They have to start (to prove themselves) somewhere and if she performs in the Cox Plate, well and good, but I won't be backing her at the odds on offer. Although I do see a certain betting agency advertising $10 about SM (I'm sure certain conditions apply)

I don't mind Sirmione @ odds, doesn't win until wound up and might be close now

savabeel was not a filly. they just don't win the race. as weak as the field is on saturday, maldivian and theseo won't be going slow, and princess coup, zipping and co will be going hard from the 550, and samantha miss just won't take the pressure

I don't know that i ever called her a champion never will to be honest she isn't a fav horse of mine or anything to be honest, She in my opinion has beaten nothing at all but has also done it with complete ease in slowly run races in which she was coming from the tail in. She is a good horse that has beaten up on her own kind, would she have beaten Whobegotyou I don't know but he isn't racing tomorrow in this race so that is of very little consequence whether I even think she is better than him.

lets go over the field a bit here though

1. Sirmione: He started the prep off well with a couple of nice runs but his last 2 runs have been a bit disappointing, he was pushed up wide very early 2 starts ago which I agree doesn't suit him but he didn't finish off at all either, last start he was ordinary maybe the slow pace was against him I really don't know but he raced pretty flat on that day. He has turned his form around remarkably before and there is no doubt his trainer can work miracles he does come in with a gear change which may help, I feel flemington is his track but if there was enough pressure on in the race and he reproduced some of the form which saw him win a McKinnon and Australia Cup then he could win this right now that is a real if though. He was once my pick and I might have a little on him on the weekend but he would have to be considered a rough chance only.

2. Maldivian: Returned with some cracking runs but he has really gone off the boil and I don't think the Caulfield Cup run last week will do him any favors at all either, he hasn't been finishing his races off when in position to win of late you can't win a cox plate this way I cannot have him at all.

3. Zipping: Geez I have had everyone trying to tip me this horse and whilst it wouldn't shock me if he won how the aaaa could you back him with any confidence at all, he goes back to last flies home to finish in the placings and have the siren on his head to say back me next start well he has been carrying that siren for 2 years now i think who was the last cox plate winner to be without a win that long between drinks. I wouldn't be surprised if he won by any means but he would have to be as much as risk as any of the top chances if not more of a risk.

4. Theseo: If this wins I reckon i'll give up punting he has no hope IMO he has been going alright in some weak sydney WFA races and won the epsom which also looked a pretty weak field he'll be close to the lead if not in it when they turn from home it won't last for long after that. No hope at all might finish around mid field because he can sit on the pace.

5. Master O'Reilly: They would have to be running along at amazingly fast sectionals for this guy to be in the finish he didn't have the dash to catch them in the Caulfield Cup last week what chance does he have at the shorter trip this week. he could run a place in this as a rough chance but I would be shocked if he was able to win it he has quality but at a longer trip than this.

6. Raheeb: It is a joke this horse is in the field IMO hasn't won at group 1 level which I thought always used to atleast be a starting point, he couldn't win a weak epsom and certainly doesn't look like he is screaming out for the extra trip, I wish the horse, jockey and connections the best but on form he really has no hope at all.

7. Alamosa: he is a good solid handicapper which his last win showed and it is probably safe to assume he loves the mile, he should get a nice run in this race I have doubts about his ability to finish this race off and be a winning chance, he wouldn't shock me totally if he placed but he would have to be pretty good odds to entertain having an e/w punt on him.

8. C'est La Guerre: Here is the horse I feel might start over the odds for his ability, he is a quality galloper whose form through the NZ derby has been nothing but franked nearly everytime one of the horses through it steps out, no later than last week when Nom Du Jeu ran a cracker 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. He has only really had one bad run which was in the JRA cup where he was pushed wide a fair way out on a night when there was a dynamite leader bias, his last start in the Yalumba was sensational they ran i believe the last 1000m in that race at around 55 sec if that is the case what time did this guy get home in from last. I amnot sure whether they may try to hold a bit more forward position from the good gate off memory he was up near the pace when he won the NZ Derby but he is one of the few who has the quality to take this race out IMO good e/w chance in the race at stupid odds.

9. Princess Coup: She is in sensational form and the NZ form is strong this is as far as she wants to go and is her best distance they tried her at the 2400 last year for a 3rd in the Caulfield Cup but she really doesn't finish it off at that trip. She is a quality mare in the best form of her career and the horse to beat here, my only concern here is how far back will she get and the ability to get a clear run when needed and there are plenty of slow horses here that could get in her way. As I said she is the horse to beat and if you can get $4 around the place before the race she would be worth having a go at not sure that will be around though.

10. Gallant Tess: Always had a bit of time for the horse but she shouldn't be here would have to be a massive doubt to run the trip out on exposed form good luck once again to all involved but she has no hope at all.

11. Zarita: Always had a hard time rating this horse and although she has run ok this spring in a couple of races she has never once looked like winning any of them and I doubt this is changed in this race lacks the quality to win the race and would only give her a very rough place chance.

12. Samantha Miss: the form around her is questionable for sure but the barrier will see her closer than normal i feel especially with the weight relief, is she good enough to win this race only time will tell but i would rather have something on her at the double figures I already have ($17) than against her, she gets a jockey who always seems to be able to pluck something out of his behind in these big races I will say she can win certainly a place chance in an extremely weak race.

my tips right now
1. Samantha Miss (I just feel she might get to much of a jump on Princess Coup)
2. Princess Coup
3. C'est La Guerre
4. Sirmione
5. Zipping

Only condition is that it is a max $50 bet that i know of

I am aware of that Chuck but how many 3yo colts or geldings had won the race before he won off memory there record isn't outstanding either

15 colts and geldings. no, their record wasnt great, but still about 1 in 5

Significantly more than the 1 filly, which in the 80 year history of the race is simply an outlier.

Chuck out of interest do you have any idea how many fillys have attempted it at all

I amnot trying to be smart or anything here either I wouldn't have thought there would have been many I can only remember seeing Miss Finland myself but I haven't been following racing that closely for that long

Apparently the last 2 fillies to have run in the race were Miss Finland and Slight Chance and I believe they said there have only been 11 contest the race not sure if that is correct seems a low number much lower than i expected.

The last 2 fillies to have run in the race have both run very good runs if that is the case.

Crash said earlier that Surround had proved herself in open company prior to her Cox Plate win.

Wrong.

9 starts as a 2YO for 5 wins
4 starts as a 3YO prior to the CP for 4 wins in a Fillies Hcp, Ascot Vale Stks, Moonee Valley Stks and Caulfield Guineas - all 3YO events.

After her win in the Cox Plate, Surround raced 8 times in open company for 2 wins. In the Cox Plate she beat Unaware and Better Draw - not exactly hall of famers.

I think the Surround euphoria is a little unwarranted and the post Cox Plate form outlined above gives some weight to this.

Not many 3YO fillies try for this race so the once in 80 years although true is a tad misleading.

Lisa Cropp slaughtered Miss Finland two years ago. Slight Chance ran third after protest in one of the hottest fields to face the starter in any race over the past twenty years.

This is the weakest Cox Plate since Rising Prince won in 1985 ( Drawn was favourite ). I think only Sirmione and Maldivian have won at Group One WFA in Australia and they are out of form.

I agree that Samantha Miss may be a little over rated but to be favourite for this race doesn't bestow any form of greatness on her. I'd say Sunline would be 4/9 if she was in this race at her peak, Northerly about the same. Might And Power about 1/3, Kingston Town - quinella betting only.

Ian McEwen's fear that ordinary horse may one day win this race could come true. Hard to believe that as little as 20 years ago a Caulfield Cup winner ( Cole Diesel ) couldn't get a guernsey and now it seems anything with a sprinkling of WFA form gets the green light.

Hammers you pretty much went to where I was trying to go in asking how many have even tried as a 3yo filly and I have a feeling they said eleven in the preview show and if that is the case the 1 out of 11 isn't to bad really.

It will be an interesting race if nothing else.