OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Easy Profitable lay System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20302)

Shaun

15th July 2010 10:36 AM

Have you checked to see if it would be better to lay to a fixed stake or a fixed liability

wesmip1

15th July 2010 05:01 PM

Shaun,

I lay the same amount per horse and am hoping to increase over time. Fixed liability might work.

Shaun

15th July 2010 05:04 PM

First day of testing i only used 10c lay stakes to be sure my bot works, had some problem with Geelong with VFG i was getting no data for the races.

Total Lays 78
Wins 62
Accidents 16
S/R 79.5%
Loss -$3.70

Shaun

15th July 2010 05:49 PM

I ran a comparison between $5 fixed stake or $100 fixed liability for todays results for me.

$5 fixed stake max price $20 -$189.15
$100 fixed liability max price $20 $190.25

wesmip1

15th July 2010 07:34 PM

Shaun,

Look at todays results and anaylse it by price range.... what do you notice ?

I suggest splitting it into the following categories:

Under $5
$5-$7
$7-10
$10-15
$15-$20
$20-$40
$40 - $100
$100+

You should see a trend in where the profitable lays are.

For instance I came out $127 in front today where as you showed a loss.

It may make you rethink your max price $20....

Shaun

15th July 2010 07:40 PM

1 Attachment(s)

The $20 rule was what you have worked on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wesmip1

Here is an easy laying system that anyone can use and make money.

You need to watching sky and have betfair open. Just before the last few horses are loaded (ie as late as you can), compare the lowest price shown for each horse (the lowest tote price being either untiab, nsw tab, or vic tab) and times it by 1.20 (ie add 20%). If any of the horses on betfair are available to be laid at less then this figure you will come out in the long term.

I usually stick to horses under $20

These are my figures for the last 7 days.

1033 lays for 152 winners(or accidents as Michealg calls them) and a profit after commission of 132.87 units.

I use a program to do it for me but it should work for anyone. You could also stop when your in profit for the day.

I added the betsheet from today.

wesmip1

15th July 2010 07:52 PM

Ive opened it up a bit in the last week as my bank has increased as Ive looked at the results and slowly taken it out. My minimum price is now $7 and max is $40. I found all the shorts were just going nowhere and sitting on breakeven or a small loss after commission...

I came to the conclusion that the fav-longshot bias actually worked if you stick to this method and go for the longer priced horses. I still make a good profit in the $7-$20 range, but anythign under $7 is not worth it.

If you check your results you should see a similar pattern.

wesmip1

15th July 2010 07:57 PM

I just had a look through my account and I had 58 Bets under $20 today for a loss of $72. Yesterday I had 89 selections for a profit of $165.25.

ie these were all in the range $7-$20.

Shaun

15th July 2010 08:54 PM

I had a look at my selections for the 7-20 range with 33 selections and showed a $4.37 loss for today so i guess our selections may be a bit different

Shaun

16th July 2010 05:35 PM

I am still testing with small stakes but using your $5 amount up to $20 showed a loss for me today of $144 i made a change on my sheet and am taking a fixed liability of $100 also showed a loss but of only $81.

using a personal liability of $2 i was down $1.62 after comm

Strike rate today was 67 bets 54 win 13 accidents similar to yesterday of 80%

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