If Northerly starts, what are his chances ?

Dude.

I fell for the media hype some years back"re MC"imports.I had a sizeable wack at Oscar Schindler,and another year at Double Trigger!!!!Twice bitten,no more!! If you believe all the media ranting and raving,just box the imports in trifecta and first4,and get in the queue to collect!!My own thoughts lie with an old master in the form of one octagenerian,namely George Hanlon.I had a nibble at Mr. Prudent a month ago at 200/1.Proven two miler,geting on a bit,but aren't we all?I was happy with that bet after watching him run on stoutly into third place on saturday.Rain Guage is my main selection and I also backed it a while back,took 50/1 .It is also cherry ripe after it's run on Saturday.What a joke it was not given the race on protest....only in Melbourne??I intend to have a good go at the trifecta and try to skim off some of the dollars the once a year "mug money"provides.Break a leg guys,cheers from the Angel

Just noticed that betting on Northerly in Melbourne Cup - NSW TAB fixed odds, has been suspended.

Courtesy AAP

Dual Cox Plate winner Northerly will not run in next week's Melbourne Cup with trainer Fred Kersley opting to take him home to Perth on Wednesday.

Patrick Payne, who rode Northerly to his second Cox Plate win on Saturday, said he thought Northerly would have been a great Cup chance but that the trainer knew best.

Kersley believed it would be too much to ask Northerly to carry 60kg topweight in Cup after his hard spring campaign which netted three Group One wins.

"I would have liked to ride him in the Cup but he doesn't owe me anything," Payne said.

"Fred knows what is best for his horse."

Instead, Payne will be aboard English contender Jardines Lookout who he rode for the first time at Flemington this morning.

Jardines Lookout worked over 1600 metres on the Viscoride track and Payne said he was very pleased with the workout.

I think the handicapper got it wrong when he added 2 kg to Northerly's Melbourne Cup weight after the Caulfield Cup for the following reasons.

1. Fred Kersley probably would have started the horse at 58 kg and maybe even 59 kg, but 60kg is a big psychological hurdle.

2. The horse was weighted at 58 kg originally, even though he was untried at anything over 2000 metres. I believe a horse should be weighted in the cup, not only on what they have achieved but their achievement at distances similar to the cup. I would say that the handicapper is probably not the most popular person with the race club at the moment because they have probably lost their major drawcard and possibly the only chance we have of keeping the cup in Australia.

Take the raiders at odds of over 10/1 in a quinella with the field and you could clean up!

By the way, have we all written Bart off this year?

What are the chances of another Cup for J.B. ?

Bart has a very very slight chance. Only if Miss Meliss got runner up or win the SAAB. I don't think so.

My favour is on Hail, Pugin and Daliapour.

Hail ran well in NZ when he got 3rd to Prized Gem and DS.

Pugin with the handicapped weight compare to the favourite Vinnie Roe.

Daliapour with one of the best jockey in the world M Kinane.

don't you just love this race?
we anylise and rack our brain for all the possible chances and why.
i think i,ll get the old pin out:****
no really i have always admired the n.z horses and its a good record.
hail mmmmm!
its not a good race to make money out of for such a unkown high risk.
but come cup day i,ll be there with you all tickets in had pumping and yelling.
good luck everyone.

"little fish are sweet" an old english saying.

My top pick will be the most qualified horse in the weights under 59kg. At this stage that is Jardines Lookout with Patrick Payne on board...wouldn't it be a fairytale. Wins Cox Plate and MC on pick up rides other than originally intended.
Got to have a go at the exotics with the amounts in the pools. I take a standout for theTRIF and F4.

My top pick will be the most qualified horse in the weights under 59kg. At this stage that is Jardines Lookout with Patrick Payne on board...wouldn't it be a fairytale. Wins Cox Plate and MC on pick up rides other than originally intended.
Got to have a go at the exotics with the amounts in the pools. I take a standout for theTRIF and F4.