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Cox Plate Field
With the barrier draw now completed and current betting markets initialized it is time to look for value for the true "class" horse(s) in this field.
After my initial appraisal of runners giving consideration to their barrier draws, I believe there are now only 4 or 5 true "class" horses running which have a realistic chance. In the next few days I will be eliminating some runners to eventually arrive at what I think are the true winning chances, however, I will include some others in the hope of getting the first four. Anyone have their own thoughts? Looking forward to your opinions. Remember!....this is the iconic "class" race of the year....pretenders usually do not win! Cheers. |
Class horses in the Cox Plate are:
Makybe Diva....champion mare Lad Of the Manor....impeccable record at the Valley Xcellent...potential superstar...BUT...as I continue my form analysis, I am having misgivings about his ability to handle the MV circuit, particularly from his barrier. His wins in NZ appeared to be on wider tracks, not particularly similar to M Valley or Randwick and Flemington but I am just taking a cautious look at his prospects on this "specialists" track. I will be immersed in more form study in an effort to work through these puzzles before I make my final judgments. In the end "class" will differentiate the true chances from the pretenders. Cheers. |
Xanadu,
Note Xcellent's last two wins were at Hastings which is a tight track of only 1700m. Certainly not Flemington or Randwick:
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timothy- good point but are you seriously trying to tell me that the two tracks have any other similiarities other than what you highlighted?
Moonee Valley with it's special surface and camber does not suit all horses. I'm sorry mate but to compare the two is like comparing cheese to chalk. Hey, I like Xcellent, I believe he may be the next champion in waiting, ready to assume the crown but I have reservations regarding his first run at this track under the immense pressure which this race generates. Cheers. |
Easy on Xanadu, I did not at all say it was like MV. My point was that it is not a "big, wide track similar to Flemington or Randwick" which is what you said.
The circumference is almost indentical to the Valley and it won each race in large fields coming from a long way back but that is all. We all know the Valley is unique with its shape, surface etc. |
Again mate, you make a good point and it will only be determined on Saturday when the "class" horses "strut" their stuff.
Whatever I back, I'll certainly "save" on Xcellent as I have backed him in all of his recents starts so he is a favourite of mine. What about you mate, do you think that he can measure up at his first attempt on this "specialists" circuit? Cheers. |
OK Xanadu, as you asked IMO the horses that can win:
Makybe Diva Lad of the Manor Super Kid Greys Inn Xcellent God's Own (still deciding) |
Yeah, God's Own certainly won in incredible style but can he step up in the pressure cooker atmosphere of the Cox Plate.....there is nowhere to hide for those runners which are a bit immature or just feeling the pinch with the incredible sectionals required to even stay in touch with these classy runners.
It is a true test of will and constitution and many will fall by the wayside...that is why I believe that Fields Of Omagh may handle the pressure as he has "done it all before." Definitely put him in your exotics. Cheers. |
Agree with that and is why I have a big ? beside God's Own.
My placegetter possibilities are a lot wider and 3yo's can run into third with their light weights e.g. Viscount in the mix with the prize fighters of Sunline and Northerly a few years ago. Suspect winning is a different story. Fields could do it but taking the risk - he is 8 now ad although lightly raced and going very well I'm risking him. To me Super Kid is at very good odds - his runs here have been very good. Gee the Valley atmosphere won't worry him - Honkers prepares you for that. Same with Greys Inn just to a slightly lesser extent on all above fronts. |
Yeah, good points, although in my case I have a perceived bias against the international "raiders" because usually they cannot handle the "hit and run" preparation when incredible pressure is applied in the big races by our local "champs."
The Godolphins packed up and left this week because the demands were just too much so the "raiders" have to overcome this barrier(N.B. not unlike our well performed runners in honkers and Singapore in recent years), I suppose that if they are good enough they can overcome anything put in front of them. However, when in doubt, stick with ...."CLASS"....and that definitely means Makybe Diva and some other locals. Cheers. |
ok Xanadu: show us your cards - who are the "Some other locals"?
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Yeah timothy,
As per my earlier posts I will stick with these runners even though it has rained. I will be monitoring the earlier races to see if there are any problems with the track and I may add God's Own and maybe Desert War(apparently there has been a big "push" for him this morning). Can he handle the extra distance? If I don't get back to you before race jump I will stick with 2,6,8 and 10. Subject to the state of the track I may include 5 and 13 and maybe delete Xcellent-it all depends on the weather between now and race-time. Of course Xcellent is not a "local" - I thought I'd emphasise this to ensure that some pedantic person obsessed with trivialities doesn't "pounce." Cheers. |
What a class horse....what a champion! Probably no argument that she is the best staying mare to have raced in this country. We will leave any disagreement(s) whether she is the greatest mare to have ever raced at any distance, to another day.
While Makybe deserves all the accolades which she is receiving just give a thought to that other "class" horse that I highlighted in an earlier thread.....Fields Of Omagh(3rd). He has run in a number of Cox Plates now and has been victorious once and raced respectably in each that he competed. My trifecta and first four dividend aspirations were dashed by an incredible run by the somewhat under-estimated mare, Lotteria. Any astute punters get Lotteria in their trifectas and if so, how did you rate her class in comparison to other runners? Cheers. |
Xanadu class to me means what level a horse can successfully contest. A maiden winner can obviously handle the class (or pressure) of a maiden. Usually they can handle more, too. That is of course subjective. Makybe Diva can handle the pressure of any class race on this planet. To me, class is their level. You assess what that is (often it is better than where they are, especially when they are lightly raced) and if they are in their right "class" when they are entered, you then assess their chances against the opposition given the prevailing conditions. Class is not the "defining factor in the selection process", more it is a method of appraising a horse's top level, what it can handle and what it cannot. When a horse is outclassed, it doesn't run a close 2nd, it gets thrashed. Why? Because it could not absorb the pressure involved in racing in that field. If a horse runs 2nd, it handled the pressure, it just ran into another who also handled it but ran faster on the day. So, use "class" to define a horse's ability, to quantify it. If you like, you can quantify it in terms of saying "he's a class 1 horse" or "she's an open class mare" etc, and keep your own records of what you think their class is. Then, when a horse is out of it's class, don't back it, and if it's in it's class, assess it's chances.
Or, you can use other methods to define it's class. As people know, I use ratings to do that. That's my personal choice. However, the important thing to remember is to not go nuts obsessing about one aspect. Class defines what level they can race in, that's what it's for. Cheers. |
Class is it the defining factor?
Lets throw form out the window for a moment and concentrate on prizemoney only. There are horses that fail miserably (recently) that have the inherent class to win at cricket score odds. It's a long time between drinks, but you get some huge overs backing the top three by prizemoney when they are over 10/1. Sydney Race 9 Majestic Feeling top rated by API Hiddeous form First up from a spell Paid $57.10 and $11.60 Surely $57.10 was overs. Morphettville Race 2 Magical Spirit Ranked equal third by API Woeful form Paid $70.50 and $10.80 Again huge overs based on prizemoney alone. Morphettville Race 8 Umaquest Top rated by API First up from a spell $11.40 and $2.90 Also had Cee Vee Austrax (old warrior) at the trots $42.30 and Flashing Red (top class horse) at $9.20 One must be selective and only bet when there are good overs to be had, but it certainly is food for thought. Some horses win at big odds with no guide at all, but many win and their inherent class means that they have the potential to upset the applecart. They don't win often enough to warrant backing them all, but when I see huge odds (overs) about these horses, I've just gotta have a go. |
Duritz, at last a bit of debate in respect of this subject. When I posted my initial thoughts I wished to engender some worthwhile diversity of opinions and this now appears to be happening. The points you make are valid and I, to some extent, have similar views. The point behind my initial post was that in races(NB. at all levels, ie. maidens open handicaps etc) there are specific class differentials between the runners contesting any particular race, meaning that some runners are capable of progressing and others have no real future prospects. The astute punters' task is to find those runners which are running "out of their class" in relation to other horses and this may provide a suitable betting opportunity. eg. a Cranbourne C3 race may have a runner which ran 3rd in a C4 race beaten by a relatively small margin at another country track. The punter has to determine whether there was merit in this run and whether he/she may have a possible "class" edge in today's race. It's all relative and requires some ability to determine the differentials in each class category, eg. the winner of a Class3 may be "head and shoulders " above runners in a Class4 on the same program "classwise". These are the horses which quickly work their way through their classes and astute punters may be able to benefit. eg. how many times have we heard a commentator declare "that was a good form race?" What he/she is getting at is that there are a number of class horses which are capable of going forward and competing competitively against stronger opposition, perhaps at good prices.
I think your other points reiterate what I was getting at in my original post. Chrome Prince- interesting aspect that you have raised, I'll watch with interest. During the week when I am at a particular venue and have not done the form in any great detail, I will wager utilising, in particular, the class angle and I can assure you that it provides a very profitable betting medium. Sure, there is skill involved to identify the "value" runners but the information is there for all punters to digest if they are interested. So yes, I will remain "obsessed" with this particular aspect of form evaluation as unless the whole pattern of racing were to change overnight there will always be runners which have an inherent "class" advantage over their opponents. Cheers. |
MR8 4:30p.m.EST proved to be a profitable race for followers of "class" horses:
No1 Cape Of Good Hope 3rd - international superstar whose only problem is to have run into an absolute champion Silent Witness,in many of it's big race starts. I was particularly impressed with this horse's performance and will definitely be following his progress.NB. Prebble came back from honkers to pilot him-surely a good guide to punters! No2 Barely A Moment 2nd($4.5plNSW) I was on this one and he definitely lived up to his reputation with his courageous performance to finish 2nd. A true Group 1 horse which should race well for the rest of his campaign. I keep saying it and these topliners keep confirming it.....stick with the CLASS! Cheers. |
Class horse......probably the best stayer we have ever seen in our lifetimes.
Comparisons are now being made between this champion mare and the "immortal" Phar Lap......did he win three Melbourne Cups.....? Cheers. |
Chrome Prince- you are definitely dealing with a loser by defining horses' class by evaluating their class as determined by their prizemoney won compared to race starts etc...
There have been innumerable systems over the years based on similar fallacies......they all lose in the short-term(not long-term). How many maiden races these days pay anything up to $50,000 to the winner, yet, all the winner had to do was to defeat a number of other inferior animals? Subsequently, this aspect gives a distorted view of the horse's ability, even though it only beat a field of plodders racing for exaggerated prizemoney. Sure, have a go when you think that the odds are too attractive to ignore but the best of luck to you in the long run. Cheers. |
xanadu no offense mate but u cant compare the two.....all we know is they are the two greatest we have ever seen...lee freedman said none of us bar the youngest kid on track would see one better well that was very similar to phar lap.....its taken us 75 years to find our next champion it will take us another 75 to find the next after HER.... but they were both greatest of their eras
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Yeah, I certainly wasn't trying to diminish the efforts of the "immortal" but just emphasising the fact that Makybe's effort is possibly never to be repeated in our lifetimes.
I once started a thread dealing with this very issue - that we cannot and should not compare champions from different eras and we should just allow history to unfold. Cheers. |
Now that the dust has settled on the incredible Melbourne Spring Carnival it is time to appreciate the fact that Makybe Diva was always the "class" horse of the field. Various ratings officianadoes expressed their views that "on figures" the mighty mare couldn't win!
As I have constantly asserted in this thread, "class" horses will constantly defy facts and figures and get the money at surprisingly good odds. Don't forget....racing continues and there are innumerable horses out there in the city and the provincials which are basically running with a class advantage and when you find one(eg.MR5 19.11.05 No5 Forest Spy $9.5w$2.8plNSW) you should unload bigtime. In that race the favourite, Rokocoko was primarily the product of media hype....it had won a 1400m 4 & 5yo Rst-Ly and it was stepping up to open company today....definitely a dubious bet! Cheers. |
Today we have one winner so far:
MR6 13 Redoubtable $5.1w$1.9plNSW but make sure you are on : SR5 2 Smart Maxie Remember to invest in the ratio of 1x5. All the best. Cheers. |
Well we didn't win but we survive to invest further:
MR No2 Smart Maxie 2nd $1.9plNSW POT = 6 units invested and 9.5 units returned = 9.5/6.0 x 100 = 15.83% the point here is that although backing a loser(2nd) we have profited and have funds to invest on future races. The benefit of a relatively conservative approach to your wagering is obvious. Cheers. |
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G'day Xanadu Wasn't Redoutable a maiden racing in a sat. metro. open hcp. Interested to know how you defined he had the class for the race. |
Yeah, no problem Imagele,
As outlined in my original post, if you took the time to actually read it, I outlined the fact that any horse with a place record of > 80% warranted further scrutiny as to it's winning prospects. I hope this has has clarified this point for you. Cheers. |
Better jump in again quick before I am caught out.
Just realised it was a restricted class race. Won by a maiden just the same. |
No problems mate!
We all know that it is a very tough game. Cheers. |
I hope that true believers of the class factor backed up on :
Redoubtable(MR5 $5.5W 2.0plNSW) which followed on from it's win last start when prior to that it was arguably regarded as Australia's best maiden. Cheers. |
With the autumn carnivals in both Sydney and Melbourne well and truly upon us it is again an opportune time to consider the "class" horses which may figure prominently in this season's major races(and for that matter, the many minor races leading up to the classics).
Remember, as proven in the Spring, class horses may not necessarily display their true abilities in lead-up races but on the day they are virtually invincible..e.g. Distinctly Secret in NZ late last year! Do not listen to media hype about any particular horse and follow your own judgement and you will be a lot better off! Cheers. |
On Saturday 18.2.06 I thought there were two standouts in Sydney for the day:
SR6 1 Mnemosyne 4th (did anyone else have reservations regarding the ride?) SR9 2 Men At Work WON($4.00w$1.90plNSW) Also in Melbourne: MR7 2 Undue 3rd ( $2.70plNSW) MR7 3 Glamour Puss 4th MR711Rewaaya 2nd ( $1.60plNSW) Investing in the ratio of 1x5 returned a respectable POT and if astute punters followed this betting approach then this season's punting should return an ongoing profit/income stream. Cheers. |
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The class horses came good again today, well as least one of them did. Mornington race 7 the Hareeba Sprint - two horses stood out on class Hollow Bullet & Ellicorsam. Hollow Bullet I couldn't have as while is has won about $1.5mil it was first-up having come off a very bad prep last start when it has seven runs without winning. OTOH, Ellicorsam, having its second start for the Freedman stable, is a Group 2 winner in Perth having won over $500,000 & was racing at its pet distance of 1200m (5 wins from 7 starts) today. Beautiful & at $7.50 top fluc it don't get any better!! :-) |
So the simple theory is to just back the best class horse 1x5 ew. in a race and we are forever in clover ?
So what are the rock solid rules for working out the above? Do we go on average prize money, SR or our or someone else's idea of a runners 'potential' ? Or, is it some sort of combo of the three [or more requirements] that has solid rules? Except for those races where the Class runner is obvious, if there is no solid rules to define the class runner, we are back to making subjective decisions about class and which runner is the best class in a race. These are serious questions, I'm not trying to take the micky here, just trying to define and get my head around what is on the surface a great idea, but below the surface seems very vague and loose. Example of vague and loose: How could anyone say before the race [considering the standard of runners involved] MR711 Rewaaya 2nd ( $1.60plNSW) was the class horse of the race to back? When it comes to Stakes, Group and any other high class races with many classy horses running, we are back to good old fashioned personal preferences and tipping. The Aust. stakes result only proves [finally] Rewaaya could hold his head up in that class of race. Before the race that was an unknown even to the trainer who said the race was it's big test of class. We can't make money on Class back-fitting. |
La Mer,
You could have made the 'class' claim for a couple of other runners in that race if the result had been different. Your blatantly back-fitting class. Race 8 was another listed race. What happened to the 'class' runners? Ulysses is a good horse but others in the race had arguably better class claims. It's so easy to point the finger after a race and say the class horse won. |
Also La Mer, there was a very good reason NOT to back Ellicorsam at Monington [and it's odds reflected that], as anyone familiar with it's lay-out would tell you -the barrier for the distance. A Shocker and more good luck and top riding was involved in the win than just class or distance specialist. Con's Army has the claim for distance AND track, not Ellicorsam. Sure it had the class claim but could have easily lost it due to barrier draw. I thought it's SP was unders all things considered. Of course after the race it's all so easy to claim this and that.
How about some [future] prediction for Saturday based on 'class':-) Quote from first post in this thread: "Horses with a win strike rate of 20-25% and an overall place percentage of >80%are generally deemed to be class horses. Generally, horses with this proven consistency ratio can be expected to perform similarly in the future". End quote. A wonderful way to determine 'class', but with all the good races coming up, that describes a large % of the runners !! |
too much science
ellicorsam, ulysses and precise timing had all won or placed in listed company within the past 3 starts.
kountethecash i think had not placed at this level since february last year i have no argument with class of the horses that won. |
Either have I topsy but boy, the cherry picking going on with back-fitting for the class winner in this thread is spectacular.
For ever back-fitted class horse winning that has been mentioned, I'll give you 10 cherry picked back-fitted class horses that we would have lost on. Another worn quote here is 'the class horse winning in 'elite' company' that should have been backed. Can I ask who the 'elite' 'horses where that the [obvious?] 'class horse' was running against? Er... other class horses perhaps? A little intellectual challenge regarding punting reality doesn't go astray and shouldn't be confused with disagreeing for the sake of it [a handy accusation when houses made of cards fall to the ground]. |
i know the feeling as what happened yesterday doesnt always happen.
for example petite oiseau was the launceston cup favorite and placed group 3 in the hobart cup last start. i saw it run the start before when it finished (fourth i think) it was unable to take a run when offered and appeared lack dash. i disregarded it yesterday on that count and its price was unrealistic. punting is always a question of being right now and again and hope that you come out in front. backfitting is one way of proving your ideas but when practised ahead e.g. on todays racing it is not so easy as so many horses may fit the profile. recent placings in listed or group racing and a good price is probably the best i can do. however i did back the 3 horses mentioned (for a change). i have nothing at all today sir craiglee is the only listed horse running at canterbury and hasnt won since the cows came home. it would be a lost cause trying to backfit sir craiglee |
good to see the brake slipped a few pills in you drink there crash,you were starting to get all lippy again.....................
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Mogadons mate. There great. Just add coke and knock em down! Does the trick every time.
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