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- - A Theory ... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21958)

I find using a min of .50 as an indicator as to whether its firming or drifting.

It seems to work stronger than just taking fractional amounts.

There was very little movement in the price of the favourite between these times. 41 races all selected.
.50 cents movement either way: None
.40 cents movement either way: 1 Drifter - Lost
.30 cents movement either way: 1 firmer - Won $2.35 - 1 Drifters - Lost
.20 cents movement either way: 1 firmer - Won $2.35 - 3 Drifters - Lost

Only 3 favourites changed in this time - all from 2nd Fav to 1st Fav - all 3 lost.

Vortech: I agree with Beton - and I would be interested in the rules and selections as well. Thanks.

Bhagwan: Yes I think this may be the way to go. When I was doing the comparison the % got quite messy. Thanks.

I feel one really sees the big difference in the 2nd-5th Favs range.

So maybe grab the top 5 from anywhere & apply it accordingly .

Example
Take price at say 120 sec then say 20 secs till jump.

This can work on stable markets that are already around the 107% book percentage at the 120 sec mark as in the UK markets.

Thanks Bhagwan. Today I was going 60 & 10 out, but I have taken it out to 120 /10 as you suggested. Also I am recording the full field at those times so I will be able to look at the 2 - 5 favourites.

Two big golfing weekends coming us. Playing both Saturday and Sunday for the next two weekends down at the Gold Coast.

The capture program will however run all weekend, so I will post Friday/Saturday/Sunday results on Monday.

Trust you all have a good weekend on the punt ... Fred

Sunshine Coast Quad:

br5 - 1,2,3
br6 - 1,5,6
br7 - 1,15
br8 - 2,16

29.42% Strike Rate of Quad

Lets see how I go

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

My statistics are very basic by taking starting price which normally equate to around 140% of the market. By race start its around 115% to compete with TOTE. Often had much debate over what is a plunge or a market mover when the variables are often so different.

Its all find to follow the leaders until they walk off the cliff.

Over my many years of laying and picking winners etc etc etc, I now only work on around 12 systems which focus on an average of 4 picks per race with a return of 76% winners from the four. Use this system on Quads and you normally get around 25-30%.

The variable I use the most is the Starting Price as its the best.
The next is a good free rating systems. Often different ratings work better in different states so I have a mix.

From a $10 investment on the quad you'll get around $40-$80 payout, but every 3 months a big one will come along and collect $100 - $500.

Of late, with a S/R of 76% I've been putting a $10 bet on any races with 2 or less horses selected. Good returns from Jan 11 but early days.

Any one interested in the rules or selections this weekend let me know.

I think its a little unique, something that you need from the rest.

Vortech
Hello. I am confuseded (actually being in the state of being confused) You state that you take the starting price. Is not the starting price the price at jump once the betting has stopped and been adjusted? And you posted the picks last night. So what market do you begin with? And what are your selection rules so that we can understand what you are eluding to? Other than this thank you for posting the selections Beton

Your starting point can really be anywhere. For Brisbane races, I have the best results from the Sydney Morning Herald Newspaper. (Not to good yesterday)

If you have a database or able to produce a system with about 3-4 horses with around 75% strike rate per race, the chances of getting a winnner in each race from 5-8 (quad) is around 30% strike rate. Like any system with a strike rate of 30% the outs can as I have seen go right through to 14, have a winner and then another 9 outs.

Check out my new post for some others systems

I am going to have a good look at the data as I may have to set some realistic parameters and then start logging again as I am getting horses drifting and firming in the range -$330 - + $430. These may or may not be distorting the figures - I will have to check.

I think I can say however that very little movements occur in the first 2 favourites. See below. These figures are based on the BF min Bet of $5.00 and the data covers 3 days (1/2/3 July) with a factor of .50 to indicate drift or firm.

$0.50	Firm	Drift
1st Favs:	21	8
1st Wins:	5	3
1st Profit:	-$31.40	$ 20.90
Strike Rate:	24%	38%

2nd Favs:	38	23
2nd Wins:	2	3
2nd Profit:	-$127.45	-$22.60
Strike Rate:	5%	13%