OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Testing Place System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22252)

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6

I don't believe it, every time I nominate some horse on this forum, that is not a fav pick by the tipsters it becomes a late mail. AND fail!

Now I'm fully aware of my limitations and don't for a moment suggest that the late mail tipper is following my selections but it gets creepy!

Still I hope it wins, I have 50*150 riding on it.

Good luck

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6

Hi lomaca

Thats a very interesting "system" youve got there !

An 11 year old brother to a Melbourne Cup winner ,

going for a Hat Trick.

--Whithin 19 days--

Good luck

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

This is an interesting point.
When considering the old chestnut of the rated price plus so much percent is overs, I have found the direct opposite to be true.
The above statement assumes that the ratings are accurate and take into account the money that "goes on" is no smarter than the ratings.
I've found this not to be the case.

A quick and dirty review of the last 102 horses that opened on track at less than $2.05 demonstrates.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 1.45 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 8.92 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 7.47 units.

If I expand the opening price to $3.00 or less, it becomes more interesting.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 22.09 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 12.21 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 9.88 units.

So based on the above information, backing the firmers at $2.00 or less opening price and all at $2.05 to $3.00 we get this...
$ 7.47
$23.54

$31.01 units profit from 398 bets, or 7.79% POT based simply on price.

This is from the last 7 Saturday meetings only.

I've noticed this month that the fav is winning more than it's share of races and maybe why those results are a bit squew-if.

The Ocho, I hope you're right about the faves winning more than their share of races.

If the fave wins then there's a good chance I might lose in both my Lay the Field methods. However both of them are currently doing extremely well. Last night in England I layed 5 races. The fave won 2 of them (40% strike rate) yet I was able to show a profit.

Today's selections for the Place method (nos. 1 to 4) are:

Bairnsdale
2/1

Dombeen
8/1

Gold Coast
2/2
3/1
4/3

Moonee Valley
1/1
8/1

Morphetville
3/1

Toowoomba
4/4
5/2

Warwick Farm
2/3

The last 7 weeks, odds on favourites that were well supported won infinitely more races than normal for Metro races.

Not a bad day today for the Place system.

There were 11 selections for 3 winners paying $23.40 on Unitab, and 9 placegetters paying $17.40.

Again the hot pots that there was money for did well....

Code:


Date	        TRACK	      RACE	Tab	HORSE	        OPEN	 FLUC1	FLUC2	CLOSE	MOVEMENTTOP FLUCSP	NSWTAB	UNiTAB	STAB BEST TOTEBSPBFMINUSCOM
20/08/2011	Doomben	        2	7	Transporter	$1.75	$1.75	$1.65	$1.70	FIRM								
20/08/2011	Moonee Valley	7	8	Kulgrinda	$1.90	$1.95	$1.75	$1.70	FIRM	$1.95	$1.70	$1.70	$1.70	$1.70	$1.70	$1.75	$1.66
20/08/2011	Toowoomba	3	4	Somnambulist	$1.65	$1.65	$1.50	$1.26	FIRM	$1.65	$1.26	$1.40	$1.20	$1.30	$1.40	$1.33	$1.26

That's always done my head in, on one hand you have the "experts" telling you that the only way to win is to get VALUE, i.e obtain a price that is greater than the horses true chance of winning, and on the other hand being told that backing firmers is the way to go? which means that you are accepting the opposite (in most cases)

Let's see how the system goes today:

Kalgoorlie
4/3

Launceston
3/1

Yesterday there was one winner of $2.30 and $1.30, the second selection ran fourth.

Unfortunately I missed a third selection. It was Alice Springs R4 no.1 - it ran third paying $1.60, which I can't record because I failed to list it.

One selection today:

Echuca
3/6