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- - Dapto Dogs tonight (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12252)

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

And can I say Woofer,without trying to bag your ideas,because they also appear sound,you also are looking in the wrong place.
Although it may very well have been a bad night to release your theory or perhaps there is really a phantom curse about.

I do understand that your market did not allow for the box draw and a number of important factors.
And I did not in fact do the maths of actually working out your returns that would result in backing the overs at your posted prices.
It would be criminal of me to expect a profit on turnover,but I would expect your overlay prices to have returned better than a 17% loss.

And again,I didn't do the maths,but considering that not a single winner started at over your posted prices,I may be over hastily condemning your efforts.

Please appreciate that I do appreciate your effort and am not condemning you or your mode of assessment.
Could you please,if you did in fact have a bet or two on the meeting,notify if you actually had a winning or losing night.

Thanks Woofer.

Hi Moee,
The reason for my posting was to show just using Lengths beaten could give you a great insight into each race without the need to convert times etc an just using a formguide, I maybe should not have posted the estimated payoffs as each was based on Life to Date, this was to provide you with a measuring point, but that aside an just looking at the avg distance beaten IN grade here is my wrap up on each winner for the meeting.

Race 2 #6 Ranked 1st IN Grade
Race 3 #7 Ranked 2nd IN Grade (further investigation reveals this dog had a spell of 119 days, prior to the spell its avg time was 30.562 after spell its avg is 30.266 by far best dog in race)
Race 4 #3 Ranked 4th IN Grade, ranked 2nd best in 4th Grade
(this dog had substanially improved in 12 starts since a 35 day spell )
Race 5 #2 Had only 1 run In Grade(where it finished 19 lens from winner badly checked),was Ranked 1st in 5th grade
Race 7 #8 Ranked 2nd In Grade
Race 8 #7 Ranked 3rd In Grade and ranked 2nd in 4th Grade
Race 9 #7 Ranked 3rd IN Grade and ranked 1st in FFA
Race 10 #2 Ranked 2nd IN Grade
Race 11 #7 Ranked 7th IN Grade and ranked 1st in 4th grade

Hope the above helps somewhat...

Moeee,

If you watch enough dog races you will realise that the prices only flucuate widely with the smaller pool races. With 2 mins to go and a pool of over $2K you don't usually see as much flucuation. You can also check all 3 prices across the totes are similar.

Good luck with it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wesmip1

moeee,

I have a quick system worth following if you are interested. I don't follow it as I know it loses in the long run but it does work short term. I have given it to a number of people who use it everytime they go for a quick drink and bet at the pub.

It takes a whole 2 secs to work out who to bet on and will win enough of the time to pay for your drinks.

The rules are :
1. Find any dog race.
2. Look at boxes 3,4,5,6
3. Bet on any under $5. (place or win up to you)

Here are some results from today.

Results for tonight at Warragul :
1. Box 5 (2nd)
2. Box 4 and 5 ( NP and 1st $4.70 )
3. No Bet
4. Box 4 (NP)
5. No Bet
6. Box 5 (NP)
7. No Bet
8. Box 4 (1st $3.10)
9. Box 4 and Box 6 ( 1st $4.20 and NP)

8 selections for 3 winners ($12). POT is 50%.

The theory is that the inside boxes (3,4,5,6) ALWAYS have better value then the outside boxes. The price of < $5 shows this dog has a chance. You won't win them all but you will win enough to pay for your drinks ...

If I was at the pub tonight that would have easily covered my drinks ( outlay of $40 for a return of $60 ).
Good Luck.

Again looking at todays races so far :

Total 18 selections for 8 winners and a return of $24.70.

Good Luck.

Okay!
Here we go.
Sale Greyhounds tonight.
What I'm doing and why!

Race 1.
Not enough form revealed to be able to assess.

Race 2.
See comment re-Race 1.

Race 3.
Late start to betting activities tonight it seems.

Race 4.
There just seems to be too many crap greyhounds in existance!

Race 5.
1st leg of the quaddie!
Blue seems to be best of the inner boxes.Green got the time.
So first leg of the quaddie is 4 and 6.

Race 6.
Only 2 chances of winning.The 2 and the 4.

Race 7.
8,5,1,2,3
I think the top 2 for 1st with the red for second and the lot for 3rd in a trifecta.
Sets back about $6 for a half unit.

Race 8.
Bobby got 2 in this race.Could almost take home the quinella.
Bung in the pink gives a box Trifecta of 5,7 and 8.That's $3 for a full unit.
Plus a Box Quinella for $1 makes a total of 6 bucks.

Race 9.
2 starts , 2 wins ,Good time. Surely bet of the night.
6 to beat 2,1,7,8 for a half unit TRI.Cost = $6.

Race 10.
Okay,let's try an Exacta. 7 and 5 to beat 7,5,4,1,3 costs $4 for 50 cents.

Race 11.
Getting late.A running Double with 3 and 8 into 1,2,5,6
Again for 50 cents is another $4.

QUADDIE 4,6/2,4/5,8/5,7,8 for half a unit costs $12
Daily Double 2 and 4 into 5,7 and 8.Full unit costs $6.

Grand Total of $44.

POST MORTEM

Race 5.
Ordinary race to assess.Only went there because it was the 1st leg of the Quaddie.
Found 2 dogs but a scratching left with only number 4.
Starting at about even money,it got checked badly out at the start.And with it came the Dejavu feeling that no matter what I do,I am destined to be shown as the most pathetic tipster of all time.

Race 6.
Another poor race to assess.1st leg daily double and 2nd of the Quaddie.
Of the selections Find the winner at about Evens and the other runs unplaced.

Race 7.
Yellow was scratched leaving the pink on top.
Got knocked around a bit in the race.The other 3 mentioned were in the quinella.

Race 8.
3 tips here,bags the tiny quinella dividend and also the $8 daily double.
At least the selections are finishing closer to predicted than the earlier events.
Suppose it just goes to show when you have more interpretable data,you have a better show of coming up with the right answers.

Race 9.
Bet of the night turns up here and looks like a good result.
Then gets collared right on the line and our Trifecta gets away.
Financially,the night is becoming a nightmare,but the races are living up close to expectations.
Bit like Greg Chappell that time he did 3 ducks in a row."I'm playing well,I just keep getting out!".

Race 10.
Hallelujah!
$90 return for the Exacta!
The odds-on favourite,number 8, never ran a drum.
How I never included it in my selections,I can't recall.
Could I have mistakenly read my tips as a 3 instead of an 8?.And snagged a huge Exacta by mistake?
Whatever,I ain't giving it back!

Race 11 and 12.
Selections include both winners ,but only a tiny dividend returned for the running double.

SUMMARY.
Big profit on turnover could have been a loss.
Regardless of that,the main thing is that many selections finished towards the front of the field.
Will now do form study after checking for scratchings.

Class Table for most tracks

In a previous post I said i'd post the Class differences for the most popular tracks an distances, now how do you get any meaningful use out of these Tables.
Grab your formguide, looking at each dogs formlines match the track an distance to the Class Table, record that figure , then look at the margin beaten ( multiply the margin beaten by .066 , i know this isn't the best method but it suffices) now add that figure to the Class Table figure, if the dog won the event multiply the winning margin by .066 and subtract this from the Class Table figure.
Do that for all 5 or 6 Formlines then you will have a general idea of its Class, points to take note are if the dog has had a spell or short break between runs its better to use the most recent runs in this case, a further refinement is to use avg of the best two runs from the last 5 or 6 formlines

Cheers hope this helps you moee in your search ..
Albion Park520 -0.01
Albion Park600 0.08
Angle Park515 0.27
Ballarat450 0.22
Ballarat550 0.20
Bendigo430 0.22
Bendigo545 0.20
Canberra530 0.10
Cannington530 0.09
Cranbourne311 0.25
Cranbourne520 0.21
Dapto508 0.12
Devonport452 0.21
Geelong347 0.21
Geelong457 0.13
Geelong600 0.25
Gold Coast457 0.46
Healesville340 0.35
Hobart457 0.35
Horsham336 0.38
Horsham480 0.23
Launceston515 0.31
Mandurah530 0.19
Mount Gambier512 0.82
Nowra520 0.08
Richmond535 0.16
Sale440 0.19
Sale520 0.20
Sandown Park515 0.00
Sandown Park715 -0.27
South Coast472 0.14
The Meadows525 0.04
The Meadows600 -0.01
Traralgon298 0.22
Traralgon513 0.18
Tweed Heads420 0.52
Wangaratta403 0.46
Wangaratta474 0.22
Warragul424 0.15
Warrnambool332 0.26
Warrnambool450 0.20
Wentworth Park520 -0.02
sorry for the formatting again..