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-   -   So who here is lay betting? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17078)

King Cugat 6th January 2008 02:57 PM

Quote:
For arguments sake, I stake 6 with a liability of 100 so 106 is removed from my account......
no
only $100 is taken from your account & $6 from the backers account

+the 'stake' is the term for money, a backer puts up....generally

Chrome Prince 6th January 2008 02:59 PM

Yes, so you win $6.00 less 5%, so you risk losing $100 to win $5.70 odds of $1.057

You are betting that the horse won't win at odds of $1.057

pengo 6th January 2008 03:03 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Yes, so you win $6.00 less 5%, so you risk losing $100 to win $5.70 odds of $1.057

You are laying that the horse won't win at odds of $1.057


Yeah so I do understand it correctly. I'm expecting a high success rate but not 100%.

AngryPixie 6th January 2008 07:18 PM

Gee this has bought a few biases out of the woodwork :) I don't think anybody is naysaying, you should give it a go so you can get the experience to do it properly.

There's no doubt that you can make money from laying on Betfair. It is much harder than you think it is though. To put a bit of perspective on things here is some stuff from my ledger yesterday.

Yesterday I layed 79 horses in 50 races. Of those 79 horses, 10 won there race (a 87.3% strike rate). My largest lay price matched was $11 at Ipswich R7#9 Divinity Dash. It won! My smallest lay price matched was $2.04 also at Ipswich R3#4 Ring Of Light. It also won, but I won on the race as I also layed #7 Conquer And Rule and #11 Sneaky Sneaky.

The other eight accidents were:

MDGE03-04 Lavender Cove $2.98
RAND01-07 Xavier $4.70
MORP01-03 Regal Dash $3.60
NCLE03-01 Spaceship One $3.20
IPSW05-07 Zeus Almighty $4.70
TWBA02-05 Such Is Luck $2.82
NCLE05-01 Our Liam $2.42
S_CK07-01 Boortkoi Dragon $4.70


A profit of 46.84 units before commission. My average matched lay price was $6.94, and the median was $6.80. Right in the middle of the sweet spot. Now don't get too excited. It was a very good day. :)

But...

there were many more horses that I wanted to lay but couldn't get my maximum price of $11.00. A number of these won, three of them paying $46.00, $70.00 and $110.00!!! :eek:

So you didn't ask for it but here's my advice anyway :)

1) You must have an angle. It's very difficult to lay on price alone on the Australian Betfair markets.
2) Be very careful offering prices over $11.00. Over this price you've stepped into enemy territory.
3) Never use a progressive staking plan. Stick to a simple fixed liability that's a percentage of your betting bank. You choose the percentage that your comfortable with.

Let us know how you get on.

Best of luck.


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