Results Day 6/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)
Higher strike rate again today but less profit. With this it is when the wins fall (i.e. one after another) which makes all the difference (+ price as well).

I’m toying with the idea of using ratchet % staking where the bet amount goes up but does not drop after losses. So basically level stakes on the way down but a rising stake on the way up.

I'm also not sure of what sort of strike rate is good for odds on faves in the gallops and trots. I may be running quite high (probably am) but may not. If anyone knows please tell us.

Today
17 bets
11 wins
64.7% SR
Profit/Loss +3.42 Units
Level Stakes +0.54 Units

Overall
92 bets
58 wins
63% SR
Profit/Loss +25.52 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 11 Days +45.29 units)
Level Stakes +9.21 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 11 Days +12.51 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
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$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

No good today for this (which is still in SIM mode). I tried some loss recovery but that didn’t seem to go any good. There were 12 wins and 21 losses. The losses consisted of a 6 in a row and 5 in a row with only 3 bets winning in a row at the end of the day and 2 wins in a row at the start of the day. This means that using the Bhagwan staking plan (where 2 wins are needed in a row) may have ended very badly but the bot played up with the staking so I didn’t follow that through.

I’m thinking of maybe using 100% recovery but the 5 and 6 in a row losses scare me a bit and according to the run of outs for 45% strike rate (not sure if this is running good or not but that’s what its showing currently) then I can expect 12 losses in a row.

It’s back to square one for this, well square zero. I really thought this might work. Hmmmm. *scratches head*

Today
33 bets
12 wins
36.36% SR
Profit/Loss –6.03 Units

Overall
297 bets
134 wins
45.11% SR
Profit/Loss +0.48 Units
POT 0%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

This does not surprise me.
There are some massive overs on odds on harness horses on Betfair which is contributing to profit.
Some $1.40 shots go round at $1.70.
Some $1.50 shots go round at $1.90.

The thing is, it's very common.

I've noticed that with 5 minutes to go the price will be very high, then get crunched right in some minutes later (drop from $2.40 to $1.70 for example), and once time is running out, the price will blow out again (like back out to $1.80 or $1.90).

Thanks Chrome Prince. I still don't know if the strike rate is average or above or below although it's the wins that happen in a row that matter.

Results Day 7 - 7/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Not much chop today with only a very small gain but anytime there’s a + sign on the daily bank is a good thing.

I’ve decided to bet 1% of a $500 bank adding the amount I’ve won to the bank since the start of Feb making the bank roughly $636 before today. So I’m now betting 1% of this amount which I won’t reduce if a losing day occurs (unless I lose too much). For some reason the closest bet amount on the bot is $6.24 so I was betting that amount today personally. If there is a profit then I will lift up the 1% to match (as close as possible).

I will still record for 1 unit = $1 stakes.

I just noticed when doing this update that 18 of the 20 races today were trots races. I didn't realise there were so many of them.

Today
20 bets
13 wins
65% SR
Profit/Loss +0.75 Units
Level Stakes -0.20 Units

Overall
112 bets
71 wins
63.3% SR
Profit/Loss +26.27 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 12 Days +46.04 units)
Level Stakes +9.01 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 12 Days +12.31 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Same size bet tomorrow for me as the next bet amount on the bot is $6.86

Full Market Name Selection Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Tare (AUS) 7th Feb / 13:15 R1 1600m Mdn 2. Nonino 6.24 1.75 -6.24
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:05 R2 1609m Pace M 2. Dolce Bella 6.24 2.04 -6.24
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:17 R2 1660m Pace M 11. General Bronski 6.24 1.35 2.18
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:40 R3 1609m Pace M 1. Oh Eye See 8.42 1.33 2.78
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:52 R3 1660m Pace M 4. Shez No Fake 9.02 1.42 3.79
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 15:15 R4 1609m Pace M 4. Three Over Three 10.03 1.37 3.71
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 15:27 R4 2138m Pace M 7. Destreos 9.95 1.27 2.69
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 15:50 R5 1609m Pace M 7. Brick Top 8.93 1.97 -8.93
AUS / Town (AUS) 7th Feb / 17:03 R6 1000m CL3 6. Four Iron 6.24 2 6.24
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 17:25 R7 2138m Pace M 7. Jazzabout 12.48 1.83 10.36
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 18:00 R8 1660m Pace M 4. Whata Shaw Thing 16.6 2 16.6
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 18:15 R1 1800m Pace M 2. Im The Debt Collector 22.84 2 22.84
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 18:40 R2 1800m Pace M 2. Bon Ton Boy 29.08 2.04 -29.08
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 19:10 R3 1800m Pace M 1. Brazilian Monk 6.24 1.57 3.56
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 19:40 R4 1800m Pace M 3. Admiral River 9.8 1.51 -9.8
AUS / Arar (AUS) 7th Feb / 20:00 R4 2195m Pace M 8. Irish Philosophy 6.24 1.51 -6.24
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 20:10 R5 2230m Trot S 10. Long May She Reign 6.24 1.35 2.18
AUS / GlPk (AUS) 7th Feb / 20:50 R4 2100m Pace M 2. Tactical Strike 8.42 1.56 4.72
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 21:10 R7 1800m Pace M 4. Hilltop Raider 10.96 1.1 1.1
AUS / Arar (AUS) 7th Feb / 21:30 R7 2195m Pace M 6. Galleons Prospect 7.34 1.51 -7.34

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$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

This bit the dust BIG TIME today (-11.26) so no more testing. I will try and think of something else to test for tomorrow.

Results Day 8 - 8/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Full Moon – Look On. :eek:

What a terrible day for this system and, it appears, faves in general today.
Big loss. The Ocho is not happy, Jan.

Maybe it was the full moon, maybe day 13 overall. Maybe that’s the normal strike rate. I don’t know. All I know is that it’s not good. :mad:

Today
15 bets
7 wins
46.6% SR
Profit/Loss –6.21 Units :(
Level Stakes –3.55 Units

Overall
127 bets
77 wins
60.6% SR
Profit/Loss +20.06 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 13 Days +39.83 units)
Level Stakes +5.46 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 13 Days +8.76 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Same size bet for tomorrow for me at $6.24

Results Day 9 - 9/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Today
12 bets
7 wins
58.3% SR
Profit/Loss –3.11 Units
Level Stakes –1.18 Units

Overall
139 bets
84 wins
60.4% SR
Profit/Loss +16.95 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +36.72 units)
Level Stakes +4.28 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +7.58 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Same bet size for tomorrow for me at $6.24

Hi Ocho.
That all upping approach seems to be going well

I believe your long term SR will be approx 56.5% all field sizes.


Its amazing how many odds on shots fall over in 5-6 runner events.
So maybe think about deleting them.
This may help with the overall ROI figure.

Thanks Bhagwan.

From today I am restricting the field sizes to 7-13 runners (it was at 4+).

Results Day 10 - 10/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Well that’s a bit more like it. :D

Today
23 bets
17 wins
73.9% SR
Profit/Loss +10.56 Units :)
Level Stakes +5.27 Units

Overall
162 bets
101 wins
62.3% SR
Profit/Loss +27.51 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +47.28 units)
Level Stakes +9.55 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +12.85 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Bet size stays the same for tomorrow for me at $6.24
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Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

For the second system I’m trying something using odds on faves except that I have restricted the backing to the following:
- Favourites between $1.80 and $2.00
- 7-13 Runners
- No 2yo races
- Parlay bets x 2 (100% of the previous winning bet profit goes onto the next bet and then starts again)

Since 27/1/12 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units (not including today). Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today there were 10 bets with 6 winners (60% SR) with a profit of +5.82 Units (after commission) using the Parlay x 2 betting.

Results Day 11 - 11/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Not much chop today unfortunately. It would have been good to consolidate yesterday’s nice gain. This thing seems to be going up and down more than a bride’s knickers.

Today
16 bets
8 wins
50% SR
Profit/Loss –4.65 Units :(
Level Stakes –2.44 Units

Overall
178 bets
109 wins
61.2% SR
Profit/Loss +22.86 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 16 Days +42.63 units)
Level Stakes +7.11 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 16 Days +10.41 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Bet size stays the same for tomorrow for me at $6.24
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Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

For the second system I’m trying something using odds on faves except that I have restricted the backing to the following:
- Favourites between $1.80 and $2.00
- 7-13 Runners
- No 2yo races
- Parlay bets x 2 (100% of the previous winning bet profit goes onto the next bet and then starts again)

From 27/01/12 to 09/02/2012 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units. Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today
4 bets
2 wins
50% SR
Profit/Loss +0.29 Units

Overall
14 bets
8 wins
57.1% SR
Profit/Loss +6.08 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Results Day 12 - 12/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Today
9 bets
3 wins
33.33% SR
Profit/Loss –6.09 Units
Level Stakes –4.22 Units

Overall
187 bets
112 wins
59.8% SR
Profit/Loss +16.77 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 17 Days +36.54 units)
Level Stakes +2.89 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 17 Days +6.19 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Bet size stays the same for tomorrow for me at $6.24
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Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

From 27/01/12 to 09/02/2012 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units. Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today
2 bets
1 wins
50% SR
Profit/Loss –1.05 Units

Overall from 10/02/12
16 bets
9 wins
56.2% SR
Profit/Loss +5.03 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)