The greatest factor that is not in any rating is " how is the horse today?" Sunday week ago I was told Bombora was So-So, Wednesday I was told the horse was getting there, Saturday morning I was told that the trainer had cancelled plans for Sunday. The trainer and the owners knew early Saturday that nothing would beat him. This was well before he was even ready to go to the track.

Point being you can't win them all but have to trust in what you do.

Morphettville Race 8 MANGANESE, before the race i knew nothing about this horse only what i have read, my top 2 selections for the race.

4 Jeunealistic 3.48
5 Manganese 3.48
Results



1st 5 MANGANESE $29.00 $7.50
2nd 8 KERT $2.80
3rd 7 HANDSOME AS $2.00


I can explain why my ratings had this horse rated so high but can't explain why it was so high priced.

3rd best average price.
Not in top 5 for win & Place percentage
Best at the track and distance.
Best in the wet.
2nd for fitness.
2nd for class rating.
Not in top 5 for form
Not in top 5 for Qtab.
Not in top 5 PPP

"Not in top 5 for form" - That would pretty much do it!!

Sometimes I feel it disrespectful to the person who I am asking a question of. Sometimes what is said might appear to be against what the general theme of what quite a few long termers here who know the ropes and have more then likely seen it all.

With repect to the Shaun and the horse Manganese. Shaun had it rated second, yet the market did not agree.

Here is my Conundrum No 64. Somebody else said if they price a horse or their ratings do and the market has it well over those odds that he believes the Market is nearly always right. So he accepts that and believes he is at fault not the market. ( or something similar, meaning the same if I have it right )

Now, this interests me greatly because I suppose one common theme through all my meanderings is looking for value, looking for the angle that the crowd and market undervalue.

So, in respect to Shaun. What should he have done in this situation. I have conflicting opinions given to me. One, disregard and let the market guide as a filter or 2. Go with what you have got. If your ratings or system selects something, and you think you have a sound policy then go with it, you can not deviate and not bet, because of factors outside of what you have judged the race on.

?

Star

Shawn are you still using the following variables in your ratings

API
Win%
Place%
Distance/Track
Track Condition
Fitness
Class
Form
Qtab Rating

I think after hours of testing you guys are right all along. :(
I was wondering if you factor in Trainer / Jockey, WEight and Speed?

Regards

I believe the important criteria was that the above conditions only apply to a certain subset of races - Those being , the few races that the member finds playable.
And in the members case , I think he is trying to remove the unknown factor from his races as much as is possible.
The unknown in these seeming Overlay situations are that there must be something wrong with the horse in todays event because it is simply much too generous Odds and BookMakers , as we all know , are not a charity.

My 2 roubles on this...

Rule no 1
Form an opinion of your own because,
Without one, we are nothing,
As punters (or men?)

Rule no 2
Seek all the advice/info/filters you can get
But at the end of the day.
Be prepared to back your own judgement!

LG

Hi Mo.

Agree 100% with your post.

Cheers.

True, Bookies are not charities. But I think that statement becomes blurred when they are now Tote watches, The Corporates certainly are and if they follow the Tabs who definately are market driven less their take then they fall in line.

Top Fluctuations and SP are so close in all races that tells me the market defines and it is the weight of money that decides.

Now, this brings up another interesting question. Where does the bulk of the money come from. Is it a few professional syndicates, or is it the sheer number of small punters or is it from something more sinister like ( Laundered Money ) I do no know , had to throw that in.

But, if we had some idea of the money trail and its connections then that might be something to factor in or to eliminate.

Maybe it is posssible to try to pick which races are of interest to this ( Money ) and either follow or avoid.

?

Star

Shaun would be able to answer this based on his methodology.
1- Is it profitable to bet horses that are way over his rated odds.
2- Is it not profitable to bet horses that are way over his rated odds.

With mine occasionally circumstances happen that a horse marked,
At say $5.0 will win at $21.0 etc.

"LONG TERM FOR ME BACKING HORSES OUTSIDE THE MARKET,
iS UNPROFITABLE SO AFTER THE CURSING AND SWEARING,
i GET BACK TO THE JOB AT HAND BASED ON 1,000S AND 1,000S,
OF PREVIOUS RESULTS".

Shauns ratings may find the bigger the better.
Everybody uses different ideas to how they arrive at and bet,
Their particular selections.

You can't put it into A OR B it's what method is "PROFITABLE",
For the selections you are betting.

Cheers.