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UselessBettor 29th September 2014 02:52 PM

I suggest following Ocho's advice as 10% is way too high. I am not sure what your strike rate is but I win most of the races I bet in. Yet I still wouldn't go anywhere near 10%.

firehorse 29th September 2014 04:19 PM

I havent experienced long losing runs yet

But I see why 10% may be too high

UselessBettor 29th September 2014 06:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by firehorse
I havent experienced long losing runs yet

But I see why 10% may be too high

Its not the losing run that causes the problem. Its the multiple losing runs.

W W W W W L L W L L W L L W L L W L L L

Ths sequence wins 9 from 20 which is 40% which is high yet the losing runs with only 1 win in between add up. They went 4 from 15 in that period and 10% staking and you are wiped out.

The Ocho 29th September 2014 09:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I suggest following Ocho's advice as 10% is way too high. I am not sure what your strike rate is but I win most of the races I bet in. Yet I still wouldn't go anywhere near 10%.

10% wasn't my advice at all, UB. I was merely following on from FH's post about betting 10%.

The Ocho 29th September 2014 09:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Its not the losing run that causes the problem. Its the multiple losing runs.

W W W W W L L W L L W L L W L L W L L L

Ths sequence wins 9 from 20 which is 40% which is high yet the losing runs with only 1 win in between add up. They went 4 from 15 in that period and 10% staking and you are wiped out.

That depends how much he wins on the winning bets.

firehorse 29th September 2014 10:32 PM

I should mention I do place betting mainly so strike rate is higher

Win bets yes 10% is way high

UselessBettor 29th September 2014 11:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
10% wasn't my advice at all, UB. I was merely following on from FH's post about betting 10%.

I meant you gave advice that 10% is too high. I didn't mean you said to use 10%.

Quote:
That depends how much he wins on the winning bets.

True I was assuming high strike rate therefore I assumed prices were low (fav).

Quote:
I should mention I do place betting mainly so strike
rate is higher

Win bets yes 10% is way high

Even for place betting it is way too high. My max for anything is 2%.

evajb001 30th September 2014 08:33 AM

The place strategy i'm betting which hits about 60-70% of the time I'm only betting 1.6% of bank and thats based on the maths Paul outlined in my thread and having a desire to have a max drawdown of 40%.

So for 10% of bank to be viable you'd have to be hitting a strike rate of probably 90%+ whilst being profitable and still be comfortable with a drawdown of 50% or more (rough guess)

firehorse 30th September 2014 07:10 PM

ok I'm getting the picture..

better pull my head outa my @#$e and get back to it

thanks guys much appreciated, need this reality check sometimes


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