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- - Don Scott Tab Return (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23447)

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelg

U.B., I don't know if it makes a difference because I don't generally test resumers, but I don't lay them. Maybe my logic might support betting them.

Out of interest, today's result with the Tele faves wasn't too bad. There were 8 selections after a scratching for 3 winners returning $10.50 ($10.68 with Betfair S.P) for a 31% POT.

Nice work.

Lets assume most resumers are 43+ days with that the results are :

There were 60272 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 174 selections for the System
There were 171 races for the System
There were 40 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.99%
There were $242.39 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $68.39 or a percentage profit/loss of 39.3%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1 and daysLastStart >= 43

So not really much of a difference. Alkthough they seem to produce a good profit of 40%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UselessBettor

As Chrome would say, be careful te profit is made up of a many winners and not just two or three.....hard to repeat.

Continuing this thread, and using only two rules as per U.B's data,

1) Ran fifth or worse at last start.
2) Starting at barrier five or higher.

Top neural selection = 6% POT
Top Unitab selection = 11% POT
Top D. Scott selection = 20% POT.

As Dale has said, "the majority of punters have this inbuilt flaw where we think that lowest is always best". The above results strongly support him.

However, the problem I would assume is that it would take an inconvenient effort and time to check the daily selections for the above three profitable methods.

As a matter of interest the results as shown here for the Tele fave (placed 5 or worse at last start) over the past two days have been 8 winners from 22 selections for a return of $26.60.

However when I applied the extra rule of having to start at barrier 5 or over (at least four horses inside it) the results are not bad.

There were only 9 selections, but 5 winners for a TAB return of $19.10, and 7 placegetters for a TAB return of $11.90.

I've looked at today's selections. They are:

Grafton
1/12

Wangaratta
1/3
3/11
5/6

I made an error.

The TAB fave at Wangaratta R1 was no. 4 not 3, however it was scratched, and the selection at W'ratta race 5 was also scratched.

From the two remaining selections, one was unplaced and the other ran second paying $2.00.

There are two selections today for the Tele method:

Taree 3/6
Townsville 3/2