How to find the edge
 

Hi RP

A very intersting thread indeed..hope I can find that edge as soon as I master my excell skills again ..been a while since I used it ..so I am still working on #2 Part 2.

Keep up the very intersting threads and helping us newbies.

Regards
Ted

Another example of filters within filters and how they can turbocharge your profits.
On the image, the greyed out section is already a filter of another group with 'maidens' and 'no change' & 'down in class' removed.

As a group it's showing a Lay the Fav, Dutch Back the field profit of $446.27 ($100 liability)

Then I have filtered it again to get two more sub groups, one to Lay, the other to Back. Can you spot what filters are used to get the two smaller groups??

Selections meeting the criteria of the top group signal a "L" and a resulting profit of $446. At the same time a second "L" or "B" signal is generated and more bets are placed resulting in another two profits, $1,259 & $381 compounding our original proft, (Beware it can also work the other way and accelerate your losses, but not as bad as when I was trading futures...lol)

In total a profit of $2,086 for a turnover of $4,700 or 44% POT

The original group, I took the greyed out selections from, was showing a breakeven scenario and that was taken from the mother sample which was showing a loss. This is how you get "blood from a stone!"

Regards the "test" Rinconpaul.
The only things i can see are:
1) The price of the second fav is "close" to the fav, in relation to the other selections.
and 2) They are both up in distance >=400m, as are others though.

Close as I can get I'm afraid.
Keep up the good work by the way, and just because you don't get a heap of replies don't think that it doesn't get the old brain cells clinking.

You'll be up for class captain if you keep this up Jose!
Yeah right on point 1. The filters were '<=6' & '>=7' of the 2nd Fav price.

Interestingly you would think a horse 'up in class' with the '2nd Fav's price' close, that the horse would Lose. Instead they Win more often? Any one explain that?
RP

Cheers mate, thought I may be missing something.
Excel still completely eludes me I'm afraid.

I've come up with an intersting stat:

81% of Odds/On favourites present in the first 4 races.

Now the first 4 races probably represent 55% of the number of races run on any day at a track?

Any theories as to why the most favoured favourites appear in the first half of a race program? Interested to hear your thoughts.....RP

The early races are usually the weakest on the card &/or contested by youngsters & can therefore be targeted by trainers with a horse that is just that bit better than the rest.

Field sizes also can be smaller early on therefore odds often skinnier.

Another gut feel at times is that punters confidence can be higher early on & they go harder than later in the day when pockets aren't so full;)

Less prize money = less runners = lower odds for the fav.