Thought it was too god to be true! You are absolutely right though, the larger data set reveals the truer picture. It is interesting how the place POT drops significantly, yet its strike rate is still reasonably high (63% down to 54%). The win strike rate rises from 22% to 30%.

144 selections, while not large, is a reasonable size to have some confidence in. Let's see what the next 12 months bring.

Hi Try Try Again I ws interested I was interested in exploring the neural algorithm approach - can you steer me in the right direction in terms of any published articles or books on the subject?

Hi Cairnspunter,

As a starting point I would go to the Racing and Sports website,
go to Racing -Today
go to Free Daily Stats
Select a meeting to open e.g. Ballarat
Select Neural Algorithms
Go to Read Neural Explanation

Otherwise I would Google "Neural Algorithms Horse Racing".

I have not been as interested in the theory as more in the practice!

Good luck in your adventure.

Selections for Saturday 17th January are:-

Eagle Farm R2#3 Hunters Moon
Eagle Farm R8#1 Majorca
Flemington R4#1 Vigor
Flemington R5#11 Raffaello
Flemington R6#12 Silky Smooth
Flemington R7#3 Immortality
Morphettville R4#1 Merlot Now

Good luck to all!

Disappointing to say the least with only Vigor winning but we did get 3 other placings.

Eagle Farm R2#3 Hunters Moon
Eagle Farm R8#1 Majorca 3rd -/$2.00
Flemington R4#1 Vigor WON $1.90/$1.10
Flemington R5#11 Raffaello
Flemington R6#12 Silky Smooth
Flemington R7#3 Immortality 2nd -/$1.90
Morphettville R4#1 Merlot Now 2nd -/$2.70

Update:
42 bets 9 winners 26 places
Outlay $42
Collect $63.10
POT 50.2%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $41
Collect $68.64
POT 67.4%

Until next Saturday good luck to all!

Tough day at the office but place bets only would have got you slightly ahead. I do think that your selections (as places only) would provide steady, but unspectacular, profits in the long run. I'm going to keep following them from a place perspective.

Hi Cairnspunter,

Thanks for your interest in my Neural selections. The place dividends do keeping things ticking over when we have a day like last Saturday when winners were hard to find. However, with the win POT % is sitting at >60%, since July, I bet only for a win and wear the losses when they occur but also bask in the glory when winners come flowing in! (hope the latter continues!).

With Place strike rate of just over 50% I feel the frustration of some small dividends would not suit me. Obviously, you need to be able to get the "optimum" dividends (whether for a win or a place) to be able to survive in this industry.

I will still continue to list both win and place dividends.

Which ever way you decide to bet good luck to you and I hope success is but a bet away!

if you dont mind me asking how does this work?

Hi Jayjones1,

I'm not sure what you mean by how does this work?

If you want to investigate or play with the Neural options have a look at the Racing and Sports website,
go to Racing -Today
go to Free Daily Stats
Select a meeting to open e.g. Ballarat, Caulfield etc
Select Neural Algorithms

From here you can set the parameters (between 0 and 5) you think may influence the race whether it be Current Form, Jockey/Trainer combinations, $ earnt or any of the other settings. It is upto you.

I have my preferences and they seem to be working.

It is a bit of fun playing with all the variables, you should enjoy it.

Cheers

Try Try Again

Those are some very nice looking stats, have you tried other days of the week for this? Maybe even just a Wednesday with the Metrop meetings and high class provincial tracks?

It looks like almost the perfect amount of action for a saturday, nice work