Not shouting just making a point.....EVERY RACE IS DIFFERENT.

The odd occassion when I stuff up, I may have all losers.
The odd occassion when I get really good % I clean up on all runners.
All other races are somewhere in between.
My advice would be to read the thread again.
Hay List as fav was my worst way.

Mark,

Thanks for the posts. Really interesting and I'll paper trade this myself to see how I go. Your responses have been very helpful and I understand eah race can be different so not surprised by that.

It all makes sense. I think I understand your angle and I can see how this works quite easily if you have some idea on what your doing. For example if the market is near 100% you only need to get 1 or 2 horses on the higher side and your over a 100% book by a very small percentage. If you can get 3-4 horses on the higher side you are probably showing a few % points profit.

The real trick I beleive is getting on quickly and knowing which horses may firm/drift and thus which would hurt or help your book.

I really appreciate your answers to what I have posted, especially posting an example. Your a top notch guy to be sharing it.

Just one more question and you have probably answered this elsewhere but do you use any software to make this easier ? ie there is software that you can click dutch once you have some horses layed already and it will do the others for you.

Thanks again.

Aw shucks UB.
As I put on the original thread, I have no worries about the markets disappearing as the amount of people that will do this is negligible, if any
The only "bot" I use is Gruss, thanks to Shaun. It just makes things that bit quicker as I do everything by hand.
As far as paper trading goes..........don't waste your time, just do it. Trial & error will soon tell you if you're able to make it work.
ps another win today despite a rash of favs in the middle of the day, and the shocking SP of SR6.

Hey Mark, did you have any luck with other bookies regarding the other idea we talked about, or did they restrict you as well.

Shaun, I'll email you.

Rather than start another thread i will use this one.

I was wondering why there hasn't been more mention of Marks idea,
Of waiting to see what unfolds with earlier races regarding fav's.

Then if say four of the 1st five races have been won by fav's,
At a certain meeting surely the percentages statistically speaking,
Must be in your favor when laying the fav over the next 3-4 races.

Just an observation for the lay backers that's all.

Cheers

Hi Darky, appreciated your wisdom earlier...
 

HI Darky,

thanks for your wisdom earlier, especially on the need to make sure the bank vault is stacked nicely before we take a spin = being 'overcapitalised'

LG


PS tarzan is alive and well after a bit of a break from the jungle and Cheetah is still cheeky!

[QUOTE=garyf]

Then if say four of the 1st five races have been won by fav's,
At a certain meeting surely the percentages statistically speaking,
Must be in your favor when laying the fav over the next 3-4 races.

Will put this qoute to the test.
At Pakenham today four out of the first 5 races,
Have been won by the fav.

Races 2-3-4-5 so there is no conjecture i used the,
Starting prices of the on course bookmakers,
My source Betchoice for the prices.

So if a lay punter would you lay the Fav in the,
Next at pakenham R=6 if it wins then do a progression,
To get your money back then quit if race =7 fav loses.

Or is it one of those days when all the Fav's get up?.

Cheers.

hi Gary, I read somewhere...
 

Hi Gary,

I read somewhere that long term probability (including the version pertaining to SR on favorites?) has no 'long term memory' as such! Which means the first 5 races would be irrelevant regards which favorites do or dont get up in the remaining races.

Having said that, I have Jetta as the top rated nag in the next and currently showing value, even on the TAB = approx 75% overs!

LG

Hi L.G.

You are correct the last race or previous races,
Have no bearing on the next result.

I myself only back not lay so the post was only,
To emphasize marks post in obtaining a ""statistical advantage",
When laying horses.

See Jetta got beat but that means nothing as to its real chance,
In the race really.

That's why i back for a living previous results don't influence me,
One way or the other "BUT" there is some merit i guess for the,
Statistically minded layers in my previous post.

Cheers.