Hmm, so its the same diff, give or take a few lengths.

NB: The only "Heavy 10" I could find this year was at MV.

For times I use a fairly simple equation that I've used for years: +1 sec. for dead, + 3 sec. for slow and plus 5 sec. for heavy. Not dead accurate for sure but does a reasonable job. Watch out for weight increases though!

Crash,

Checked a few tracks in VIC. and you are spot on for heavy and slow, but DEAD is nearly the same as slow (3 sec.) according to my par times.
It may be an anomaly of the few tracks I looked at, but I suspect that many "dead' tracks actually were on the slow side?

Still, not a bad approximation.

Cheers

The track record for 2100 at Sandown Lakeside is 2.07.52

Britomart won (my time) in 2.19.88.

12 secon difference

Britomart slaughtered the opposition going away by 6 lengths from the 350. Could have been 10 lengths if the jockey pushed it. Now, either it was a reasonably paced raced and Britomart was too fast and good on the day against an average, tiring mob - or Britomart whipped all the opposition after a dawdle by over 6 lengths coasting home all in the last 350 metres.

I don't think Britomart is that fast in the straight. Some of those horse have won metro Saturday class open handicaps. It must have been run at a reasonable pace. And yet, it is over 12 seconds slower than the record.

5 seconds might be ok. But not for last Saturday.

Sounds like a jog and sprint in a slowly run race which races at that distance often are. Britomart obviously still had plenty of petrol in the tank [slow early pace] and possibly a dryer alley.

As far as I could see Abitofado, Rubijon, and Red Buttons swapped the lead for the first 1400, mainly because every time Abitofado got in front for a only short while it did try to slow it up. Rubijon trailled in Britomart's lane in the straight. The only thing I can think is that Britomart was the one horse in the race that really loves heavy, heavy going.

The 1200 record is 1.08.97. Both Saturday's efforts were around 1.15.80. Thats about 8 seconds.

The 1600 is 1.34.87. Both Saturday's efforts (not R5) were around 1.44.80. Thats about 10 seconds.

The Mares 1600 (R5) was a rack'em and stack'em affair with stablemates Clandon and Partiva getting to the front and slowing things down. The started moving from 500M out. That race was nearly a second slower.

The 10 June (midweek) Sandown Lakeside was a similar raceday with a Heavy 9 rating. The races were all about 2-3 seconds faster than Saturday's.

I think there is a variation because of the conditions, even if the conditions are read out as similar. I usually compare times from the same race day.

Interestingly, Echuca [heavy 10] yesterday only had 2 races [7 and 8] with leaders in them to set up a bit of pace and both races were won by backmarkers.

Generally though I'm ignoring backmarkers on heavy tracks as the races on heavy going seem to be more about tactics than pace. Get out in front and try and control a slow pace, then sprint!

Britomart was the best very heavy tracker in that Sandown race. The other chances had reasonable form on heavy but not outstanding. Rubijon was ridden out of character to try and stay with the pace - so clearly they didn't think he had any chance from back in the field on that track.

Yes, any backmarker with a chance (and form) has a reasonable weight on it anyway, and therefore is disadvantaged in the slog. On saturday they were chuning up porridge not clumps.

Makes With Decorum's run home all the more impressive since it nearly won from a way back in the only real sit and sprint race of the day.