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-   -   The Benefit of odds movement. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=28362)

Chrome Prince 2nd May 2014 10:57 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
One more question - do you take the lay bet available there and then or do you place an unmatched lay bet a few ticks away like UB said?


Soccer is great because I take the available lay price and then take the same stake on SP back.
Other sports don't have SP just yet, which makes for a problem when working lots of markets. I have a spreadsheet which I input the start time and make sure it's covered just prior to the start. I never let my bets go inplay and never set bets up a few ticks away.

Sometimes you miss out on a massive drift.

One drift was $2.60 right out to $4.20 and I missed out on that rare beauty.

I make sure my events are going to start the times I can be around at my computer or sometimes will just take the odds before I go to bed if the trade went on a day or more ago and it's two hours until the event etc.

Chrome Prince 2nd May 2014 11:02 PM

Oh, another thing they must all be big matches, I never go for obscure soccer matches. There's got to be money either side, and a minimum market matched total.

Stick with AFL, NRL, English Premier League Soccer, big cricket matches, Open mens and womens tennis etc.
I don't do golf, darts or Formula 1.
Too many players, contestants.
I want a maximum of three possible outcomes.

The Ocho 2nd May 2014 11:08 PM

Thanks CP. I will follow with interest.

UselessBettor 3rd May 2014 07:37 AM

Quote:
Brisbane vs Sydney
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25
This could now be backed at :

Back at $4.70
Back at $1.26

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 11:48 AM

Now $1.25 and $4.90

Will be waiting until later.

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 12:38 PM

Make it easier to list like this...

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50
Lay at $1.08

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10
Lay at $10.50

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

Note that at these short prices it will have to go more than one day unless of course there's a nice upset. Not uncommon to have either a weekend of clean sweeps or a weekend of a few upsets.

beton 3rd May 2014 12:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Get the historical data from betfair it's timestamped for sports, but gives first taken /last taken times for each odds increment.


CP Where in BF do you get this data? I have looked but only found the nags and dogs

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 12:57 PM

http://data.betfair.com/
Scroll down to other data.

You need to clean the files.
All in play is listed in there as well, including keep bets.
The way I do it is to make another field which flags greater than event start time and eliminate all flagged data.
I also eliminate obscure sports etc as the files are massive.

You cannot open them in Excel, you need to import them into Access or another type of database because there are millions of rows.

It really is silly that Betfair don't list keep bets matched (PE) in play as in play (IP), it would make life so much easier :(

beton 3rd May 2014 01:50 PM

CP Thanks
That will be a project over the next two months

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 02:06 PM

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10
Lay at $10.50

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75


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