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-   -   Handicap / Line betting stats 2003 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4419)

Mr J 25th March 2004 02:15 PM

Yep losing rogers definately affects their ability to score.

I'm with you sportsnutz, home dogs...

So far I've only looked at the hurricanes blues game in detail - the hurricanes a bet for me.

Chiefs +4.5 is interesting, this is the third road game for NSW. This probally will be a close one so +4.5 is looking good. Good enough for me to look into. I'd look at the chiefs results from last weekend. Unimpressive at home but we'll see.

Note I'm only just forming an acutal system and have only done 2 teams.

Stormers +3.5, another home dog. Not crash hot on this one although I'll look at it again when I've done these 2 teams.

Brumbies -10.5 gives me a good feeling, although I'd wait until I've checked my numbers.

Crusaders vs Highlanders. Crusaders effort last week coupled with the highlanders with a small win over the cats does not make me feel confident backing the highlanders.
-10.5 does feel a bit high though. I might get confidence after doing the numbers :wink:

Like I said I haven't done most of the teams for my systems yet but they're my general thoughts.

Mr J 25th March 2004 11:42 PM

So far hurricanes +7 for me.

Chiefs vs NSW
NSW is 4-0 in H2H. That includes 2-0 in NZ.
The chiefs have won just 2/5 home games vs aussie teams since '00 (both wins were vs the reds). Although rogers is out there is still plenty of talent in the NSW team.

Don't wanna go against a home dog but I am leaning towards NSW here.

kiwi@nz 26th March 2004 09:36 AM

Great rugby disscussion,I will be at the Hurricanes game tonight,but find it hard to support the Canes at this stage.
I have the Blues winning this one 31-26 but if your taking the line there is some value in the Hurricanes at +7
I also have the Blues with an edge in forward strength.
Does anyone have the dividends from previous years they could share with me.It would be appreciated greatly.
Keep this Rugby thread pumping and yes there is some good value to be found betting on Rugby because there is very few meaningful stats availiable to the public.

sportznut 26th March 2004 09:53 AM

What do you actually mean by the dividends? If you mean head to head prices for Super12 matches, unfortunately I've lost that info. Sorry about that.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-26 10:16 ]

kiwi@nz 26th March 2004 10:21 AM

I was thinking of the 'Line'prices
I have most of last seasons but don't have any more from previous seasons

sportznut 26th March 2004 11:17 AM

Well, I have all the 'starts' for 2003 and almost all for 2002. Unfortunately, I'm missing a few games. I have all the winners, scores and margins for 2002/2003.

Desi 26th March 2004 11:19 AM

Jeez Kiwi, the Hurricanes played a shocker last week, like a ship without a captain or game plan. They should have won and the first five should have been shot as well as a few of those ill disciplined forwards...but as always the game today will depend on which Hurricanes team turns up and I would not bet on this game cos the Blues may also turn up and blow them away...they are a sleeping giant the Blues but they will need to cut their error rate, be more aggressive in the forwards and change their backline attack lines and patterns (every other team esp Aussie teams) have changed their defensive lines after watching the Blues and ABs last year...hence the lack of penetration from the Blues much vaunted backline...also note the lack of focus which I would not be surprised has a lot to do with the absence of Fitzpatrick (he is a big loss for them)! Go the Chiefs, Queensland, Dockers and the Bulldogs! Good Luck and Good Punting!

sportznut 26th March 2004 11:50 AM

With the Blues, they depend so much on King Carlos and at the moment he's not there. Caucaunibuca and co just aren't quite the same when he's missing.

Actually, I was reading a Super12 report on a NZ website and it said that a semi final spot is 'pretty much mission impossible' for the Blues. I don't know about that. I think they still have a chance of making it, but a win today is pretty vital.

Hey Desi, you've got quite a few teams to support this weekend! :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-26 11:52 ]

Mr J 26th March 2004 03:58 PM

That's true, blues will have motivation to win today.

Thank god we only have 1 game today.

Desi 26th March 2004 07:51 PM

Reckon Ive got a chance with 2 of them Sports...we shall see...


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