Supposed to be.

Sorry I'm missing something here.

What am I meant to do with this?

can you open the site at all?
if so then click on the file you want to download and when the download button appears click on it.
I done upto barrier 10 for 1010Metres

To download requires MediaPro @ $9.00 a month

The free version only allows files to be uploaded.

I understand the strike rate for Barrier one is around 18%.
Barrier two is around 12.5% from my records

try this link
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?o7b1s1whkfr4src
that is barrier one

in case you can't get it here it is
"The free version only allows files to be uploaded."
what would be the of of that?

PS there were a few scratching for the barrier position, overall it will not affect the strike rate or return, although the return improves a little bringing barrier 1 at Doomben into a small profit but as I mentioned before you have to check why there is such a difference between adjacent barriers.

The reason is obvious there was a huge winner for barrier one, probably never happen again, or it will be an other barrier.
Who is going to wait for it?

Here is barrier 2 compare the results.

Also some duplicate runners.
Fixed files with scratching an dups removed
Apologies

Colac barrier 1 for 1000 and 1100M

From an old post on this site ..... dont know whether this is accurate. I don't believe that barrier 1 on it's own would show a profit.
RESULT
Barrier - %
1 10
2 6
3 8
4 9
5 6
6 7
7 8
Top half 54%

8 3
9 5
10 7
11 5
12 7
13 6
14 7
Bottom Half 46%

Some observations
Barrier 1 produced a profit of 0.54%
Barrier 2 produced loss -26.9%
Barrier 10 produced a profit 3.54%
If you bet all 14 produced a loss of -26.9%
on turnover.

Interesting, considering if one backs Favs only, it would normally produces a -20% loss
ffice:office" />

Even these figures are skewed because the outside barriers didn’t have as many runs as the inside barriers.

The loss backing all favorites can be drastically reduced if you follow,
This method.

Smartform Latest Articles

Knowing what horses to back is obviously essential to becoming a winning punter. At some point in time we have all struggled to find and maintain confidence in the way we go about deciding our bets.

In fact, unless you currently consider yourself a "winning punter" then there's a good chance that you are still looking for a better, more effective way to make your selections.

One of the biggest challenges can be finding something that you have enough confidence to continue with when a losing run arrives. The volatile nature of betting means that you can suffer terrible losses for what seems an eternity, when in fact you are still doing everything right to deliver a long-term edge. The extent of these losing periods leads you to a logical conclusion that you must be doing something wrong, and you naturally look for something new.

If you don't have the confidence to stick with your approach then you will never win in the long-term. However if you don't know what you are doing actually works in the long-term, then you will never stick with it. It's a universal punting dillema.



That's what this article is all about... giving you the basis of an uncomplicated, efffective selection strategy that has stood the test of time. It's a strategy that you can find the courage to stick with during those confidence destroying losing periods, because the long-term performance is unquestionable.

If you aren't happy with your current approach then what I'm about to tell you could turn your punting fortunes around.

The question is though, are you prepared to believe in something so simple? Are you willing to follow it? Are you capable of forgetting about some of the biases that might have been holding you back all this time?



Here it is:

"The easiest way for any punter to win in the long-term is by backing metropolitan favourites."�

If you're first reaction to this statement is that I'm mad, then you have that bias I referred to above. You need to get rid of it!






The undeniable statistics

Over the last 7 years there has been more than 26,000 Metropolitan favourites return a 32.3% strike rate and just 3.8% loss using the best of SP and NSW Tab as the dividend.

What better starting point could you ask for? Why not use the intelligence of the market and it's tendency to be more generous with favourites (compared to other horses) to your advantage?



But wait, theres more...

The offer of bookmaker services like top fluctuation and "best of best" (which gives you the best of top fluctuation and the best tote) enables you to achieve a much better average winning dividend than the dividend these results are based on.

Just how much difference can that make?

Well based on s ample of 7,000 Metropolitan favourites which I have top flucation data for shows that you make an average of 5.0% more POT at top fluctuation than you do at best of SP and NSW Tab.

So if 26,000+ Metro favourites returned -3.8% at the best of SP and NSW Tab and you can do 5.0% better than that at top fluctation, thenyou stand to


make something like 1.2% POT, without doing any form study at all. If you include ˜best of best" products from some bookmakers then this figure would be even higher.

The advent of early fixed odds markets for Metropolitan races enables you to identify the favourite in the very large majority of races early enough to get top fluctuation bets on. Even if you end up on the 2nd favourite every now and again, it's not going to make that much difference to these overall figures... the sample is just too large.



A rock solid foundation

There's no carefully crafted rules here, no dodgy backfitting and no longshot winners to distort the results. It's simply the rock solid long-term performance of favourites and the nature of today's competitive betting markets that offer punters a winning price advantage. The ironic thing is that most punters are blissfully unaware of it and spend hours of time and effort each week to achieve inferior results.

To forge a decent profit for years to come all you need to do is find a way to eliminate those favourites that tend to underperform. That's your challenge to work on... I can'tgive you all the secrets to success. Your principles might be based on jockeys, run style, recent form or general race conditions.

Regardless of how you go about eliminating certain favourites, you can still bet with the confidence that at worst you will break square in the long-term and probably make a small profit. If you don't currently consider yourself a winning punter then just breaking square must be better than what you have been achieving in the past, most likely with much less time and effort as well.



Going forward

This is how simple the path to winning can be. If you aren't happy with your current approach then you don't need to make the game any more complicated then I have outlined here. All you need to worry about is sticking to Metropolitan favourites, getting a good price and focusing your time on eliminating those that tend to underperform.

You'll enjoy a better strike rate than you have in the past and most importantly, when things get tough you can generate the confidence to stick with it because of the unquestionable long-term performance of favourites.

It was following this type of approach many years ago that saw my punting fortunes take a huge turn for the positive and it can do the same for you. Of course I've now added many more aspects to my game that have seen my clients back one-out winners at as much as 60/1, but this is where it all started.

Despite how logical and effective this strategy is, there'll be some that just can't get over the mental hurdle of primarily backing favourites. Over the years we've all been conditioned to think that favourites are undesirable as betting propositions and that there's no glory in backing winners that everyone else is tipping. The truth is that this type of thinking is promoted by losers that don't have a clue of what they're talking about.

Let me tell you that the only glory in punting is making a long-term profit, however it's achieved. The choice is ultimately yours.




Cheers.
Garyf.