Wednesday Selections


Ballarat

Race 3
2 AFFAIR OF HONOUR
5 PICNIC ON MARS
4 KELTWIG
Race 4
2 HARVARD
8 BONNELLE
4 NUCLEAR ROO
Race 5
6 CARRIGAN
10 JASMINS SECRET
12 DEFINATELY SO
Race 6
2 RUBIJACK
5 FOR ME TO SEE
6 BURBERRY LANE
Race 7
3 MR DANE
1 PRIDE OF WESTBURY
9 WINNERSAREGRINNERS
Race 8
8 LANCETTIER
10 UTILITY
6 FOREST KNIGHT
Race 9
2 JAYEMZED
4 COUNT TO ZERO
8 CLASSICARL
Race 10
4 GENERAL BAYTON
5 STEPTOE
2 MESSAGE BANK

Hawkesbury

Race 2
7 KISS OFF
3 CHAUFUHR
1 GALILEO COLOURS
Race 4
3 ALLEGRA
9 MEAD
8 MASLINS BEACH
Race 6
3 MR BRAVEHEART
1 EZERICO
5 THEBOAB
Race 7
6 SUNSET RUN
5 TRIPLE DEE
3 LANTWIN
Race 8
8 TRUST ME HONEY
10 KADAZAN
5 SANTANA MAGIC

Wednesday Results


Ballarat

Race 3
2 AFFAIR OF HONOUR 3RD
5 PICNIC ON MARS 7TH
4 KELTWIG SCR
Race 4
2 HARVARD WON $4.40
8 BONNELLE 2ND
4 NUCLEAR ROO 7TH
Race 5
6 CARRIGAN 10TH
10 JASMINS SECRET SCR
12 DEFINATELY SO 2ND
Race 6
2 RUBIJACK WON $2.40
5 FOR ME TO SEE 4TH
6 BURBERRY LANE 11TH
Race 7
3 MR DANE SCR
1 PRIDE OF WESTBURY 3RD
9 WINNERSAREGRINNERS WON $2.30
Race 8
8 LANCETTIER 3RD
10 UTILITY SCR
6 FOREST KNIGHT 8TH
Race 9
2 JAYEMZED SCR
4 COUNT TO ZERO WON $4.20
8 CLASSICARL 3RD
Race 10
4 GENERAL BAYTON UNPL
5 STEPTOE UNPL
2 MESSAGE BANK WON $2.90

Hawkesbury

Race 2
7 KISS OFF UNPL
3 CAUFUHR 3RD
1 GALILEO COLOURS WON $2.25
Race 4
3 ALLEGRA 2ND
9 MEAD WON $1.60
8 MASLINS BEACH 3RD
Race 6
3 MR BRAVEHEART UNPL
1 EZERICO UNPL
5 THEBOAB UNPL
Race 7
6 SUNSET RUN UNPL
5 TRIPLE DEE 2ND
3 LANTWIN WON $2.30
Race 8
8 TRUST ME HONEY 2ND
10 KADAZAN UNPL
5 SANTANA MAGIC UNPL

BALANCE SHEET

ALL SELECTIONS
Selections 317
Winners 68
All selections strike rate 21.45%
Average Price $4.35
Gross return 295.85
All selections POT -6.67%

TOP SELECTIONS
Selections 115
Winners 32
Top Selections Strike rate 27.83%
Average Price $3.40
Gross return 108.95
Top Selections POT -5.26%

Thursday Selections


Canterbury

Race 1
2 SUSSMAN
6 THEN AGAIN
7 PRINCIPATUS
Race 3
3 WARRING
6 SINUOUS
2 STRONG CHOICE
Race 5
3 ANABATIK
7 FRENCH TYCOON
5 ABDICATION
Race 6
7 REFEREES
6 CRIMSON GODDESS
3 FASHFIELD
Race 7
4 TOR'S DANCER
6 RAHEIGHTS
1 CARA Y CRUZ

Cranbourne

Race 5
1 PAVORARCHI
6 HEAD PREFECT
4 ROUGH NIGHT
Race 6
2 SHADOW
5 NO MORE RULES
4 SKI FOR KINGS
Race 7
2 BABIJCZUK
3 PIETRO VANNUCCI
4 INCINERATOR
Race 8
2 ESTERMATE
4 WALK UP START
1 PRESENCE
Race 9
1 IZZA MONO
3 CENT OF A DANE
5 MELETE

You did well The Guru, but in my humble opinion you were attempting the impossible.

It is not possible for top three selections to show an overall profit long term based on tote odds.

It is not possible for top selections to show an overall profit long term based on tote odds.

If for example you had the ability to price your top selections then you may have achieved a profit.

But taking any tote odds offered to you about each top selection means you were attempting the impossible if the aim was to make a long term profit.

To only be down 5% or so on turnover was a great effort.

I appreciate your feedback Mr Logic. Thank you.

The aim of these selections was to test a set of ratings that I had been working on and to do it in a public forum (for feedback and a public audit system in case I did a mistake with the results).

I believe that if I'm going to test something then give it the full blown treatment. If it stands up to "final bookie price" (I wasn't using tote odds, although at times they were better!!) then the ratings are in for some further investigation. If these ratings show a profit with lousy odds then all I need to improve the bottom line is to go out shopping for the best odds.

I have been flat out lately so I have to put these selections on hold for the time being. I will continue with them in the new year (especially if there is interest here).

G'day all,

Been out of action for a while, life takes you in different directions sometimes.

Just popping in to say I'm back but not to do these ratings as done previously i.e every race, every day.

I will be posting only TOP SELECTIONS i.e top rated runners and I won't be able to do the ratings everyday so it will be a littel haphazard but I still want to test these ratings so I'll persist whenever I have some free time.

Will post tomorrow's selections later...

Cheers

Taree Top Raters

Race 1 Rohirrim
Race 2 Up Until Now
Race 3 Marozia
Race 4 Nuclear Strike
Race 5 Igotthelastone
Race 6 Ultra Magic
Race 7 Pimpala Diamond
Race 8 Starman

Well it has been awhile but I'm back :)

Looking at Swan Hill tomorrow.

It looks a good day's racing for day one of Swan Hill's three day carnival with good sized fields and the 473 metre straight should allow all horses to have their chance if they are good enough.

There's a few runners we are interested in tomorrow, (depending of course on price): -

R3. Mega Star Milly seemingly, is coming off stronger form lines than her rivals. She has been competitive in all her races to date and with barrier 7 and Brad Rawiller on board she gets plenty of ticks. The prospect of a firmer track and back to 1200m also appear in her favour.

We are looking for $3.50 or better.


R5. Mookatmee couldn't have been more impressive last start, coming from the rear of the field to win his maiden comfortably at Ballarat, beating Swirly Dream by 1.5L. Swirly Dream, although still a maiden, has proven competitive in much stronger races. The only real query is whether Mookatmee is just as good on top of the ground, but we were sufficiently impressed last start, to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

The surface query may help us get our price of $3.50 or better.


R8. Royal Ida is the class horse in this race and a proven weight carrier. Some of these, (especially the claiming horses), get in pretty light by comparison, but Royal Ida has given away plenty of weight to better rivals in the past and the first up run on his less preferred (slow) surface over 1000m at the Valley was good enough to demonstrate that he is in for another good preparation. The step up to 1200 metres and also a good track are both pluses. Plenty of pace in this race which should set things up for Royal Ida to come swooping down the long Swan Hill straight.

Anything better than $4.00 is acceptable to us here.


R10. Knockout was less than a length from Skiddaw Peak, Blitzem Riley and Trick Of Light at Sale over the 1600m last prep. His last start on a heavy track at Mornington in a C4 was also full of merit. We think he is the best bet of the day here, stepping up to the mile for the first time this prep, and back to a firmer track which we also think he prefers. The inside barrier is not ideal as he likes to get back in his races, but at least he'll get a soft run in transit from that draw and the Swan Hill straight should give him sufficient time to get out and run over the top of his rivals.

His best form is a few classes better than anything he meets here and we are interested in anything better than $4.00, which should be on.


Best tomorrow is in the last - Knockout.
Good luck all.

I am keen on a few around the country today.

There is no time for detailed explanations but here is my selections and minimum prices.

Eagle Farm R5. Fritz's Princess at $4.50

Flemington R5. Beaming at $3.50

Flemington R7. Live In Vain at $4.00

Swan Hill R5. Dhuragoon at $3.00

For those interested in my thoughts on the feature race today, The Stradbroke, I like two at generous odds:-

Snipers Bullet and Pinnacles at $10+

My best bet for today - Live In Vain

Moonee Valley

R4 - Two formlines here with plenty coming from the Sylvan Courtrace and Fuji Fantasy coming off a C6 metro win. Out of the Sylvan Court race I thought the winner was good and the runner up Power of Love was unlucky. It's arguable to say which one was the better run when you consider that Power of Love was held up but had the gun run on the rail whereas Sylvan Court sat three wide from about the 500m and kicked on to win. Power of Love meets Sylvan Court 1.5kg better at the weights but Sylvan Court has more scope for improvement and tends to race handier. Fuji Fantasy was very good last start when sitting three wide midfield and proving too strong for Raeburn with a good space to third. Fuji Fantasy met Sylvan Court two start back with the points going to Slyvan Court by 0.4L and Fuji Fantasy meets Sylvan Court 1kg better at the weights. Barrier one and Childs on Fuji Fantasy are two big advantages as he can sit her closer than usual without doing much work. Leaning towards Fuji Fantasy.

R5 - I'm leaning to Electrostatic. First time on the track but looks suitable with the short straight. The extra give on this track seems to her liking as well. Her run two starts back was very good when she resumed after a 63 day let up, set a strong tempo, kicked 3-4L clear in the straight and was run down late by backmarkers Amberino and Hanna Rossa over 1300m. Amberino franked that form winning next start.

R6 - Kaphero even with the big weight.

Mortlake

R5 - The up and comer Boss it's Over will be hard to beat with 52kg. The old Airstream could have given him 5kg but he is short of his best. Starzando looks the danger, much better on good tracks and will be hard to run down over 1300m. Has a 3L fifth to Blitz'em Riley over 1400m to his credit.

Murray Bridge

R7 - Rockford Bay and Satara met last start in the Mildura Cup finishing 1L second and 1.2L third respectively. Rockford Bay was dissapointing first up after two trial wins but blinkers on switched him on last start. Good effort by Satara to drop 300m in distance and get so close, he was closing late so the step up to the mile looks perfect. He put togeather two wins and his last start third since the blinkers came off three starts back. A win and a second from two starts at this tricky track. Leaning to Satara.