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Well done Enjay.
Thanks for sharing those findings. The POT may have been stronger using the Pre-post or Bookies opening prices because of the possible lower price being used as the divisor & possible snagging an overlay price on say Betfair. Bookies opening price ,is generally, fairly low, thus the potential for greater overlay prices being secured , thus greater POT. Using those Decimal odds instead of Fractional odds as the divisor into a Take-out figure is a strong way of keeping those outlays to a more manageable level . Especially when confronted with an Odds-on price. Example. Decimal odds as divisor--- 1.70 into 20.00 = O/L 12.00 Instead of .. Fractional odds as divisor --- .7/1 into 20.00 = O/L 29.00 If this where to fall over , it would take a lot more resources to recover using Fractional odds as divisor. This approach will usually work if using a different source for our divisor prices over a short run of outs . If one wants more control again , just use bet sequence 2 2 3 as in say 10 10 15 That way you know your max liability up front. But get the general idea for SR. Thanks once again Enjay. |
Hi Schmile.
The answer is approx 6 outs in a row using a 3 bet sequence. |
Hi Bhagwan,
Cheers for your response. Though I was more wondering the total average loss over three bets, using the divisor to work out a bank as total loss with 3 losers in a row would likely end up around 4.5-5 units. I'll roll with 35% SR and 5% POT, Av Div is 105/35 = $3 and work it out from there. Cheers mate and have a great Thursday. The Schmile |
Looking at the average outlay betting to take out $20
Average appears to work out at approx 21.00 per venue . Seeing that the theoretical run of outs comes to approx 6 sets of 3 bets. Have a min bank of 12 x 21.00 = $250 Only double take out fig. once bank doubles & you should be right. |
Nice work Bhagwan.
Much appreciated. The Schmile |
Thursday (today) was a disaster with 2 wipe outs from the 3 meetings
Mornington....Outlay $48...Collect $0........Loss $48 Rockhampton.Outlay $22...Collect $22.10..Profit $0.10 Wyong..........Outlay $31...Collect $0.......Loss $31 Loss for today $78.90 I also looked at the previous 2 Saturday's results 14/4 Profit $35.70 7/4 Loss $151.60 I think what may have looked promising could get "very ugly, very quickly" if we are unable to hit our winner in the first 3 qualifying races at each meeting. On the 7th April there were 5 "wipeouts" out of 12 meetings hence the large loss. I think it's back to the drawing board! |
Not necessarily back to the drawing board mate, on most days the first 3 races at meeting will generally contain a lot of maidens and unraced horses which make for very bad betting races. I have a friend who is vice president of a race club and they always program the weaker races first as they attract less interest so you want to get them out of the way.
Even on Saturday's the first 3 races are generally 2 yo, lower benchmark races, etc so maybe go back over the past few weeks and do it for the last 3 races at each meeting. Also you could simply choose the 3 highest class races at each meeting and see how they go. |
I did a test using something similar for my choice of fav and this whole set produced a 1% pot
This is a weeks worth of races. Code:
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Long-term this method will only work if there is a POT at level stakes.
One could argue that backing a maiden fav on a heavy 10 track is bordering on lunacy. So leaving Mornington out the damage was minimal today. Running at a 35% SR we can expect around a 72.5% strike rate of wins per sequence with this method. Food for thought. :) The Schmile |
This was my above results using Unitab prices.
Selections 35 Wins 25 SR 71.43% Profit 19.41 POT 1.13% |
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