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Barny 27th September 2012 03:32 PM

Just ran thru 1.10 to 1.50

1,004 selections for 700 winners at a LOT of 1.92%

Can't wait to see the excitement !!

Personally I prefer POT of well in excess of 50%.

Barny 27th September 2012 03:33 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
There are more risks taking on a large POT with 100 bets over 20 years than this.

No there's not vortech. You only need a small run of outs backing long odds on and you're dead in the water.

Vortech 27th September 2012 03:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
Just ran thru 1.10 to 1.50

1,004 selections for 700 winners at a LOT of 1.92%

Can't wait to see the excitement !!

Personally I prefer POT of well in excess of 50%.

Is this based on Saturday metro and Bet Fair prices?
You can backfiltered a POT of 50%, but their is no way in the next 12 months can you achieve those figures. Especially with the use of a statistical database only. How do you pick which horse has the most fitness based on a formguide?

Lord Greystoke 27th September 2012 03:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
No there's not vortech. You only need a small run of outs backing long odds on and you're dead in the water.



Vortech, do you happen to have some stats around the longest run or winners / loosers, average run, draw down etc OR am I pi$$ing the wind here regards the current conversation? Was mainly interested to see how a run of 6 consecutive winners might stack up over the longer term.

LG

Vortech 27th September 2012 03:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
No there's not vortech. You only need a small run of outs backing long odds on and you're dead in the water.

So you saying in the next 20 years the same POT will continue over another 100 bets?

darkydog2002 27th September 2012 03:39 PM

Absolutely Correct Vortech/ Absolute fantasy.
Wish we could.We would be rolling in it.
Cheers
darky

Vortech 27th September 2012 03:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Vortech, do you happen to have some stats around the longest run or winners / loosers, average run, draw down etc OR am I pi$$ing the wind here regards the current conversation? Was mainly interested to see how a run of 6 consecutive winners might stack up over the longer term.

LG

I'll email you tonight if I get time some information.

UselessBettor 27th September 2012 03:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
Just ran thru 1.10 to 1.50

1,004 selections for 700 winners at a LOT of 1.92%

Can't wait to see the excitement !!

Personally I prefer POT of well in excess of 50%.
This still gives confirmation that the heavily favoured runners are underbet and are therefore a rich place to start analysing to get value.

To prove my point can you also provide a snapshot of $50+ runners and what LOT they provide. I will guarantee its more then a loss of 1.92%.

Also what market are you using for prices?

Barny 27th September 2012 03:57 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
So you saying in the next 20 years the same POT will continue over another 100 bets?

I did not say that Vortech.

I said "a small run of outs backing long odds on and you're dead in the water".

Barny 27th September 2012 03:58 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
To prove my point can you also provide a snapshot of $50+ runners and what LOT they provide. I will guarantee its more then a loss of 1.92%.


I agree, it would be a lot more. You people couldn't survive a run of outs of 3 or more. It would send you broke.


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