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-   -   Races to Dutch Back (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26494)

Rinconpaul 22nd May 2013 08:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
UB, because I'm Backing' is there a bot that can connect with a fixed price bookmaker and dutch bet? Their fixed prices don't fluctuate as much.
RP
Looked into this, trouble with the fixed price TABs & Bookmakers is there overround is 115%+ so your 10% worse off than Betfair anyway and that's your profit gone.
RP

SpeedyBen 22nd May 2013 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Races with horses resuming from a spell and a price > $30 are races to AVOID? Fact or Fiction?

A: FACT

Can anyone be sure what a fresh horse can do? Especially young maturing horses.

You might ask, "why do this excercise, $30+ horses hardly win.."
From my limited database I believe the strike rate of horses with a BF SP of $30+ is 5% (happy to be corrected) So if we're Dutch Backing horses < BF $30, provided we can achieve a 8 -10% profit for the dutch, let's do the sums based on $100 liability:
Onya RP. I decided to seriously evaluate what longshot first starters and first uppers can do. Having been hit by them a few times when evaluating the noorals I knew that they popped up on a semi regular basis. I set my bot up to back all such horses if 30+ was available 10 seconds before the jump. There were 36 losers before the first winner this morning. My bot backed it at $110. Hooblodyray!
My first ever 100/1 winner.

Rinconpaul 22nd May 2013 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Onya RP. I decided to seriously evaluate what longshot first starters and first uppers can do. Having been hit by them a few times when evaluating the noorals I knew that they popped up on a semi regular basis. I set my bot up to back all such horses if 30+ was available 10 seconds before the jump. There were 36 losers before the first winner this morning. My bot backed it at $110. Hooblodyray!
My first ever 100/1 winner.
Good when your studies amount to something! I had the choice between Lil Nina and Falpollo to Lay so I referred to my $30 plus Betfair spreadsheet (see thread DNA of a longshot winner) and saw that FS > $30 have 5% WSR and resumers 15% so I went with Lil Nina thank God!
I was nearly going to post at the beginning of the day that we were due a longshot coming home as we never had one at all yesterday.

SpeedyBen 22nd May 2013 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Good when your studies amount to something! I had the choice between Lil Nina and Falpollo to Lay so I referred to my $30 plus Betfair spreadsheet (see thread DNA of a longshot winner) and saw that FS > $30 have 5% WSR and resumers 15% so I went with Lil Nina thank God!
I was nearly going to post at the beginning of the day that we were due a longshot coming home as we never had one at all yesterday.
The bad news was that I wasn't watching when it won. The good news was that I was recording the day's races for another project I'm working on.
Do you think it would be wiser to have more on the first uppers than the unraced brigade?

Rinconpaul 22nd May 2013 01:45 PM
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
The bad news was that I wasn't watching when it won. The good news was that I was recording the day's races for another project I'm working on.
Do you think it would be wiser to have more on the first uppers than the unraced brigade?
Speedy, refer to attached.
Cheers RP

Rinconpaul 22nd May 2013 02:00 PM
Speedy, did you get on Omaru Rose @ $32 Sandown R9?
RP

SpeedyBen 22nd May 2013 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Speedy, did you get on Omaru Rose @ $32 Sandown R9?
RP
No. My bot didn't back it. I suspect it must have been under $30 when it checked. It backed Ortayga in the race.
Thanks for the xls. Very interesting.

Lord Greystoke 22nd May 2013 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Speedy, did you get on Omaru Rose @ $32 Sandown R9?
RP
What category did you put this one under RP? (Cant open your file with old excel)

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen 22nd May 2013 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
What category did you put this one under RP? (Cant open your file with old excel)

Cheers LG
There's a 2003 version in the DNA of a Longshot winner, My Lord.
It is a few posts after this version.

Rinconpaul 22nd May 2013 02:45 PM
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
What category did you put this one under RP? (Cant open your file with old excel)

Cheers LG
Sorry LG this one is updated right up to date in XL 2003
RP


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