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-   -   10 Block Staking plan (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22345)

Bhagwan 28th August 2011 09:19 PM

Off topic. Moderator.

partypooper 29th August 2011 01:11 AM

Bhags, just as a matter of interest I decided to apply your staking plan to Shauns idea which has a S/R greater than 22% with a LOT but only just, I'm only half way through but I'm afraid its NOT looking good................. I will post the full result (1600 bets) very soon, and of course apply my nitty gritty level stakes formulae' to the equation.

The only thing that is not clear is the SP, are you saying that the bet is not struck if less than, er what was it $3.22 is available?

moeee 29th August 2011 07:58 AM

Everything in Life is built on basic principles.
They are called LAWS.
Break the LAW then suffer the consequences.
Some LAWS are annoying.
Especially the one what says "YOU CANNOT WIN UNLESS THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOUR".

A Staking plan can certainly improve a flat stake winning system , but it can't improve a Losing selection system - Long Term that is.

Bhagwan 29th August 2011 08:30 AM

The selection has to be $3.25 or more.

Otherwise , no bet that race.

The other positive side to this plan is that one can comfortable carry losses onto the next day without having any heart attacks.

Because it is geared for a run of 80 outs.

Just make sure your method has a 22%+ SR with min price of $3.25

This does not mean average price , for those who don't know the difference.

One should be able to pick some winners from 80 bets.

When was the last time you struck 80 outs in a row?

It can be done targeting top 2 favs then separate to 1 selection using any simple plan of separation.
Easy.

partypooper 29th August 2011 02:00 PM

Shucks, can't do it then as I didn't record the SP of the losers, so it would take too long. boooger!

Benny 2nd September 2011 05:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
The selection has to be $3.25 or more.

Otherwise , no bet that race.

The other positive side to this plan is that one can comfortable carry losses onto the next day without having any heart attacks.

Because it is geared for a run of 80 outs.

Just make sure your method has a 22%+ SR with min price of $3.25

This does not mean average price , for those who don't know the difference.

One should be able to pick some winners from 80 bets.

When was the last time you struck 80 outs in a row?

It can be done targeting top 2 favs then separate to 1 selection using any simple plan of separation.
Easy.


Would this work with any selection plan. I target races where the 1st 2 favs are $3.50+ and I can pick 6 out of 10 winners. How would your staking plan work with my selections.

Bhagwan 3rd September 2011 07:58 AM

Hi Benny,
It should work well if you can maintain a 60% SR like you have stated.

I am assuming you use other filters because the average SR for the 2 favs is generally 50%.

One could split the bet half & half or use a 60%/40% split which I feel would be the stronger option if prices have a gap between them.
e.g. 3.50 & 5.00
$10 bet on race
60% of bet on 3.50 x 6.00 = Ret 21.00
40% of bet on 5.00 x 4.00 = Ret 20.00

That idea of yours usually works best in fields of <=11 runners.
The smaller the field the greater the chance of the 2 favs of getting up.
The trick is trying to secure the fav at $3.50, do that & your laughing like a Hyena.

Any more & you will experience days with runs of 8-9 outs in a row.
On a regular basis.

Generally, one would like to see those 2 selections narrowed down to one, if that can be successfully done, at least 50% of the time.
SR would then be 30% thus returning greater profit if things go our way.

Maybe you would like to get back to us if you have invented a simple plan to successfully separate them 50%+ of the time.

I can see backing 2 runners a race would be a lot more fun than backing just 1 runner a race.

Bhagwan 3rd September 2011 08:00 AM

That's meant to read ...

Any more than 11 runners in the field & one will experience runs of outs of 8-9 in a row on a regular basis.


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