Hi!
I can check the results of first fav. versus second or third according to the Supertab divi. for place and win one minute before the jump (or ten min, or jumptime) for you to see what is the difference.
But if you bet on all races there is no point because as you know, you would lose, unless you have some selection process going.

On my own rating, betting second selections, on all tracks, all races all conditions, I would be down 1 to 2 % on outlay. I have worked out what tracks and classes "MY" rating works on, and I am doing quite well.
As to why it works on about 60% of tracks and not on others? I have no idea and given up trying to find a reason for it! Incidentally I do not take track conditions or barriers into account at all, seems to make no difference to strikerate or profit. Maybe other factors in my rating are overwhelming these?

Let me know if you want me to run the fav v. sec. for you. I can do it on the weekend.
Good luck.

Iomaca,

That would be really appreciated.
Just to be clear.

1/ If the fav is No1 at the 1 minute mark then we back the 2nd fav.

It will be interesting to see what comes of it, I know it will probably show a loss on turnover, but these things can be turned around depending on how you bet.

I won't repeat the stats on what I have been doing for the past 14 days ( all winning days) but they are mindblowing compared to S/R and POT I see posted on forums and people are more than happy with theirs.

As I said in another thread it doesn't matter HOW you achieve your profit as long as it is achieved.

I really appreciate you doing this, with a bit of luck it might benefit members of the forum.

All the best,

KC

On the "stats" that "guy" "sent in" from his "little bit of analysis" which just happened to prove really really handy for the writer of the article? The author will have "made them up", all by "himself", because, well, that "magazine" is a joke and do it all the time.

Interesting, I had a set of ratings that were very similar. Used to work on some tracks and particularly in some months. I had the ratings going back about 10 years and just used to bet on meetings where there was a minimum of 6% Profit for that track for that month over the previous 10 years results. Track conditions made a difference but barrier was pretty much inconsequential (generally better barrier slightly higher strike rate but lower POT).

KV

Hi
On this track discussion, I was on a UK forum site last year and the discussion referred to barrier draws. Each track and distance had a barrier draw bias. Some had inner barriers with a marked bias, others the middle or the outer. Such was the bias some trainers withdraw if they get a bad draw. They even posted the list with the degree of bias. The very next post highlighted the factor of slipstreaming and the effects prevailing winds and the position of the horse especially coming into the finish. All out of my league but may explain why there are differences in tracks.
Regards Beton

I ran the No.1 idea through my data base some time ago over 10,000 races & the SR was approx 30% at very short prices.

The 1st race of the day of any track 7 days a week had the strongest SR for some reason 36%SR. It showed a small loss of approx -10%

Fav was based on SP .

So I feel it would be a strong idea to leave race one out all together if looking at laying Favs based on those stats.

Cheers.

I forgot to add that those figures were based on all No.1 with no filters added.

Yesterday none of the selections in either system won - a good day.

Two selections today for the No.1 system:
Cranbourne R5 - Holmesa ($3.50)
Townsville R3 - Estelito ($2.50).

Non-topweight system
Penola R5 no.2 - Deva Rock ($2.50)
Penola R7 no.4 - Fava ($3.50)

Have been a silent observer of this discussion as I have been laying no.1 favourites for a while yet have been using a progression staking system so can get a bit nerve racking. Wasn't Estelito in a maiden and therefore ineligible for your system michaelg?

Hi, Pugnosis. Yes, you're right, it should not have been a selection. I've got to be more careful. I hope you're winning with your laying system.

My very limited records of the system indicates there could be a bias with No.1 when fave. It seems to be overbet which means the other runners could represent value. I am only basing this on betting around No.1. Since last Sat by dutch-betting every other horse using the pre-post prices in the Telegraph has produced a 26% POT with the NSW TAB. But this is from only 12 races. Yet compered with Non-Topweight System, the POT after 17 races is only 10%. However, it is much too early to draw conclusions about any bias. Pugnosis, maybe you might have noticed something similar, or maybe my observation is just a temporary aberration?

Two selections today:
Canberra R2 no.1 - My Honour ($2.50)
Port Mac R2 no.1 - Gallery Hawk ($2.70)

Two selections for the Non-Topweight System:
Moonee Valley R5 no.6 - Road To Athens ($3.50)
Warrnambool R1 no.5 - Super Gino ($3.00)