks

Well said Sparkus


Dear Professor57
Having been to college, my tutors and profs were qualified and proven individuals who presented what they wanted us to learn or showed us the direction. So far your qualifications are:

• “I don't bet”
• picks 0 = wins 0
• before match advice = nothing
• betting history = nothing
• methodology of picking winners = counterproductive, obstruent, retardative, after the fact ramblings about class and vollying ability

Your qualifications are therefore somewhere between 0 and nothing.


Marco is kindly giving his time to present a forum on a sport that has very rarely been tackled in a professional manner. He has made it perfectly clear to us that the expectation rate of his picks is to be close to 10%. As anyone who bets professionally knows, you have good weeks and bad weeks. Where were you when he went 4 from 5 at Indian Wells, 5/5 at Warsaw, 4/4 at Strasbourg etc etc.

Marco makes his living on his picks. You should stick to your day job.

The world and these forums do not need negative bigots. Take the advice given and start your own thread. Hindsight.com sounds like a very good place for you.


Karla

Good morning all. Well K909,gad to see you're as feisty as ever.And you too Sparkus8
I did say the women were not my favoured bets BUT if you recall our little run-in about a month ago.(On ATP thread) you might recall my succinct comment that, while all and sundry were proposing Karlovic,Ancic,Schrichipan,the other Johansson,Stepanek etc etc as "the dangers" I said. "The winners at Wimbledon will be the same players IN GENERAL who also win at Flushing meadows and in Melbourne" This was post 241 (page 10) on that thread.
In the women we now have the "surprise" 2time U.S./Wimbledon winner in the final and probably(??) the other non-French Open multi-winner. In the men there were only 5 starters who have won the U.S. or Australian and guess what???? Safin got nervous but T. Johansson DIDN'T!!!! Neither did Federer(1 U.S., 1 Australian) or Roddick (1 U.S.) or Hewitt (1 U.S.). All the gonna bes and will bes and should bes are lying by the roadside and you are telling ME I didn't let you know early enough!!!! Good one! I'm sure you'll be gracious enough to admit that you SHOULD have followed that early advice,lads. Perhaps you'll give it some thought next June when you all start reminding us that Wimbledon is for "specialists". Or maybe you'll pick up something from the "Professor" and dodge the second-raters and no hopers.
Finally; to win in the long term punting on "two-horse" races you have to avoid the losers. So, I expected Sharapova to win BUT wouldn't bet her because she was fav. Thus a losing bet is avoided. Likewise if Davenport wins I'll have avoided another OR when she does win I'll STILL be ahead by passing on the Russian!! Got it yet? Too many bats is fatal!!! Regardless; successful punting to you all.

Suggetsion Box
 

I received a few emails during my week off with some suggestions so I'll make a couple of changes. I'll start using fractional Kelly betting for my staking with the maximum bet being 2 units (with fractions thereof). This is the method I personally use and its shown greater returns than the flat bets used on this thread.

For anyone who doesn't understand Kelly betting just "Google" the phrase.

I'll also introduce outrights but will use an all-up method. That is, if I think Williams will win, I'll bet on her in the First Round (or whatever Round I think best) at match odds and roll over the winnings in each round. Betting this way means you can reassess the player each round and 'stop' the bet at any point rather than being locked in as with the outright. You can sometimes get superior odds this way but the opposite is also true. You tend to get lower odds backing round by round when favourites get knocked out. The max. initial stake for outrights will also be 2 units but the "rolled over" or reinvested stake may obviously be more than this figure.

I'll also do weekly updates rather than daily updates on ROI etc as this seemed to be the consensus opinion.

Hope all that makes sense.

The WTA is back after a week off for The Fed Cup - yahoo!

http://www.wtamodena.com/2005/

We're back on clay for a brief spell at the low ranking (Tier IV) Modena Open in Italy. An average field with limited betting opportunities. However there's good live-scoring for such a small tourney.

The bookies will probably be slow this week as per usual.


Ondraskova V Cervanova
Round 1

Ondraskova recently won the Zagreb clay challenger against a field of similar quality opponents to Cervanova. Prior to Zagreb she made the final of the Prague clay tournament where she lost a close match to Safina. Cervanova is a patchy player who's been in terrible form lately losing 5 of her last 6 games. She favours clay courts but will need to be at her best to win.

Ondraskova $1.43 @ Centrebet 1.2 units
(better prices at smaller bookies and may be better when Pinnacle/5Dimes list)

Loit v Bondarenko
Round 1

A small bet on Loit who is the better player but is known to put in the occassional poor game. Loit played the Marseille clay challenger as a warm up while Bondarenko is coming straight of grass.

Loit $1.60 @ Centrebet 0.2 units

A couple of good wins last night with both players available at better prices.


Sanchez Lorenzo v Sucha
Round 1

Sucha's on a 7 game losing streak dating back to April and while Sanchez Lorenzo's results have been mixed, she favours clay courts as evidenced by a recent win over Myskina. The Spaniard has better form and a better game on the dirt.

Sanchez Lorenzo $1.63 @ Pinnacle 0.5 units


Garbin v Cohen-Aloro
Round 1

Should be close but a slight edge to Garbin who recently made the final of the Prostejov clay challenger. This is also a 'home' tournament for the popular Italian. Cohen Aloro can win but she prefers it faster and has floundered a bit on clay this season.

Garbin $1.78 @ Pinnacle 0.9 units



Vesnina v Matevzic
Round 1

Matevzic is on the comeback from an 18-month injury layoff. She's only played a handful of games since her return in May and hasn't been in good form. Vesnina is no superstar but came through qualies with a good win over Savchuk and has played a few clay challengers recently.

Vesnina $2.18 @ Pinnacle 0.7 units


Pastikova v Parra-Santonja
Round 1

Very hard to split these two so a bet on price. Pastikova has been on the clay challenger circuit while Santonja comes straight off grass. Both clay courters with similar records.

Pastikova $2.46 @ Pinnacle 0.4 units

Vesnina is no superstar

Wow - somebody thinks she is Marco.

Now $1.50 at Pinnacle and $1.40 elsewhere.

Pure Madness!

This is only the third time Vesnina's made the main draw of a WTA tournament (plus she only has one main draw win against wildcard Buyucackay in Istanbul).

The betting graphs at Betfair are interesting! (ie: click on players name). A very quick turnaround in price - wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of inside injury knowledge at work.

If Vesnina wins I won't record the profit as I doubt many were quick enough to get the price (though I'm happy to record the loss if she loses).

Meanwhile, I'm off to arbitrage a very healthy position.

Two wins and two losses last night though to be fair and keep everyone happy I won't record Vesnina's win as her price unexpectedly collapsed.


Ondraskova V Szavay
Round 2

A follow on from yesterday the in-form Ondraskova (see yesterday's post) meets 16-year-old Szavay (ranked 301). Szavay likes clay but her 33/11 record has few games at this level. Most of her wins have come in Qualifiers or low-ranked Challengers. Yesterday was only her second WTA main draw win. Of course she can win today but the value is with Ondraskova who is a respectable 80/42 on clay.

Ondraskova $1.66 @ Pinnacle 1.3 units.

Smashnova v Parra Santonja
Round 2

Smashnova is the better player but she's known to play like a "fruit loop" at times. Both girls like the dirt but Smashnova's 112/64 record shades Santonja's 64/41 record in quality and quantity. A smallish bet on a small overlay.

Smashnova $1.38 @ Pinnacle 0.3 units.

Im not taking the p*** but what happened with Ondraskova ....After reading your write up I went and had a look at the form and thought that Ondraskova maybe should have been shorter than she was .....Fortunately for me I couldnt back her because I was still waiting for a result of my Vanek bet in rimini (Im betting all up till I reach $3< in divs) and I knew ************all about what was going on there so I had to pass backing any of the girls ...the youngn give her a bit of touch up according to the scores