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-   -   Fav betting with a twist (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12862)

crash 19th March 2006 02:36 PM

Well done wesmip1.

It looks like you are onto a profitable flat stakes system anyway [positive expectation] , so your progression overall is being paid for by the bookies. Good going so far anyway. Keep it up mate.

wesmip1 19th March 2006 07:49 PM

crash,

Its positive at the moment. Give it another 100 meetings though.

Courses to use Monday :

35% Course favs or Higher
- Narromine
40% Course Favs or Higher
- None
Good Luck

wesmip1 20th March 2006 03:54 PM

35% Course favs or Higher
Narromine - WIN $3.40 third race = $4 ( Largest bet $10 total = $30)

Results Overall :

35% Course favs or higher
Meetings : 23
Profit : $35
Highest Bet : $220

40% Course Favs or Higher
Meetings : 7
Profit : $56
Highest Bet : $10

wesmip1 20th March 2006 03:56 PM

Courses to use Tuesday :

35% Course favs or Higher
- Warrick Farm (39.1%)
40% Course Favs or Higher
- None
Good Luck.

wesmip1 21st March 2006 03:00 PM

Another winner today in the first race. So far there has only been 1 meeting which had no fav (in the 35% favs). This has easily been offset by the other 23 meetings which all produced a fav winner (most within the first two races).

Also I am doing this on Unitab prices ... Best Flucuation or Best Tote would be higher. Today unitab had the winner at 1.60 but it was available for 1.70 on other totes.

35% Course favs or Higher
Warrick Farm - WIN $1.60 first race = $6 ( Largest bet $10 total = $10)

Results Overall :

35% Course favs or higher
Meetings : 24
Profit : $41
Highest Bet : $220

40% Course Favs or Higher
Meetings : 7
Profit : $56
Highest Bet : $10

Good Luck

wesmip1 21st March 2006 09:01 PM

Wednesdays courses to follow :

35% Course favs or Higher
  • Albany (36%)
  • Newcastle (39.39%)
  • Sandown (37%)
40% Course Favs or Higher
  • None
Finding courses with 40% winners is suprisingly difficult mid week.

Stix 22nd March 2006 08:36 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
I will use a progression betting so that I always return a profit if the fav wins. The Bets will start at $10.
Wesmip1,

I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed (Ok, ok.... enuff of the applause everyone...), so here is a dumb question (expected, I know :p).... are you betting to target a certain profit figure? i.e 15%, 25%return? or just a return greater than your outlay ?

wesmip1 22nd March 2006 11:01 AM

Stix,

Just to return my outlay + $0.10.
Not much really. But just testing out a theory here.

Thanks

wesmip1 22nd March 2006 05:22 PM

Todays Results :

35% Course favs or Higher
Albany - WIN $3.30 first race = $13 ( Largest bet $10 total = $10)
Newcastle - WIN $3.60 fifth race = $28 ( Largest bet $30 total = $80)
Sandown - WIN $2.10 fourth race = $14 ( Largest bet $40 total = $70)

40% Course favs or Higher
No Races

Results Overall :

35% Course favs or higher
Meetings : 27
Profitable Meetings : 26
Unprofitable Meetings: 1
Profit : $96
Highest Bet : $220

40% Course Favs or Higher
Meetings : 7
Profitable Meetings : 7
Profit : $56
Highest Bet : $10

Good Luck.

wesmip1 22nd March 2006 05:27 PM

Thursdays courses to follow :

35% Course favs or Higher
  • Hawksberry (38%)
  • Ipswich (37%)
40% Course Favs or Higher
  • None
Good Luck.


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