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-   -   Exploiting Power Pays (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=15357)

jfc 4th February 2007 12:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
jfc,

I could be wrong, but I was informed that during PP, they weren't.
If they are then I stand corrected.


I can't find any evidence of such Power Play Party Pooping.

I note the oufit offering Maxidiv =Best( Best(Tote), SP ) claims Maxidivs were offered on their results page.

I suspect Bookies would have difficulties covering expenses during the Power Plays but the alternative is losing patrons.

mad 4th February 2007 01:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I'd like to see a closing bet time for every race too. I'm sick to death of watching the jump prices of winners shorten AFTER the race.

Yesterday I had a win bet on r8 in Brisbane on a $9.70 jump price runner [Stab] that went down to $5.50 after the race was called. The fact the horse won was no compensation as when I can, I judge my bets close to start time as 'value' [bet] or 'no value' [no bet]. Getting caught out holding subjectively judged poor value bets win or lose, is poor punting.
As I rarely back favorites, 'top fluctuation' from bookies is [usually] a waste of time. Stab overall generally pays better odds on longer priced runners.

I'm not a Betfair punter, but I'm starting to seriously think about it.
Agree 100%.
Had this happen to me during the week. Had the opportunity of taking fixed odds but the premium available on the tote was sufficient and i "chanced it". Needless to say a stack came for the Nag and i'm left standing there holding me tool. I was F'ing furious as the Nag duly saluted. LOL, serves me right i suppose.

Anyways, i think a serious punter would be CRaZy not to have a few quid in a Betfair account. To valuable an "out" not to.

Chrome Prince 4th February 2007 05:31 PM

It won't really make any difference if they close the pools early.

In the old days they used to close with 10 minutes to go and it took a further three minutes or so til the pool updated.

So you were still having dividends crunched in after the close of pools.
The only difference was that it happened earlier.
Odds are that if the pools closed early, the bookies and Betfair would close early too.

Bhagwan 6th February 2007 02:58 AM

I believe there is a 90 sec loop between bets placed & to when it finally shows up on a internet screen.

So it makes no difference as to when close off betting occures , the same situation would happen.

The only way it could work is if TAB refuses all further bets except yours, after the 90 sec loop has done its thing.

Cheers.

Merriguy 6th February 2007 08:39 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash

I'm not a Betfair punter, but I'm starting to seriously think about it.
I'm sure you would enjoy the challenge, Crash. Certainly produce a few lines on these pages from you!. The following words, however, are from a wise person on the B/F forum:

"normal life of a betfair punter


find bf, yippee 20% better odds, start backing, end up losing

start laying, its easy you have the field on your side, end up losing

start laying outsiders they never win,end up losing

start backing "two horse races" the outsiders never win,end up losing

start trading, easy in and out ,in and out, all green, end up losing






start backing......."

denis m 6th February 2007 11:24 AM

JFC what are power plays

jfc 6th February 2007 11:43 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by denis m
JFC what are power plays


http://www.thoroughbrednews.co.nz/s...acing/?id=27788

Chrome Prince 6th February 2007 06:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Merriguy

"normal life of a betfair punter


find bf, yippee 20% better odds, start backing, end up losing

start laying, its easy you have the field on your side, end up losing

start laying outsiders they never win,end up losing

start backing "two horse races" the outsiders never win,end up losing

start trading, easy in and out ,in and out, all green, end up losing

start backing......."


And why is this the case for a great many punters?

(a) The twenty percent or more on some runners occurs because they have diminished chance. The one's with increased chance actually pay less than the TAB (overall).

(b) Punters don't research enough before diving in head first.

(c) They don't set a percentage limit on lay/back prices, but chase prices, then fear they'll miss out so take what's available.

(d) Over indulgence - getting set at a price and it moves a lot, so they bet more, it moves even more, so they bet even more. One great hit suddenly is too much risk either way.

Laying horses isn't a licence to print money, but picking and choosing what to lay and at what price is a subcontract to earn your own.

I just had a horror day with regards to laying, worse possible result for a long time, but I know the way I've done it, the odds are in my favour and I can recoup them quickly because my exposure is set at no more than even money.

the freek 6th February 2007 09:38 PM

Chrome, I hope this doesn't sound like a dumb question ( I've not got into laying yet) but when you say your exposure is set at even money, are you only laying short price favorites or laying more than one horse in a race?

Chrome Prince 6th February 2007 11:51 PM

Chrome, I hope this doesn't sound like a dumb question ( I've not got into laying yet) but when you say your exposure is set at even money, are you only laying short price favorites or laying more than one horse in a race?

Often I'm laying short priced favourites, but also others.
I have learned the hard way that anything can happen in this game, so I bet back a percentage of my stake onto the win to limit my exposure to even money or less at any given point.
After busting a bank I now am doing pretty well, except I had a shocker today, all in all I'm well ahead of the game because of the exposure limits.


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