Tweaking the system
 

I am currently trialing a system that follows the results of different types of selections. The system basically determines what type of selection to use next according to race results as they come to hand. I don't want to provide too much information about the program only to say that it is dynamic in that the system itself is changing constantly throughout the day.

The program works on all types of races (horses, harness and greys) and is automated because I could not possibly keep up with the constant collection of results and subsequent number crunching.

I have been developing the program over the last few months and whilst I have not been collecting results during that period I could see it was looking very promising. Recent results gathered over the last 18 days shows it won on 16 out of the 18 days. But not to get too cocky - time will tell how it fares in the long run.

What is unique about the program and pertinent to this topic is that it is a system that is not constant but is changing throughout the day.

Very interesting, you have happening something like what I have in mind. I believe that essentially there are only a few key areas of difference in any system. Form (meaning events that have happened in the past), betting (meaning what people think in the now) and of course predictions (the selections that are going to happen in the future). This is all bound by the wagering methods.

I doubt that backing a tipsters 2nd selections is really a system based on my analogy above, however it might yield good results depending on the wagering method.

I also believe that a system may indeed have a high incidents of selecting winners and that you can still lose because of unsound wagering principles.

Be that as it may, a dynamic system appeals to me because it has the sense of amalgamating all the factors above (past, present & future) into one 'living' system that by its dynamic nature could be the source of some highly remarkable selections.

I wouldn't want my system to come up with every favourite (as was mentioned earlier by a poster), if that was all the system was yielding me, I might as well dump it and buy a race book with tips in it.

The dynamic system appeals to me because of the sense of taking the latest possible information and crunching it at speeds that humans can't. In this sense I definitely feel that I would have an advantage. I am not frowning on experience and gut feeling as recorded earlier but a computer takes the sentiment out and relies on pure data. There is an old saying, garbage in garbage out, an old programmers saying. It has the reverse sense also, meaning that the quality of your input will directly equate to your output, quality data in, quality selections out.

You still need to figure out how to back them, that's another part of the total program, but I sure wish I could hear more about your idea of a dynamic system, without revealing too much of course :-)

Tailwag

That sound like an interesting concept Debug. I'm not quite sure what you mean though. Could you give us an example of a 'dynamic' system and how that would work in practise, so I can further get my head around it ? Thanks.

Hi KV
 

I find nothing more annoying than having a system which forces you to make decisions on a race by race basis

Yep Im with you on that one..Im not geared up for that type of betting...mental wise..I like to know well in advance as to which selections I have for the day. The chances of making errors can increase dramatically, while, the clock ticks down to the jump...

It gets back to finding something that suits one's own makeup. The above type is well suited to some people, although I would suggest that it would be a very small perecntage of punters...having the calmness and ability to handle "realtime" pressure.

tailwag/crash
 

Sorry about the delay in replying.

I don’t want to give too much away about the core workings but here is some information about the program.

What I meant about dynamic is that the program does not roll along (and it may run for hours) selecting runners on a fixed method of selection - dutching the first 3 favourites for instance. It will check the results of a range of previous selection methods to see how they have fared and switch to the one that is producing the best results. How it measures results is another issue but it will also take into consideration tracks and codes (racing, harness and greys). Sometimes it will not make a selection if the results are not favourable. During the course of a program run it will be constantly assessing results and switching selection methods.

The program when it starts has to run through several races to collect information before it kicks in and begins it selection process.

There is a pop up window control panel that has range of switches (tick in the box type switches) for switching features in and out of the program. I set these switches before the program starts or I may decide to change them during the running process. Specific race tracks, races or race codes can be preset if required.

Bets can be set as win, place or each way. With an each way bet there is the option of 1 unit win to 1 unit place, or, 1 unit win to 2 units place - which is what I prefer.

Preset race selections can also be used - Tab 3 in Randwick race 5 for instance. The program will use this selection for this race instead of doing its auto selection.

It also has the provision for putting information up onto the net. Because the races for the day need to be in chronological order I often put this info onto the net (with the click of a button) for anyone who wants to use it.
See http://www.videocam.net.au/koala/racetimes.html

The program as I see it will always be evolving. Changes being made new features added. What I like about the program is it does not dither, unlike me who could not pick a winner in a 2 horse race.

Looks like your pushing a personal barrow here Debug. Not that I mind, but management might :-)

Crash
 

No, there is nothing to push.

It is a personal program for my own use.

I put stuff up on the net simply simply as an excercise which I pass on to a few people who I swap discussions with.

Hi Debug, thnakss for posting that link..it could be very handy for a lot of punters, regardless of which methods they use ..

Thank you for your reply, and I could not agree more with the final sentence of your posting quoted above. These are words I have spoken often!

I also took the liberty of downloading your programs and looked at them, you have done a lot of work and are very serious about what you do, so from that point of view I wish you every success. You are a doer and not a talker :-)

In as far as most systems are similar in fashion but change in design, they are all dependant of several key areas, I can see the dynamic nature of your system, and it represents a real-time/race day solution. I want to develop my system to have a dynamic capability NOT on race day but the day before or several days before.

This of course would mean that current prices would not be part of that criteria, however predicted prices certainly could play a role in the selection process and then if predicted prices are matched with real prices on the day, you could back the selection then.

My ideal system would involve collecting the fields for a meeting several days before the event, running the program to come up with selections, give me a print out of same to pop into my pocket and take with me to the races or any other place where I have access to placing a wager.

Then armed with my list of selection and probable price ranges, I sit and wait to see if the odds expected match the odds on offer and I place the bet, the rest of course is up to fate and history :-)

So my form of dynamic in this sense is the interplay between the selection criteria and the prices on the actual day. I would of course only have to concentrate on the races where selections have come up according to the selection criteria. Other systems would have you scanning every race for a possible match and that is a full time job.

My second form of dynamic is totally different than described above. In this form of dynamic system, I would have all the above as well as a direct current odds feed. The program would flag me when a certain price point (odds) matched a desired predetermined set of selections according to my selection criteria which I can run on the day the fields come out.

The essential difference between the two systems are in the first, you get a print out and can go and have a life and place your bets over the phone or in a Tab outlet etc. The system would rely on you doing a personal observation of the prices on offer for the selection in question.

The second system would require you to be at your computer with a direct constant feed of prices waiting for the all important matching of odds to required price to make your bet.

Both systems do the same thing, they differ only in releasing you from your computer dungeon, if you want to get away occasionally and live like a real person.

The bottom line is, regardless of how much you automate your system, how much you rely on dynamic, real-time information, you simply can't avoid making a human decision when it comes to betting and nor should you want to. At best you must oversee your creation and be totally aware of what is happening at all times, especially if you have a healthy respect for your money.

At worst, you will need to spend countless hours, copying and pasting and doing manual tasks to format your data and make sense of it and eventually give you a selection and then leave you with a decision to bet or not. This is the hard way and I think would be a very good first step for any programmer/punter before moving up to the next level of semi or full automation.

These are just random thoughts on the subject of dynamic. Dynamic could be measured by the amount of time/work you spend doing tasks to actually make a list of selections. In this sense, whether or not you make a profit hardly seems to be the focal point. It becomes a question of how much time and effort you invest in your system versus any profits or otherwise :-)

Tailwag

Just a word about the race times for anyone using the them. I try and get them up on the net the evening prior to the race day and occasionally there can be an alteration to the starting times at one of the tracks the next day for some reason or other. Just be aware to check the list if relying on it. Also, I may not always be available to upload the times so there could be some missing days.

tailwag,
Good luck with your project, it looks promising. It all takes time as you are probably aware. One of the traps that is easy to fall into - and I am guilty of this - is to lose site of the objective to make a quid out of the TAB and get sidetracked with bells and whistles for the program.