I agree with the 2nd sentence 100%
Eventually i got tired of seeing my,
Top rated priced at $3.9 win at $3.8,
In the end i allowed for 0.5 betting,
Point all horses for an underlay.

Say i priced a horse at $4.0 i would accept $3.50,
This also helped overcome the disgraceful %s bet,
In the far away Sydney and Queensland country meetings.

In saying that i am in pursuit of something mechanical,
Now that hopefully will eliminate this process.

The above made it possible to bet an underlay without to ,
Much compromising the rated price to an extent.

Cheers.
Garyf.

LOL @ The Ocho

................

OK so the boys in the pin stripes and braces can wield huge leverage, break the rules from time to time and get to play with tankers full of mulah belonging to someone else. Sorry, did I forget.. live like kings when the bonus comes in (and poncy princes in between).

There must be some possibilities around increasing our sorry lot?

4 examples of me having lost some marbles...

Leverage - All up / parlay into 1st 4 races then divert any profits into exotics for remainder of card. Hang on to your plums going into the last leg however.

Breaking 'the rules' - punt contrary to common misconceptions, myths wherever possible eg You can't win backing FAVs (Odds-on Fav's for the Place 24/7, anyone?)

Someone else's money - See 2. Scoop Joe P's $$$ off the top of the bigger pools on a regular basis, double your bank,transfer original stake back into your bank account and go again with Joe P's hard earned

Greed is Good - take some profit every week, month and go buy something just for yourself. When you crack the big quaddy you can get the drinks in at Pu$$y Cats and tell me how you done it !


LG

Would anyone bother to consistently seek out a horse that's had at least 5 runs this time in without winning, and a winning % of let's say near enough to 20%. I'd call these horses overdue for a win ...........

You can't win backing FAVs (Odds-on Fav's for the Place 24/7, anyone?) - Since 6/08 I've had 47 bets for 46 wins. Well overdue for some losers but WOW WEE so far at least.

Leverage - Maybe parlay/all-up some of the place bets?

Scoop Joe P's $$$ off the top of the bigger pools on a regular basis
PLUS When you crack the big quaddy you can get the drinks in at Pu$$y Cats and tell me how you done it ! = System C ;)

As an extension of this with regards to favourites.... with data bases, system development software, easier access to race video analysis and more, over the past ten or so years the information available to punters has grown incredibly.

As a result of this has the win % of favourites risen?
Also has the average dividend of these favourites fallen?

The favs percentage has remained the same.
The average dividend has remained the same.
Overall the estimate of the crowd of the favs chances has remained the same . But the overlay/underlay to the actual available odds from race to race has dimished.

It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

This is my thought on what has happened over time and has been researched by lots of people smarter then me. The strike rate is irrelevant. The average dividend is irrelevant. Its the opporuntity to take advantage of mis pricing which is relevant and the general research done by people much smarter then me (uni professors, doctrate research) indicates that the range of mispricing has been reducing more and more but especially in the last 10 years.

Thanks for the reply UB.
So, over the past 10 years the horse the crowd have made their favourite is starting at around the right price more often but that one they've bet on is not winning any more or less than before. Is that it?

yep thats right.