Crash seems to be implying that that an increase in favourite strike rates is a good thing,

Surely the goal is to have racing as competitive as possible? That should help eliminate turnoffs such as small fields, walkovers, an excess of runners on the limit weight, and horses past their prime no longer able to compete. Not to mention the suspicion that certain results have been prearranged by the participants.

With a proper RBP system (as opposed to the one in question) that goal would be approached.

However this desired increased competition would cause a decrease in favourite strike rates.

Hi JF,

No, I'm not implying that at all. I'm just questioning the logic of Chrome's post [an increase in punters nailing the favorite yet there is no increase in the % of favorites winning]. It doesn't make sense. A mathematical oxymoron [?].

I'd be interested in your opinion or if you agree, a considered explanation. Read Chrome's post.

Hi crash,

This is indeed a topic that can be construed many ways and dissected in various manners.

Looking at Favourites, with all the technology and information at hand, one would imagine an increase in strike rate, yet there is none.
My take on this, is that here we have a "group" of horses, which for the most part have and always have had very obvious credentials. Therefore advances in technology are of no real impact on which is selected as favourite.
The advances have merely impacted on price to an extent of firm favourites or easy favourites.

Therefore the strike rate will not change because only a certain percentage of them will ever win.

My opinion is that the actual horses selected have not changed to any real degree to impact the strike rate, but the prices have been impacted.
I have no hard evidence to back this up, it's only observation and conjecture, however, it is my bone of contention that a $1.50 favourite today may well have been $1.60 or $1.70 favourite 50 years ago. A $6.00 favourite may well have been a $4.50 favourite 50 years ago.

In summary, I believe that the market has become a truer reflection of a favourite's chances and that we are getting it more correct, but the strike rate has not and will probably never change.

This is only my take on it, and I have no proof.

Have a great New Year

Chrome,

The question still remains unanswered, why hasn't access to far superior form analysis through high tec. at our fingertips to access and collate a far greater amount of form facts, enabled punters to recognize more than 30% of 'winning horses' ? It should, but it hasn't.
They are not being spotted because they are not being bet into favoritism.

I'd just prices going down is a separate issue and has more to do with a smaller punting market [far greater competition and diversification of the punting dollar especially into new and varied exotics and Sport's betting] and a corresponding increase in bookie overall book percentages and TAB takeout.

Because 70% of those favoured horses will be beaten by horses which should not be favourite, that's just the way it goes.

Of the horses that beat the favourites, no amount of extra information will make them favourite because the group favourite has obvious credentials to make it favourite.

Example:

A horse that won it's last start in a Group1 race gets rolled by a maiden.
No amount of information will make the maiden favourite, even though it won, because the Group 1 horse has the best form, best time, best class, best ratings etc etc.
The only way the maiden will be favourite is if the trackwork is public and has won the trial in better time / lengths. Computers will have no bearing on this.

Even if favourites won 95% of races, you couldn't get it to 100%, no matter what information you had at hand.

I suspect the 30% will never improve because there is still luck, fitness, jockey, going, distance queries attributing to demise, no information can predict luck in running, only impact price.

So prices are affected, not strike rate.

[QUOTE=Chrome Prince].

Of the horses that beat the favourites, no amount of extra information will make them favourite because the group favourite has obvious credentials to make it favourite.
QUOTE]

That doesn't seem to make sense. Favorites don't have the word 'favorite' tattooed on their rump. They are only fav. because the punter using the form info. at hand, bets them into favoritism. No other reason. Punters now have more info. and [therefore] should be betting more eventual winners into outright favoritism shouldn't they?

Perhaps winners nowadays are just harder to spot than they used to be [?] So what high tech. has done has allowed punters to maintain the fav. win % status-quo, which would have otherwise slipped lower.

After further thought on the topic as to why payout prices are lower, we should look at the fact that as there are a lot more race meetings now, the race prize pools are less because the punting $ is being spread further.

It wasn't that many years ago that all we had was basically Wed. and Sat. race meetings. Since then the gambling dollar has spread into pokies, sports betting, tattslotto ect. and a whole new world of exotic bet types beyond the good old tri. and quin.
Due to all that prize pool thinning and punting $ diversification
going on, we now have good reasons for lower payouts. It takes far less betting money to move prices down in a smaller prize pool.

Sound about right?

Class of the race doesn't really matter to me... the challenge is to pick the winner at decent value out of a group of race horses that are similarly graded due to class... ie open class horses race in open class races... maidens run in maidens, class 4 horses run in class 4 races , group horses run in group races.... no matter what the class the challenge remains the same...... it can be just as difficult to pick a winner in a group 1 race (EG FIELDS OF OMAGH 20-1 cox plate; DELTA BLUES 16-1 MELBOURNE CUP or even DANDY ANDY at 200-1 in an Australian Cup) AS IT IS TO PICK A WINNER in a maiden..... MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT LOWER CLASS races especially in country areas in distances from 1300 and above offer the best betting opportunities.....

class (for a while)
 

i think that we place too much emphasis on class
due to the temporary nature of a horses good season or half season they go off quickly and the trick is to pick the next good thing not the last good thing.

the best variables are recent form barrier draw and recent racing (unless short distance) good form and an inside barrier are handy when it comes to getting a price.