Best system is

1) Discard horses who won last start
2) Discard horses coming off a spell
3) Horse must be in top 5 newspaper ratings
4) Horse must be top 5 in betting.
5) Horse must be $15 or less in newspaper betting
6) Horse must not have a weight shift of +3kg or -3kg or more from last start
7) Horse must of placed at distance and track before

Mr Quaddie, I agree with most of that but because of rule no. 2 you would have to rule out all races of 1200m or less as the majority are won by first uppers (after a spell).

that system is going to be subjective based on the newspaper used and the quality of the tipsters (also depends on definition of a spell) but I ran it and found it lost 11% on turnover.


Good Luck

Change the rule 1 to be INCLUDE only last start winners. and it shows a loss of only 7%.

Add 1 more rule of INCLUDE only those who have at least two career wins and it shows a loss of 3%.

Only include those who jump as favourite (or under $3 if dual favs) and it shows a 4% profit with a 48% strike rate.

All Prices are Unitab.

Good Luck

add rule "Raced within the last 10 days"

and you get a 17% profit with a 55% strike rate but only approix 80 bets a year.

Good Luck.

Great stuff Wes. as usual, very interesting!