I've lost a lot of money in this French Open so it's important for me to make it back.

I just bet $20 on it for return of $60

[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-04 17:30 ]

O'k, theres a lot of value bets out there, but i will back each and take some multi's around these.
ROOSTERS 13+ @ $2.65
NTH QLD WIN @ $3.50
BRONCOS 13+ @ $2.10

or

ROOSTERS TRY @ $2.15
STORM TRY @ $2.00
BRONCOS TRY @ 1.85
NTH QLD GOAL @ $7.00

dont know if you can bet on these , but if you can:
ROOSTERS 31-40 PTS @ $4.50
STORM 31-40 PTS @ $3.40
BRONCOS 31-40PTS @ $3.00

and h2d, most trys
MINICHELLO [patten] @ $3.25
SLATER [hodgson] @ $2.55
TATE [vagana]@ $3.30

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 17:54 ]

" I've lost a lot of money in this French Open so it's important for me to make it back."

That's never a good reason to bet...

"I just bet $20 on it for return of $60"

Unless it's play money for a bit of fun :wink:

I'd think there was NO VALUE on your coria bet, there would have definatly been value on Bandy.

My computer model suggests a bad bet on the roosters. Although judging by other peoples comments and the injuries to the dogs, the returns to the roosters etc you're probally ok there.

Also suggests a bad bet on collingwood since my computer model only has them winning it by 8.5.

I'd love to say I wish you luck, but I've got more money on it than you so I'm hoping you are wrong :wink:

Mr J, when I say I've lost a lot of money I only mean about $40 which is money that was won on other bets anyway.

I don't know what this computer model you're talking about is, please tell me about it.

And about the $20 bet, I was talking about this:
Collingwood-Roosters-Coria-Nalbandian

Tell me what bets you have made too.

On another site their computer model had the bullbogs a 53% winning chance, but sometimes you have to go on form not what the computer selects, i noticed they also pick a few outsiders in the afl, not sure but it might go on H2D and other stats right back to the beginning, which can be misleading as the league has changed a lot lately and they dont really apply that heavily now days. please correct me if i'm wrong about how yours or other models run.

"I only mean about $40 "

I realize that. Re-read my post and look at the "Unless it's play money for a bit of fun " :wink: written right underneath the quote.

"I don't know what this computer model you're talking about is, please tell me about it."

It's a computer model I used for Super 12s where it went 53-16. I started using it the 2nd half of the season where it went 27-11. I had tested it on the first half where it went 24-4.

Testing on the NRL & AFL so far has it at 38-13 and 23-9 respectively. 38-13 is better than 1 in 1000 which means it's probally profitable there. 23-9 for the AFL is not significant statistically but I'm optimistic given the results of the S12s and NRL.

It is a pretty simple system, works to accurately predict home advantage, road performance, effects of travel etc and a bit of H2H. It does NOT factor in motivation, injuries & returns (hello roosters vs 'dogs), weather, state of origin etc.

H2H isn't really that important and hardly ever alters my predicted score enough to change what side my system recomends.

BTW, I bet on (I bet made many more bets than these, these are just the ones I made that involved the same sporting event as yours):

West Coast +20.5
Cant.Bdogs +5.5

Didn't bet on the tennis although I agree with your bet on Bandy.

I highly doubt coria is value. My system says -8.5 for collingwood is fair. You might very well have the right side for the rooster-dogs game though. My system doesn't take injuries & returns into account.

[ This Message was edited by: floydyboy on 2004-06-04 21:09 ]

floydboy why did you delete what you wrote?

Because I spoke about the state of play in the match and realised what time it was and that it wasnt being shown live.
Dont ya just hate it when some one tells you the score and you want to watch the match . I was watching the live scores coming through ...Im watching the tennis