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-   -   Anyone with a neural database....? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19060)

Bhagwan 9th December 2010 07:47 PM

Hi Iomaca,
Thanks for sharing your findings.

I ran that CP plan today Thur 9th Dec.

Targeting the 2nd CP Neural selction.

It made a profit of 8% increase on bank.

Betting 1% of bank, level stakes.

That's an impressive result

Targeting one winner per venue.
Meaning you bet all venues but stop at the first winner for each venue.
4 venues = Target 4 winners.
1 from each venue.

beton 9th December 2010 09:03 PM

Hi Iomaca
I followed this yesterday on paper. It made a killing on NZ. I followed it again today. I need a little clarity here. The second CP selection? what if equal top or in the case of 2, 3 or 4 equal second? Today on 41 races inc NZ there were 63 selections because of equal top or equal second. Yesterday there was 69 selections for 45 races but returned $83.30 on WA TAB results. They obviously need culling.This system could suit me.
Regards Beton

lomaca 10th December 2010 05:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beton
Hi Iomaca
I followed this yesterday on paper. It made a killing on NZ. I followed it again today. I need a little clarity here. The second CP selection? what if equal top or in the case of 2, 3 or 4 equal second? Today on 41 races inc NZ there were 63 selections because of equal top or equal second. Yesterday there was 69 selections for 45 races but returned $83.30 on WA TAB results. They obviously need culling.This system could suit me.
Regards Beton
Hi beton,
I don't bet them just look at them when I check the results, it comes up on the screen automatically.
Only one selection even if more than one equal rating, what you can do is either leave the race alone, or check if they have higher points in an other category as a secondary criteria.

I would leave it alone, there are plenty of races to bet, besides I doubt if it is profitable when bet on all races, yes sometimes it is but there is also the danger of missing out altogether on some days.

Good luck

beton 10th December 2010 11:09 AM

Thanks Iomaca
I figured that was the case. Obviously your software selects the second CP by default. This default selection process is what works. on the quick look I did there were up to 4 equal seconds and several equal top. This extra number of selections would be unsubstainable. On Wednesday there was 4 winners from 6 races in NZ giving a 20% POT on the day. It looked a good winner. Yesterday the opposite occurred. Too many extra selections. Reality bites. I will look at it differently with second CP as a guide.
Regards Beton

lomaca 10th December 2010 11:46 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beton
Thanks Iomaca
I figured that was the case. Obviously your software selects the second CP by default. This default selection process is what works. on the quick look I did there were up to 4 equal seconds and several equal top. This extra number of selections would be unsubstainable. On Wednesday there was 4 winners from 6 races in NZ giving a 20% POT on the day. It looked a good winner. Yesterday the opposite occurred. Too many extra selections. Reality bites. I will look at it differently with second CP as a guide.
Regards Beton
Actually no, I look at the first four selection and the second selection constantly outperforms the other three, although sometimes the first one or the third one is the better. (you can look at my screen here:http://www.flickr.com/photos/56869927@N07/?saved=1)

Have not done a thorough analysis yet, due to lack of interest (mine!) and lack of time, may do so in the future.

Good luck

beton 10th December 2010 04:31 PM

Thanks Iomaca.
What program are you using?
at the end of the day most of the horses are capable of winning the race. Or at least the trainer thinks so and the handicapper if he has done his job properly has made it so. With everybody having access to computors the number crunching is easy. This brings up 3, 4 or 5 horses that everybody is sure to win. The favorite ends up an emotional choice and as everybody wants on the sure thing it gets overbet and loses value. The second best horse has as good a chance of winning at better return. The trick is to find that second best horse. This is not the second favorite as that too is emotional. I was looking at Best Form's second top rated. That showed promise but alas no value. Maybe the second CP will do it.
Regards Beton

lomaca 10th December 2010 05:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beton
Thanks Iomaca.
What program are you using?
I worked in IT, I roll my own.

Quote:
Originally Posted by beton
The trick is to find that second best horse. Maybe the second CP will do it.
From what I have seen it wins at all sorts of odds, that's probably why it's profitable. The trick is to reduce the bets, in my opinion.

I used to bet on almost every race, now it is unusual for me to have more than 6-7 bets on day with 4 meetings.

Good luck

beton 10th December 2010 05:32 PM

Hi Iomaca
(I worked in IT, I roll my own) Great LSB
Regards Beton

wesmip1 10th December 2010 10:45 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Actually no, I look at the first four selection and the second selection constantly outperforms the other three, although sometimes the first one or the third one is the better. (you can look at my screen here:http://www.flickr.com/photos/56869927@N07/?saved=1)

Have not done a thorough analysis yet, due to lack of interest (mine!) and lack of time, may do so in the future.

Good luck

Don't know how many selections your looking at but your analysis is different to mine. The top CP outperforms the second rated CP over the length of my database. And with the amount of selections I have in my database I will happily stand by my figures.

Top Ranked CP = 89% returned at 21% strike rate
2nd Ranked CP = 84% returned at 16% strike rate
3rd Ranked CP = 86% returned at 13% strike rate
4th Ranked CP = 83% returned at 11% strike rate

Thats a clear 5% points in both odds and strike rate for the top rated CP over the 2nd rated CP.

The above is over thousands of selections.

lomaca 11th December 2010 09:54 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
Don't know how many selections your looking at but your analysis is different to mine. The top CP outperforms the second rated CP over the length of my database. And with the amount of selections I have in my database I will happily stand by my figures.

Top Ranked CP = 89% returned at 21% strike rate
2nd Ranked CP = 84% returned at 16% strike rate
3rd Ranked CP = 86% returned at 13% strike rate
4th Ranked CP = 83% returned at 11% strike rate

Thats a clear 5% points in both odds and strike rate for the top rated CP over the 2nd rated CP.

The above is over thousands of selections.
Good.
Anyone stopping you betting accordingly?

Good luck.


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