C.P.

I think the paragraph of yours that Crash quoted explains a lot to me.


Quote:"There can be 6 different people with 6 different methods, all rating different horse's value. They are all correct if they all show a longterm profit. There's more than one way to make a profit, some are more lucrative than others." End quote.

This is what intrigued me, WHO defines the value.
From that paragraph it seems it is the person's METHOD that says whether to bet or not.

Shaun,
I think you already know the answer.
I list my bets as I bet using pen and paper, when the return is more than the outlay I stop.
I then put the profit into my book I use , with a running total for the month.
If a lose day, the loss goes into the book and comes off the total.
That's it, no other records, they don't mean anything to me.
As you know I'm currently running a win method in conjunction with my place.
Yesterday for example I bet 10 races, with a total of 16 bets.
To start I went down 11 points then got to up 4 points, thats it finished.
The profit goes into the book and added to the total.
I can't see how keeping numerous records of strike rate, POT etc etc can help me,
as it all comes down to $$$, As long as my last column goes up and up I'm happy.

Crash,
As we say all to our own, but I personally will never agree with you in relation to race class, BUT thats only me as I do better in the lower class races.

Cheers to all.

Heres another idea to check out.


1)Target races where the whole field has had 8+ career starts.
2)Select 5-6 horses from any rating method or mob who does them.
e.g. AAP Neurals , Wizard Racing paper , Best Bets, API ranking, Place % ranking ect.
3)Write down the price as per IAS Bookmakers.
4)Back all the ones either paying more than IAS at jump time or chase the ones paying less at jump time . That is a subjective thing for one to work to what works best for them.

I feel with too many stats in front of oneselfe, one would end up with analysis paralysis with 2 bets out of 80 races, both loosing at odds on.

As you can see below Kenchar I never mentioned race 'class', so there is nothing to disagree with. A "poor betting race" has nothing to do with class.

"I think punters shoot themselves in the foot a lot through betting on far too many poor betting races [compulsive punting]. If punters put as much effort into selecting the races to bet on as they put into selecting a runner to back, they would be well on the way to profitable punting. We can be our own worst enemy and the biggest barrier to long term profit."

A group 1 might be a poor race to bet on and a class 1 might be a good betting race. It all depends on the race. Yes, I do have my race class and distance preferences but among those I carefully choose which of them I think are betable races. Regardless of what class or race distance any punter preferes to bet on, some are going to be good betting propositions and others should be left well alone as dogs.

CRASH.
 

Couldn,t agree more .
One thing I look for when using the WIZARD wt ratings is races where a maximum of 2 horses are rated at between 100 - 91 and the others below this .
This indicates to me at least that here you have 2 standouts .
With 2 standouts like this I need a minimum of $3 on both to make a profit and usually an online bookie (market forces ) will allow this .
Cheers.
darky.

Crash,

Point taken.

Kenchar...thats cool...atleast you are putting something in the book to know where you stand how much you have bet and how much you have won....some people don't even do that

Thanks everyone
 

Thanks to everyone who replied ...

I have decided on ******************** for my data, basically because I can easily write a program to download the data for myself and then I can run my own calculations on it.

Thanks again.