OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - I only have 20 seconds today!

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Sports and Gambling (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=6)

- - I only have 20 seconds today! (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23982)

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Well it's hard to describe yesterday's effort anything else than a total disaster.

I knew I had limited records for Saturdays but still, I expected better than that, going by results for the other days.

Yesterday's selections developed a definite affinity for the fourth position, nearly 45% S/R for that, maybe I should bet the first four and have them as standout?

Give Sunday a go today to see how it goes, but don't have much hope for it.

Wonder why Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are so much better? Can't see any difference myself but probably people with more knowledge about the greys could point it out?

here are today's races, maybe I have better luck with these.

Code:


 Time   Race#	Track			 Dog	 
 --------------------------------------------
 12:18	1	Manukau		1   BEARLY POSSI 
 13:10	3	Manukau		4   AGENT VICTOR 
 14:35	7	Healesville	2   ASTON TYLER  
 14:41	7	Manukau		8   KEZZ		 
 15:19	9	Healesville	2   HARDAWAY MAS 
 15:53   11	Manukau		1   DIAMOND RAID 
 17:24	2	Nowra		  8   AFRICAN STAT 
 17:40	4	Canberra	   8   BARNEY'S LEE 
 17:42	3	Nowra		  5   AMBASSADOR O 
 18:28	5	Nowra		  6   BIT RICH	  
 18:57	8	Canberra	   2   FIRST BANQUE  
 19:09	6	Strathalbyn	2   ASTON ODIN	
 19:24	8	Sale		   6   BUCKLEY ROSE  
 19:24	8	Sale		   7   GLOMING	   
 19:24	8	Sale		   8   MCMORGAN	  
 19:39	8	Albion Park	5   BIG SANDPIT   
 19:39	8	Albion Park	8   CAKES AND PI  
 19:48	8	Strathalbyn	1   JAINAMO	   
 19:49	9	Sale		   4   BARKARDI GIR  
 20:09   10	Sale		   2   ALPHA ODYSSE  
 20:13	9	Strathalbyn	7   GIVE ME LIP   
 20:13	9	Strathalbyn	5   HE'S GOT SPI  
 20:37   10	Strathalbyn	6   SHEZA NEO	 
 20:37   10	Strathalbyn	3   SLIPPER'S SW  
 20:57   12	Albion Park	4   ARCTIC BLAST

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

I can only comment on the races that I had studied , and compare your selections and can find nothing substantial.

Hope you are right, I've been doing this for a few months now but not every day, and the results were quite good for the effort involved.

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

Lomaca.
Why is it that Warragul had a whole bunch of eligible races , yet Traralgon and The Meadows had very few?
Is there in fact a selection for every race , only you cherry pick which ones you post , or is there a criteria as to whether a race is actually rateable?

It simply comes down to the dogs moeee, not the track or distance.
If there are qualifying dogs then the race is OK, some days every race is good, some days only a few.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Hope you are right, I've been doing this for a few months now but not every day, and the results were quite good for the effort involved.
It simply comes down to the dogs moeee, not the track or distance.
If there are qualifying dogs then the race is OK, some days every race is good, some days only a few.

PS Every dog in the race must qualify for my first criteria!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

It simply comes down to the dogs moeee
If there are qualifying dogs then the race is OK, some days every race is good, some days only a few.

Not that it matters to me , but I'm curious now.

How is it that SALE Race 8 finds 3 dogs that qualify , yet Sandown Park didn't find a single qualifier for the entire meeting?

It's just that who would have thought an entire Meeting can't find a single runner , yet 3 animals roll up in just a single event at SALE - I mean , what are the odds?

I guess it must just be a nuance of your method.
Good Luck with it anyway.

My method involves the number of races on tape involving the runners I have in my database.
The More runners , and the More times they appear is what makes a Race rateable for me.
The less runners I have video of , the less likely I bother with handicapping that race.
Thats why I don't do Maidens and Tier 3 races.
These animals very rarely figure in the tapes I have.

EDIT: Just read your latest post after I submitted this.
And that pretty much answers my post question :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

Actually Sandown is one of the tracks I could not find any profit at all so I eliminated.

Looks like my luck has turned, Manuaku race 3 Agent Victor returned $19.50 and $3.00 had 5*20 riding on it.
This will do me for the day.
Incidentally my avg div is about $5 so not many shorties come in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Actually Sandown is one of the tracks I could not find any profit at all so I eliminated.

You wouldn't be alone
Sandown Park is most probably the most disliked track (TAB) in greyhound racing for serious wagerers, the interference at the 1st turn is off the scale.

Quote:

Originally Posted by woof43

You wouldn't be alone
Sandown Park is most probably the most disliked track (TAB) in greyhound racing for serious wagerers, the interference at the 1st turn is off the scale.

Thanks for clearing it up woof43,
I didn't know the reason and don't want to go on harping about keeping good records but if you do, it will show you where the profit is even if it doesn't tell you why.

Cheers

Quote:

Originally Posted by woof43

Sandown Park , the interference at the 1st turn is off the scale.

So wouldn't that show up as a bias in the Box Winning statistics?
Interference is a constant in greyhound Racing.
Some tracks it is worse , some distances it is worse.
But it should show up in Bos Statistics to the efect that something will be revealed at Sandown.
Surely not every single Box has increased interference equally at Sandown?

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

So wouldn't that show up as a bias in the Box Winning statistics?

That is one stat I don't bother keeping, it is in my data but how you translate it into something is another matter.
You can keep a stat on the average winning odds of all winners to find the win efficiency of the wagerers, give a pointer into the right direction, also tells you how many runners you need to be able to ditch to break even.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Good luck

Just got home and caught Mandurah race 3, I think the 4 and 5 should win or place.
If not sue me!

Albion p race 8 4 and 5

missed the 2 place divi problem again in my haste, ce la vie!