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Crackone 13th December 2009 12:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Crackone, by my calculations the amended results for the 100 pointers that won their last two starts is a LOT of 16%, and those that won their last 3 starts is a LOT of 25%. I once read someone was winning by laying all horses that won their last 3 starts but when I started to do so I found it was not profitable - I must have hit a bad period.

There are 2 selections (non metro) today:

Sun Coast R5 no.2 - Lurid
Hobart R7 no.4 - Moulin Rouge.
Normally very skinny odds. But laying all horses not just the 100 pointers you would have good and bad days.

found my non metro figures (only 7 months, Jan 2008 to Aug)
100 pointers won last start 2-4 second last start
111 runners
21 winners $72.80 return
51 placed $85.40

won last two
51 runners
16 winners $39.60
32 placed $47.90

won last three
7 runners
3 winners $5.10
6 placed $7.70

partypooper 13th December 2009 12:38 PM

You can see though even with such a simple method with heaps of turnover, you get tantalisingly close to a profit. So work on few filters and see what happens, firstly back all MR & SR selections @ BOB (Luxbet; when available) otherwise all runners quoted at less than $4.01c @ TF.

Secondly start looking at that LSW, i.e. was it a soft win, same distance, Metro win, same conditions, Jockey, weight change etc etc

michaelg 13th December 2009 02:28 PM

Thanks for the info re non metro system horses, Crackone.

The results are disappointing. Interestingly, Place betting in all the three categories you looked at were not as bad as Win.

Your figures for the seven months show a total of 111 non metro selections for the method. My initial test of one week had 10 non metro selections which would approximate 1.5 per day (there are 2 today) or inxs of 40 per month. In comparison, the amount of selections for your results seem somewhat few, particularly as they also include NTD races?

michaelg 14th December 2009 10:52 AM

Crackone, your figures show with Unitab's 100 pointers that won their last two starts that there is approx a 25% loss - this is not a bad result for Laying the selections.

There's one selection today:

Narromine R4 no.8 - French Silk.


Non metro Bet selections.

Yesterday both selections ran second paying a total of $2.70

One selection today:

Pt Mac r8 no.4 - Safeas.

Stix 7th January 2010 10:50 PM

Does anyone know where to get archieved UNiTAB results? Now that it is 2010, the years available in the results and search pages are 2008, 2009 and 2010.

I'm hoping to check some old 2007 ratings for a ratings system I've been working through...

Thanks In advance

OM SHARNTEE 8th January 2010 03:25 AM

Originally posted by Stix
Quote:
Does anyone know where to get archieved UNiTAB results? Now that it is 2010, the years available in the results and search pages are 2008, 2009 and 2010.

I'm hoping to check some old 2007 ratings for a ratings system I've been working through...
Thanks In advance
Hi Stix
thank you for your always interesting & helpful take on things.

Dont know about -for free- & don't know how much these cost--but

Quote unitab

--- Using TABOnline's Results and Search you can check the results for Racing, TattsBet or FootyTAB for any date in the past 2 calendar years


Prior years' information is available in html format on CD-ROM from UNiTAB. Please contact telebet@unitab.com.au for further details. ---

Cheers

P.S Part of 2007 included the Equine Influenza Shut down .
Do you -or others- think there was an -- Influenza - Influence --on Ratings & results from that time ???

Stix 8th January 2010 10:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by OM SHARNTEE
Originally posted by Stix
Hi Stix
thank you for your always interesting & helpful take on things.

Dont know about -for free- & don't know how much these cost--but

Quote unitab

--- Using TABOnline's Results and Search you can check the results for Racing, TattsBet or FootyTAB for any date in the past 2 calendar years


Prior years' information is available in html format on CD-ROM from UNiTAB. Please contact telebet@unitab.com.au for further details. ---

Cheers

P.S Part of 2007 included the Equine Influenza Shut down .
Do you -or others- think there was an -- Influenza - Influence --on Ratings & results from that time ???
Thanks very much....serves myself right for waiting until the new year to get back into it :o Better send an email to them.

With regards to IE, I'm not sure it would have, as the ratings (I think) are relative to the field the horse is in - but could be wrong here - I often only use them as a final filter for selections. For example I never have 100pt raters as a bet in <1200m races in melbounre - perhaps these are over bet(?) Where as the longer races (>1400m) with last start winners and 100 rated have assisted in all selections.

Anyhoo....must be off.

All The best.


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