Neurals
 

Here you are,

http://www.aapracingandsports.com.a...ng/neuralex.asp

Races of 1,600 metres-plus have fared very poorly in both the Refined and Almost systems. In fact both systems would be well in profit if I had (with hindsight) deleted these races. From today I'll only look at races under 1,600 even though there will not be much action.

No selections today.

michaelg, regardless of which of the many selection methods i try, they are all improved markedly by deleting out those races over 1400, maidens & listed/group events.

seems that way for many others as well, & if anyone can explain why it is so i would be more than interested.

Davez, the only reason I can think of with the longer races is that the luck factor seems to be stronger. There is the possibility that the race may not be truly run which can lead to "sprinters" or badly weighted horses winning in a slowly-run race. Or again, in a very fast-run race, it could provide an advantage for the backmarkers and consequently a disadvantage for the leaders. And these types of races have in the past often led to uncertainty for most of the jockeys.

Maybe with Maidens, they don't have enough race starts, if any, to use as a reliable guide for the form. And maybe also any unsuccessful horse no matter how good or bad it is, or its age, can lead to a hodge-podge/lottery-type race?

One selection today which happens to be in a Maiden race;
Almost system
Gold Coast R3 no.12 - Sweet Venture

Yesterday's selection placed, paying $1.40.

Two selections today for the Almost system:
Randwick R5 no.2 - Turn The Tide
Belmont R5 no.1 - Zedfire.

I had a lookat the neurals yeasterday and in a race at Benalla the highest points awarded for the barrier position were to a horse in barrier 13? can someone please explain how this could be as I dont think any barrier 13 in the country could be rated as the best.

In a shorter race the advantage is to get in the best position first (second and /or one out)and maintain it ( prevent another boxing you in). This gives you the slipstream effect (conserving energy) and the position to overtake the leader (as it starts to flag) in the last stages of the race. Horses and jockeys that can do this win many races. In longer races it becomes imperative to conserve energy (race inside the pack) and be in a position to break out and overtake at the same time a dozen others want too. Speed stamina and position versus position stamina and speed. Many people say that slipstreaming doesn't count in horse racing but every race utilizes it. If it can effect Spindly Grindle on two wheels it will definately effect a 50kg runt riding on a 700kg ball of muscle snorting it's way down the track.

Since eliminating 1,600 metre-plus races (Tues 5 July) there have been only three selections, all in the Almost system, for two placegetters paying $1.30 and $1.40. Hopefully today will put the system in profit.

Three selections for the Almost system:
Mackay R6 no.5 - Shakesperian
Mackay R7 no.14 - Victory Siren
Northam R9 no.6 - Straight Business.

Yesterday there were two placegetters from the three selections paying $2.10 snd $2.20.

Today there is one selection for the Refined system:
Murray Bridge R9 no.16 - It Ain't Easy

Two selections for the Almost system
Ipswich R4 no.9 - Lambretta
Ipswich R6 no.1 - Lavinia Mary

Yesterday the Refined system selection placed paying $1.60. From today I'm cancelling the Almost system and in its place I'll list the selections for another Place system, a mechanical system, that has to date been profitable. We'll see what happens...

No selections fro the Refined system.

The Mechanical system:
Belmont R3 nos. 1 and 2 - Amber's Halo and Beyond Dispute
Sydney R3 no.1 - Carael Boy
Brisbane R2 no.5 - Argyle lass
Brisbane R8 no.18 - Sir Woody
Toowoomba R3 no.2 - Frisco's Rose.