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-   -   Place dividends -- a joke! (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4742)

Mark 29th April 2004 12:28 PM

CP

Thanks for that, but a couple of variations for you.

Horse shows $3.60 for place therefore IAS would pay $3.78 (+5%), so payout is $37800 not $36000.
Bets back $5000, now paying $3.30, IAS to pay $3.46. (This is what I'm getting at, backing a horse at $3.30, & laying it at $3.46 as part of the same bet, to reduce the exposure???.)
I understand that the original exposure was a potential loss of $23800 (hold $14000 less pay $37800), new exposure $8300 (hold now $9000, less pay $17300), BUT the hold is down $5000 therefore lowering potential profits. So what has happened is loss limited by $15300, and profit lowered by $5000, effectively a place bet @ $3.06 ($15300/$5000), on a horse showing $3.30.

Mark Read is in the bookie business to make $$$ & you can't make $$$ if you're not holding $$$. I guess it's not that simple because with a win market, if you have too much exposure on one horse you can extend the prices on others to try to cover it, but betting the place based on bettering the TAB you can't adjust prices.

Even paying over the TAB place dividends gives IAS a huge % advantage.

Chrome Prince 29th April 2004 12:31 PM

Quote:
On 2004-04-29 12:22, Mr ed wrote:
Chrome, this example would mean a minimum of a 35 horse race, but i suppose its hypotetical.


I don't understand how you have arrived at this ED, I have said the tote pool is $148,000, but I'm a hypothetical bookie who is holding $14,000 on the race.
$10,000 is on horse A and $4,000 is spread over the other horses I took bets on.

Merriguy 29th April 2004 12:53 PM

The site I referred to is the one that Pro-Punter are offering a joining special on at the moment. Just go there and follow my directions as indicated above.

I'm not clear on why they are very strict on mentioning names in this forum when they are accepting advertising from the same people. Perhaps its to stop others saying they are supporting one outfit over the others

Chrome Prince 29th April 2004 01:04 PM

Quote:
On 2004-04-29 12:28, Mark wrote:
Horse shows $3.60 for place therefore IAS would pay $3.78 (+5%), so payout is $37800 not $36000.
Bets back $5000, now paying $3.30, IAS to pay $3.46. (This is what I'm getting at, backing a horse at $3.30, & laying it at $3.46 as part of the same bet, to reduce the exposure???.)
I understand that the original exposure was a potential loss of $23800 (hold $14000 less pay $37800), new exposure $8300 (hold now $9000, less pay $17300), BUT the hold is down $5000 therefore lowering potential profits. So what has happened is loss limited by $15300, and profit lowered by $5000, effectively a place bet @ $3.06 ($15300/$5000), on a horse showing $3.30.


Mark,

My example was on a win market.
Using your example,
$3.78 payout $37,800 loss $27,800
Bet back $5,000 new odds $3.46 payout $34,600 less bet $24,600

Less $5,000 @ $3.30 $11,500 profit

So if Horse A loses I win $5,000 on race for that horse.
If horse A wins I payout $34,600 less $11,500 $23,100, so my loss is $13,100

Scenario 1 I don't layoff and I either win $10,000 or lose $17,800

Scenario 2 I layoff and either win $5,000 or lose $13,100

By taking scenario 2 I have either lost $5,000 in profit or saved $4,700 in payouts depending on the outcome.

I see what you're getting at, by betting my profit goes down 50% but my risk is greatly reduced.
In scenario 1 I'm betting $10,000 @ $1.78
In scenario 2 I'm betting $ 5,000 @ $2.62
BUT my loss risk is reduced by $4,700

It only makes sense to do this where you are overexposed.

La Mer 29th April 2004 01:31 PM

[quote]
On 2004-04-29 10:30, Mark wrote:
But to back something on the tote and then still have to pay out at a higher price (5%+) makes no sense. So if he backs something on the tote, it's at a compounded loss as he still guarantees to pay a better price. If you could give a numerical example that would be appreciated.

Mark: Chrome Prince's examples are what I was on about - I've been a little busy over the last 24 hours and just got back to your response, so he beat me to the punch, but his was a very good example.

You mention Read as being a bookmaker, and while that is true in a literal sense, he was, is and always has been an arbitrager first and foremost, which has been the secret of his success over the years because of his attitude of reducing risk at all costs - nothing has changed, better to fore-go a little of the potential profits and stay in the game.

Mark 29th April 2004 03:48 PM

CP

Have you tried to make a book on Betfair?, I think you'd be nicely surprised at how often you can make no risk books every day, and then along come the carnivals & it gets bigger & better.

pelican 4th May 2004 01:19 PM

Partypooper, I have been away. That betting shop is sportsbet.com.au

partypooper 4th May 2004 03:44 PM

Pelican, thanks for that, I've opened an account today, just what I was looking for. As maxi divi is only for the win as you know and IAS seems to be playing with words.
Anyway thanks again

partypooper 5th May 2004 11:51 PM

Well, got a bit too excited as usual, most of my place bets are at Perth, and guess what??? they don't offer this service for WA,
bummer!

Merriguy 6th May 2004 11:54 AM

You have something wrong there, Partypooper. I had a bet for the place at Narrogin yesterday -- no trouble.

One little 'wrinkle' is that the "Country Best Price" is only the better of NSW and Vic TABs; "City Best Price" is all three TABS. The latter seems to be available only on Saturdays or carnival days. Not sure why.

Of my three bets yesterday UniTAB actually paid better for two, and equal for the other. That's not much of a sample of course.


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