Winchester is fine now still got my fingers crossed that Brigantin sneaks into the field not liking it's chances though

Damien in form at the right time

Acceptances
 

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 Dunaden (FR) Mikel Delzangles Craig Williams 16 59kg
2 Americain (USA) Alain de Royer Dupre Damien Oliver 12 58kg
3 Jakkalberry (IRE) Marco Botti Colm O'Donoghue 19 55.5kg
4 Red Cadeaux (GB) Ed Dunlop Michael Rodd 18 55.5kg
5 Winchester (USA) John Sadler Jamie Mott 22 55.5kg
6 Voila Ici (IRE) Peter G Moody Vlad Duric 13 55kg
7 Cavalryman (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor Frankie Dettori 6 54kg
8 Mount Athos (IRE) Luca Cumani Ryan Moore 8 54kg
9 Sanagas (GER) Bart Cummings Nick Hall 4 54kg
10 Ethiopia Pat Carey Rhys McLeod 14 53.5kg
11 Fiorente (IRE) Gai Waterhouse James McDonald 2 53.5kg
12 Galileo’s Choice (IRE) Dermot K Weld Pat Smullen 11 53.5kg
13 Glencadam Gold (IRE) Gai Waterhouse Tommy Berry 7 53.5kg
14 Green Moon (IRE) Robert Hickmott Brett Prebble 5 53.5kg
15 Maluckyday (NZ) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Jim Cassidy 9 53.5kg
16 Mourayan (IRE) Robert Hickmott Hugh Bowman 3 53.5kg
17 My Quest For Peace (IRE) Luca Cumani Corey Brown 1 53.5kg
18 Niwot Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 15 53.5kg
19 Tac De Boistron (FR) Michael Kent Oliver Doleuze 21 53kg
20 Lights Of Heaven (NZ) Peter G Moody Luke Nolen 17 53kg
21 Precedence (NZ) Bart Cummings Blake Shinn 20 53kg
22 Unusual Suspect (USA) Michael Kent Glyn Schofield 23 53kg
23 Zabeelionaire (NZ) Leon Corstens Craig Newitt 24 52kg
24 Kelinni (IRE) Chris Waller Glen Boss 10 51kg

My intial strip down using some form factors gave me the following:

ETHIOPIA
GREEN MOON
MALUCKYDAY
MY QUEST FOR PEACE
KELINNI
GLENCADAM GOLD
TAC DE BOISTRON
LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
ZABEELIONAIRE

I then eliminated a few on price ranges (the winner ususally is in the range of $6 to $20 which is usually the shorter priced horses in the melbourne cup) and this left me with:

ETHIOPIA
GREEN MOON
MY QUEST FOR PEACE
MALUCKYDAY
KELINNI

I would probably also rule out MALUCKYDAY due to it contesting and not winning previously.

So my early tips this year would be these ones (in order):

ETHIOPIA ($19)
MY QUEST FOR PEACE ($17)
KELINNI ($19)
GREEN MOON ($16)

I know its early but anyone else got any thoughts.

current ew market
 

Horse Win Place

Americain 5.00 2.00
Dunaden 7.00 2.50
Mount Athos 8.50 2.87
Red Cadeaux 9.00 3.00
Maluckyday 13.00 4.00
Green Moon 17.00 5.00
Ethiopia 19.00 5.50
Galileos Choice 19.00 5.50
Fiorente 26.00 7.25
My Quest For Peace 26.00 7.25
Mourayan 26.00 7.25
Kelinni 26.00 7.25
Lights Of Heaven 26.00 7.25
Zabeelionaire 35.00 9.50
Tac De Boistron 35.00 9.50
Winchester 35.00 9.50
Glencadam Gold 35.00 9.50
Jakkalberry 35.00 9.50
Niwot 35.00 9.50
Sanagas 51.00 13.50
Cavalryman 51.00 13.50
Voila Ici 101.00 26.00
Precedence 101.00 26.00
Unusual Suspect 201.00 51.00

Good luck Benny

Dunaden
Lights Of Heaven
Glencadum Gold
Kellini
Americain
Maluckday

As usual I wont be betting in this raffle.

So how does anyone rate those having their 1st start down-under
i.e. Cavalryman, Mount Athos, Fiorente & Galileo's Choice

Historically they have all fared extremely poorly. For this reason I would rule themn all out regardless of how good they are.

Look at Black Caviar when she went to the UK. Her only start was way below her usual performance. It gives me cause for concern that they are feeling the effects of travel and that is why they have been saved for just one big race.

According to chief handicapper(on Outsiders this am).. It's also about avoiding the penalty they might receive if they did well in lead up race(s).

Would be a calculated gamble i guess between running them (penalty) v leaving them fresh (stats against them getting up in the cup) ?

LG