Privateer

I have been spending time adding the average prize money stat to all my metro results. I have not completed this yet, but I have seen 1 interesting pattern so far that I will be definitely looking into when I have completed it.

With the 7 days I have started doing some work on this and found something that I thought was interesting. It is a stat as to certain runners on a 7day back up not to bet on as they have a very poor strike rate. To me this is as good as finding a stat that provides you with a good percentage of winners/ place getters. However I have only check this out over 6 months and need to check back further

A Question. I only want to bet on runners paying more that $4.00 to win, so what I have been doing is eliminating them before I look at my stats. To me this makes logical sense or should I, as you have said in one of your previous posts, to look at them all together and not separate them?


Wise one

Mark Hunter
 

Can anyone help? I've been following Mark Hunter's tips on Saturdays with great success - I get them from the Saturday Morning Mail a great free internet publication, but wonder if I can get midweek tips online somewhere???

Hi Wise One
That 7 day stat is something I came accross also.
The only races that has some profit at times, is if its a LSW within 7 days in races 1200m exactly & that was only after putting it through a number of filters.

Runners within 5 days exactly were even worse.
The only time there was some success was if today wason a Monday only & its last run was on a Metro track & today its on a Pov or Country track.

Another stat was the biggest paying winners started approx 31-45 days prior.
I ran this over the fist 5 in the pre-post market & it was amazing how many blew in the market , yet a number of them won at double digit odds.

Thanks for sharing your findings.

Cheers.

Wise One

Glad to hear you're getting on with it.

Re the $4 minimum odds....when you have established something like a method you think may be profitable, include your minimum odds suggestion as one of your selection criteria/filters to support your method. There is no harm in ruling a line through the <$4 immediately though.

I have done the stats on pre post prices and use what I discovered as one of my filters. I would strongly suggest you cap a maximum PP odds too and work within those prices. I had a recent winner that was under double figures PP but paid just over 20/1. That is not uncommon.

On the 7 days thing, let me just say this, when I have applied all of my selection criteria and come up with a horse that qualifies and I notice that it is backing up in exactly 7 days, I double my bet! Don't forget though that I only ever bet on Metro meetings and 90% of the time only those on a Saturday. All of my statistical analysis involved Metro racing only so what I say is really only applicable to those meetings.

Cheers

Privateer

Privateer


I have only been looking at Sat metro races in Bris,Melb,Syd.

I have also deleted some races before starting like Hurdle, Steeples and 2 Yo Old

Also I rule out races on slow and heavy track conditions


Wise One

Privateer

A question about how to look at stats

I have a total of 17484 runners of which 4611 placed (including winners) and 1536 were winners only

The way I look at them is all the 17484 runners and see what runners I can rule out to increase my overall % place getters and winners

Or should I just look at all the place getters/winners and find what are the most common occurring stats and removes the least number of runners?

Thanks

Wise One