Xanadu
I have noticed for some time now how a longshot will bob up in a small field.
Whether it is as you say the field is stacked and sprinted home or a theory I have is that the longshot in a bigger field generally gets too far back but in the smaller field is only a few lengths from the lead at the turn. It makes up as many lengths as it would in the larger field but because it is racing handier than normal without having to be bustled or hunted up early to do this sustains its shorter than normal run to score?
Sorry longwinded but I think I got my point out.
4 place bets today, first two losers, that hurt, second two winners but because I bet the percentage of bank I lost slightly overall for the day.
Roll on tomorrow.

G'day GeneralGym,

Yes, conversely, the smaller the field should mean that a competent jockey should be able to steer clear of any interference, so theoretically, this should be to his/her advantage.
Alternatively, could it be argued that because it is a small field, the rider can't get any cover so has to either make the pace or ride his mount "upside down," meaning he/she is unable to let their mount settle properly therefore expending more energy to get into a competitive position early, leaving it with no reserves for it's finishing run.
I'll be watching this closely to see if there is any leverage which may help us turn a profit.

Cheers.

A winning day today. After 4 early bets(NB.4 placegetters only, yet I was able to extract a 42.5% return(should have stopped there). Then I fell into Thorn Park, due to the old belief that "a good colt will always beat a good filly"....I let emotion rule my judgment on this one as I should have utilised my dutch book strategy and would have backed Innovation Girl as a saver....but there you go, we all continue to fall back into bad habits.
As it is, I will finish the day 14% POT which means we live to fight another day. That is the important thing, to be a survivor, until the day comes when the odds are in our favour and we can maximise profits.
NB. Si Senor MR 7 just saluted paying NSW $5.10 & $1.90, providing another success for my Mr Magic plan.

Cheers and good luck.

I mentioned recently, my aversion to 3 kg apprentices riding horses which I gave a reasonable chance of winning or at least running a place.
Well! today 3.2.03, there was a classic case of incompetent riding displayed by the rider of Belle Stone(Terang Race4 No. 7). Talk about about a boy sent on a man's job!
This individual could not settle his mount and at the home turn it hung so badly that it lost all momentum and with further incompetent riding, it ran last. Ace trainer, Russell Cameron had only one starter at this meeting today so I am sure he would have not incurred the expense of taking the horse to this meeting without an expectation of a profit.
Yet again,these 3 kg boys continue to "butcher" horses, which on form, should have a second to none chance of winning or at worst, running a place!
To put it into context,would you let a first year apprentice do the wiring at your home, no, you would want a skilled tradesman.

3kg claimers are 3kg claimers for a reason and an experianced punter like yourself should know the risks associated with a bet on them.
In my book they rate alongside the following,

First Uppers over 1600m or more.
Second Up runners.
Horses coming sharply back in distance.
Horses rising sharply in distance.
Horses drawn outside 14
etc etc

Doesn't mean they can't win and they do but how often and at what strike rate? You take the risk when you put the loot on.

I read an article that stated unless you know that the apprentice can ride don't bet.
It justified this by stating that a senior rider was worth lengths on an apprentice. Most handicapping systems work on the weight the horse is alloted before app allowances as they feel that the allowance makes up for the app ability or lack of. Its only when you cotton to a super app that there is money to be made.

To defend the apprentice he's got to learn somewhere and unlike an electrical app he can't have a tradesman leaning over his shoulder assisting him but I bet he feels like a ************ when he views the video!!!!!

Geraldton has two 6 horse fields today one of which looks a simple 1,2,3 (R4) so will be interested to see if a longshot gets in the way?

Yes, I suppose you are right GeneralGym.
I have a no-bet policy on 3kg boys/girls but I relented on the belief that ace trainer, Russell Cameron would not waste his time on this occasion - but that's racing.
However, today presented an opportunity for a profit, which resulted in 18.33% POT, so we live to fight another day.
See ya.

XANADU

the first 6 horse affair(R2) at Geraldton went according to plan with the fav beating the 2nd and 3rd.
The second (R4) was nearly won by the outsider and the odds on pop nowhere to be seen. 3rd fav, 6th fav and 5th fav.

04 DIAB ENGINEERING
HCP
2000 Metres
6:45pm


WIN/PLACE
3 3.60 2.80
6..............11.30
5.............N.T.D.

QUINELLA (3-6) 32.80
EXACTA (3-6) 72.20
TRIFECTA
(3-6-5) 319.10

(3) ZEDAMOSS (C.HARVEY)
(6) MALWOOD (J.ROESLER)
(5) IMPAIRE (A.NG)

SCR - NIL

Unbeleivable how this happens time and time again.
Xanadu we need to come up with a way to profit on the "paper nohopers in small fields"

GeneralGym,

I believe there may be a way to profit from this apparent anomaly. Betting trifectas, include runners in your selections which qualify as "orphans."
That is, we refer to the paper journalists polls available in most city publications(or we could also include radio and television tipsters).
We look for the horse which is only selected once by the scribes. That is, it appears once in the consensus polls of all pollsters. It doesn't matter whether the pollster has selected it to win, run second or third.
Include this runner with your own selections, even if it has poor recent form as it is surprising how often they win or place at generous odds thereby returning a worthwhile div.
Look forward to your comments.

Cheers.

The merits of systematic place-betting was highlighted on Wed 19.3.03. I had four bets utilising my Brian Mayfield-Smith method:
MR4 Lord Of Lords 2nd $1.10pl
MR4 Pink Fit unp
MR6 Uffizi 2nd $5.00pl
MR6 Sweetness 'N Light unp
Betting win only we would have had a wipe-out but investing in the ratio of 1w5pl we were able to achieve a 27.08% POT which was pretty satisfying. This practical example shows that this method allows you to survive a pretty tough day and have funds to reinvest later in the week when luck may be on our side.

Cheers.

The merits of percentage betting was highlighted in the big match race at Rosehill today.
Realistically it was a match in two between Lonhro and Defier. Just prior to race start, the odds showing on NSW TAB were:
Lonhro $2.00w
Defier $2.60w
this represented percentage win odds of 88.46% in what was a dead-set match race(ie. at least one of them was reasonably expected to win).
Therefore backing both in the appropriate ratio(to return 100 units whichever horse won), I was able to secure a POT of 11.54% which is pretty respectable(certainly better than you can get at the bank). This strategy of dutch-booking two stand-outs in set weight and WFA races was set out in a previous post of mine but it has proved profitable over many years for me and should do so in the future as it concentrates on quality horses in quality races when they appear to have a class edge over their rivals, which is a pretty sound criterion.

Cheers.