Selections: March 30th
 

Last lot of selections for the time being. Hope you haven't lost too much :o

I'll do the normal results summary tomorrow, and early next week I'll crunch some numbers to see who really won - the Pixie or the Donkey.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070330-0030 Ascot - Openditch
20070330-0055 Lingfield - Lucayos
20070330-0130 Lingfield - Sgt Schultz

Nice!......again.

Thanks Merri. It looks better than it is though. More on this to come.

Results: March 30th
 

Finished the trial on a winning note :)

I think we actually did pretty well considering that the Daily Donkey have posted a +10,000 result for March. Only the fifth time ever.

I'm in the process of creating a couple of spreadsheets that throw a very different perspective of the results below. Stay tuned, you may get a shock :eek:

Date-Time Course - Name
20070330-0030 Ascot - Openditch ... LOST +1.00
20070330-0055 Lingfield - Lucayos ... LOST +1.00
20070330-0130 Lingfield - Sgt Schultz ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 30th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 136
Successful Selections: 117
Strike Rate: 86.02%
Profit: +36.22 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.85 units
Net Profit: +30.37 units
Net POT: 22.33%

Daily Donkey:**
===
Number of Selections: 766
Successful Selections: 587
Strike Rate: 76.63%
Profit: +81.21 units
Commission @ 5%: -29.35 units
Net Profit: +51.86 units
Net POT: 6.77%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

**Upon checking my recorded results with those recorded by the Daily Donkey, I found that I was giving them a bit more credit than they were giving themselves. I'd made a couple of small errors in my calculations (I'll blame staying up so late), so these are the corrected figures.

Well done AP.

Here's a quick and dirty lay system that works on Aussie racing.

Metro races only
Unitab rating less than 75
Lay up to double the prepost price only.

There's been three winners in three months for a profit of around 100+ units

Nice one. I'll check it out.

Here's a back system you could have a look at. Instead of laying the Daily Donkey selections, back them. When you adjust for obtainable SP you'll be on a small but steady winner.

C.P.,

Am I reading your post correctly? Had a quick look at yesterday's five metro tracks. There were no horses that qualified (75 or less)! There were two at 76, one at 77.

At that rate there are not going to be too many lays!

Angry, gotta admit I've never tried things this way round, though I have on several occasions found myself being able to cover a field @95% or there abouts using fixed odds, the feelings great, sheet it's like buying money, now i know why all those bookies have that sick smile on their face. Just to be able to laugh when the fav is left in the stalls then the 2nd fav is boxed in, then the 3rd fav gets gallopped on etc etc dosen't matter, at least 5% for sweet F/A makes you wonder how come it's legal??

n'way, 6% or so still seems pretty slim with an element of risk???? NO RISK yes ok, but 6% with a risk???? r u happy with that??

:o There's a first time for everything.


You mean the Daily Donkey's 6.77% POT. I'd have to agree with you. These figures are SP too. You can't lay all the Daily Donkey selections and make money.

The 22.33% we managed (at SP also) is another matter. You'd probably manage a 6-10% POT at Betfair prices if you got your timing right, or if you were aggressive with your pricing and were prepared to leave a few that were too long.

Is 6% too slim? After expenses and at Betfair prices no I don't think so. My main business is laying Oz races where after expenses I'm doing around 7.1% at level stakes, with a 93.2% SR and and a 0.48% chance of success due to luck. I'll place about 10 lays on a race day and turn over my whole bank a little over once in doing so. There are good days and bad naturally, but these are very robust figures so I just churn away and marvel at the wonders of compound interest ;)

Well, good on ya, I just can't get my head around the figures involved, some blockage or just dumb?? when we're away my wife has to drive as I just can't "get" driving on the right, she manages no problem.
Anyway, keep it up!

Thanks Poop.

You could write pages on risk I guess, but in the end everybody has a different perspective on how much they're prepared to take on.

Your driving left side here though aren't you? ;)

Wots dat?

Burrah

It's possible to assess the long term viability of a method by doing a simple Chi-Square test. The following page has some punting based examples.

http://www.0dd5.com/matharchie.shtml

In the case of my current Oz lay method I'm 99.52% confident that my results to date are due to some factor other than luck. Sounds a bit of a w_a_n_k I know but it's a great way to measure your success against other punting methods, or indeed other forms of investment.

Excellent site, many thanks.
Guess I'll have to record my bets in writing to work out some of the stats. I'll check and see if my betting history on betfair will do the trick. Normally all I do is keep an eagle eye on my current balance. When it's up = happy, when down, depresed. Using maths might be the go for my confidence.
Again many thanks.

Selections: April 20th
 

Here's some UK lay selections for tonight using a more selective variation of last months Beat The Donkey method. Good luck. :)

THIR 2330 Coconut Queen
LING 0245 Cativo Cavallino
HERE 0330 Travello

jusxt a memo and just woke up am ********ed again way 2 much cab shaz gord will prob no doubt not recall this ramble...if in case i do food 4 thought ...chrome p s thread about somethin got my interest 2 day and i made a killing on the plkace and onya kenchar u r my inspire on that account>>>>>>.

Results: April 20th
 

Great start :eek:

THIR 2330 Coconut Queen ... LOST +1.00
LING 0245 Cativo Cavallino ... WON -7.00
HERE 0330 Travello ... LOST +1.00

Selections: April 23rd
 

Good luck :)

HEX_ 2330 Star Fever
HEX_ 2330 Hold The Bid
PONT 0010 Sir Xaar

Results: April 23rd
 

Hope the rest of your punting day goes ok. :)

HEX_ 2330 Star Fever ... LOST +1.00
HEX_ 2330 Hold The Bid ... LOST +1.00
PONT 0010 Sir Xaar ... LOST +1.00

Selections: April 24th
 

STHL 2330 Hatton Flight
FOLK 2340 Nou Camp
WOLV 2355 Fuel Cell
STHL 0005 Rudry World
FOLK 0015 Malapropism

Best of luck.

Results: April 24th
 

Fuel Cell got the blows a bit but we're back in the black. :cool:

STHL 2330 Hatton Flight ... LOST +1.00
FOLK 2340 Nou Camp ... LOST +1.00
WOLV 2355 Fuel Cell ... LOST +1.00
STHL 0005 Rudry World ... LOST +1.00
FOLK 0015 Malapropism ... LOST +1.00

Sorry no selections tomorrow night.

Selections: April 26th
 

Only one selection today. Good luck :)

YARM 0500 Power Of Future

Results: April 26th
 

Boo :(

YARM 0500 Power Of Future ... WON -5.00

Bye bye Donkey
 

I'll put the Donkey to bed I think while the damage isn't to bad.