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crash 14th February 2007 01:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
All a bit weird.
Looked at 2 races [3 and 5 at Sandown] and lousy odds on offer. Everyone seems to be trying to lay maybe[?]

R3 Bowhunter $11.20 Stab / Betfair $8
r5 Prince Juene $5.90 Stab / Betfair $4

I watched Bowhunter go $9 then $2 then $8 [?]

Had a couple of $6 bets on each just to kick off. What the hell.


Well that was lucky. First blood to me on Betfair with Bowhunter home at $8 [paid $8.30w Stab]. I'm happy with $8w but should have had $50 on it !

AngryPixie 14th February 2007 01:45 PM

Most of the action is in the last few minutes just like the other markets. Generally up until then the Betfair prices are much worse than on the tote. A rule of thumb I use is that if you can get on at a price that looks pretty similar to the Tote prices early in the betting, your probably looking at a runner that is going to be a big drifter. Although this is just an observation. I've not tested it.

crash 14th February 2007 01:49 PM

Thanks for that tip. I was like a lost little lamb, but at least I took some Layer's money :-)

jfc 14th February 2007 01:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
All a bit weird.
Looked at 2 races [3 and 5 at Sandown] and lousy odds on offer. Everyone seems to be trying to lay maybe[?]

R3 Bowhunter $11.20 Stab / Betfair $8
r5 Prince Juene $5.90 Stab / Betfair $4

I watched Bowhunter go $9 then $2 then $8 [?]

Had a couple of $6 bets on each just to kick off. What the hell.


Crash,

I suggest you download the Betfair Advantage Tool.

It claims that Bowhunter at jump was backable at $10.50 and paid over 20% better than all TABs.

In this instance you probably would have been better off offering to back it at (say) $11.50. Rather than paying the virgin tax.

Chances are for a longshot like that you would have been hit.

If not then you could always negotiate a bit down as a last resort.

crash 14th February 2007 02:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
Crash,


It claims that Bowhunter at jump was backable at $10.50 and paid over 20% better than all TABs.

In this instance you probably would have been better off offering to back it at (say) $11.50. Rather than paying the virgin tax.
.


Will get the Advantage download.

I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !

AngryPixie 14th February 2007 02:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !

Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure I guess. Nice job.

mad 14th February 2007 02:15 PM

Howdy Crash,
Good to hear you're a convert. Soon enough you'll forget all about the TAB's and wonder where this service has been all your life, LOL.

As for your questions, personally i prefer to use the bookies fixed price markets as a comparison, as the tote can often be difficult to judge with all the jumping around. Plus you know that should the tote be displaying a large overlay to the bookies market, plenty o' moola will be acomin'. Similarly, Bowhunter (Col Tidy + IAS) opened at 8's and 7's respectively, drifted to 9's before shortening to close at 8's. Under this arrangment you might set a price of 10's on betfair and should things move against you, take the 9's with the bookie etc etc. Certainly should you see $10.50, you would be inclined to have a nibble. Just my preference, but seems to work. (EDIT: I should add that the above would apply to the more fancied runners).

Oh and don't forget to include a 5% premium in your betfair prices to compensate for the commission.

AngryPixie 14th February 2007 02:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
Thanks for that tip. I was like a lost little lamb
Wait till you start trading the FTSE Intra's in the Financial's.

Chrome Prince 14th February 2007 02:30 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !


crash,

You'll notice some very strange prices on Betfair.
In some instances you can make a killing, others you'll wonder why bother with Betfair at all.
It's about picking and choosing I guess.
Also you have to allow that you are going from a big percentage takeout to a slim one. Therefore prices will generally be over what you expect.
Within this though are movements that can definitely be taken advantage of (including early markets).

crash 14th February 2007 02:49 PM

Thanks for all the info. from everyone. Hopefully I can fill a few jam jars [little ones to start with].


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