Today - a profit of 7.35 units

May Tally

188 wagers
27.49 units profit (less the 5% commission)
14.62% POT

Sunday - a profit of 6.75 units

May Tally

232 wagers
34.25 units profit (less the 5% commission)
14.76% POT

Since posting the bets and releasing the method via email here are the overall results...

1,135 wagers
126.42 units profit (less the 5% commission)
11.14% POT

Longest priced winner $8.00

Nice one Chrome
 

Thanks again :D

A loss of 4.73 units today. Was looking a lot worse until Nash punched the last winner in Sydney home at drifting of 84% ;)

Although I have recorded the win price as $4.20 according to the rules, as high as $4.60 was available on the horse in the last few minutes.

Taking the selections as top rated horses, they are easily outperforming other websites that you have to pay big dollars for, and you don't have to worry about track condition or first uppers or first starters ;)
And it's all free!

May Tally

262 wagers
29.75 units profit (less 5% commission)
11.36% POT

A small loss of 1.88 units today.

After a very suspicious day all round, a loss of 6.12 units.

Why suspicious?
I've never seen so many heavily supported horses run unplaced in one day -ever. Not lost, but unplaced!
On top of that, even the drifters failed to win at the expected rate.

Now that they've made their money, it's our turn tomorrow ;)

May Tally

321 wagers
22.15 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.90% POT

Regardless of the goings on, still beating them at their own game ;)

Chrome

Are you seeing this again today? After your posting of yesterday I thought I'd watch a few markets and there has been some huge changes right at the end of betting :(

AP,

I'm offsite betting remotely today, so I'll update everything when I return.
It's more in our favour today though (depending on the last few races).

One thing to be aware of is that the site used can sometimes "play" around when they sniff punters have found an advantage.

If I strike three consecutive days in a row where this happens, I stop and resume when it gets back to normal.

Red herrings can soon send you broke. :(

why not try waiting for a win at the venue first then stop at your first profit//

Hi ****************,

Because this method involves both backing and laying strategies.
There really is no reason to stop at a profit if the odds are in your favour longterm.

It's just when various bookies put up some dummy odds that it messes things up.

Today was better - 3.06 units profit.

May Tally

355 wagers
25.21 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.10% POT

Been a few days now since double digit profit, looking forward to the next three days in particular ;)

Have been asked to post the last two months together, so here 'tis...

April / May Tally

1258 wagers
117.39 units profit (less 5% commission)
9.33% POT

As you can gather May kicked off gangbusters and then proceeded to slump way below the average - as Keating said "A correction is imminent" :D

My positive thinking yesterday, led to a nice 10.53 unit profit today!

May Tally

381 wagers
35.74 units profit (less the 5% commission)
9.38% POT

April / May Tally

1284 wagers
127.91 units profit (less 5% commision)
9.96% POT

Maximum price of winner still only $8.00

My personal goal is 200 units profit by May 31st.

A loss of 8.89 units today.

May Tally

442 wagers
27.29 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.17% POT

April / May Tally

1345 wagers
119.47 units profit (less 5% commission)
8.88% POT

Chrome

Do you have a feel for whether your method is more successful on the weekend or on a weekday?

Hi Chrome Prince
Had a profit of 2 units today. I don't lay or back any horse that opens up $4 or longer, it seems to be working at the moment.

Cheers

Hi Angry Pixie,

There have been a lot more bets midweek obviously, but since going live, here's the breakdown...

Saturday's Only:

336 wagers
45.91 units profit(less 5% commission)
13.66% POT

Weekday:

1009 wagers
73.56 units profit(less 5% commission)
7.29% POT

Good one Crackone,

You might want to have another look at it though.

Opened $4 or longer:

301 wagers
64.89 units profit (less 5% commission)
21.56% POT

Opened less than $4

1044 wagers
54.57 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.23% POT

"You might want to have another look at it though."

My spread sheet reads like this

All up
307 bets
14.48 units profit (started on the biggest loser day)

$4 & above

65 bets
25 unit lose

Laying the $4 above 1.5 units profit
Backing the Firmers and Drifters is the big loser 26.5 units only two winners in 29 bets

This is opposite to your sample spread sheet where both are in good profit.

I find a good day can be spoilt by a $4 lay getting up late in the day.

Crackone,

Is this your own spreadsheet from when you started?
I can't follow why there is such a remarkable difference.

Are you absolutely certain that the drift/lay bet percentages are calculating correctly? I.E. that firmers are sometimes bet or lay propositions as are drifters.

If you think it is, or you are actually using my spreadsheet to calculate it, then some investigation is needed.

EDITED: Actually, upon thinking about it, you could be experiencing a temporary trend.
I thought about what you said a few weeks ago myself about a high priced horse spoiling an otherwise good day. It sometimes certainly works out that way, but to balance it out, when a drifter goes from $3.00 to $5.50 and you can get up to $6.00 on Betfair, it makes up for it.

Anyway, keep doing what you're comfortable with, as long as you're in profit, it doesn't matter, and you can look at it again when you have more data and make a decision.

Is this your own spreadsheet from when you started?

Yes

Are you absolutely certain that the drift/lay bet percentages are calculating correctly? I.E. that firmers are sometimes bet or lay propositions as are drifters.

Yes


EDITED: Actually, upon thinking about it, you could be experiencing a temporary trend.
I thought about what you said a few weeks ago myself about a high priced horse spoiling an otherwise good day. It sometimes certainly works out that way, but to balance it out, when a drifter goes from $3.00 to $5.50 and you can get up to $6.00 on Betfair, it makes up for it.

This is what I thought, it may be trend or a correction, time will tell. (only watching for now)

Crackone,

Here's some more information, if you find it helpful.

Laying the horses (fitting the criteria) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

194 wagers
57.11 units profit (less 5% commission)
29.44% POT


Backing the horses (fitting the criteria) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

107 wagers
7.83 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.32% POT

Laying the horses (regardless of the rules) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

301 wagers
49.29 units profit
16.37% POT

Backing the horses (regardless of the rules) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

301 wagers
-51.88 units profit
-17.23% POT

** These figures are based on opening price at the 0min 0sec mark, not the flucs, not the final and not the Betfair price. The actual profit and loss is based on the Betfair price.

Hi Chrome

I must be doing something wrong (or right!). Yesterday was my best day by far using your system. ps I never, NEVER, back odds on, and I did chicken out of some bets, both lay and back, using my own judgement.

Good stuff Mark!

There are plenty of variations to my original criteria, and as Crack One pointed out, there's a lot of variation to make money out of.

The whole thing rotates on identifying a profitable trend one way or the other, and identifying when a horse is backable or layable. Within that there is plenty of room to make adjustments to suit personal style.

Well done.

Poor day today...

A loss of 16.17 units, which I think breaks the record for the worst day ever.

However,

May Tally

476 wagers
11.93 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.51% POT

April / May Tally

1379 wagers
104.11 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.55% POT

After such a strong April, if I lose the profit for May at anytime I will stop betting and record the rest of May, before restarting in June.

Perhaps the only funny thing about this was Sunshine Coast Race 3 where the caller says "And they settle down to fight it out clear of Catchit"

I wasn't aware that cats left deposits on the Sunshine Coast track :D

Chrome

I love a good conspiracy theory. Things have gone downhill a little since you made your method public. Wonder who you sent it to ;)

Angry Pixie,

I don't think it's who I sent it to at all, and I was very careful not to publish it fully on the forum.

It's kind of easy to blame a bad run on things like that, if anything it could be that those using it are betting back onto IAS causing some fluctuations (although I also doubt that), the whole idea was to solely use Betfair so things like that did not occur.

That could be one explanation, but in reality there are probably quite a few other reasons for the downturn, which is why I'll stop if May goes to a loss and reassess.

Having said that, it's quite likely that the next few days could recoup all losses.

Yes natural ebb and flow I suspect. It's a very interesing approach that appears to have opened the door to quite a few variations. :)

Yes, natural ebb and flow AP.

Got it all back plus more today.

Just waiting for the last to jump and will post tally ;)

19.11 units profit today, with almost all bets going the way of the parameters.
Very satisfying after such a poor couple of days.

May Tally

497 wagers
31.05 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.25% POT

April / May Tally

1400 wagers
123.22 units profit (less 5% commission)
8.80% POT

There's still room for improvement as the May POT is about half the April POT.

With regard to conspiracy theories, the VRC are examining the mobile phone records of up to 10 jockeys.

Guaranteed when they release the meetings in question it will line up perfectly with the poorer results.

I'm over 6 foot :)

Hehe, maybe they're ringing eachother perpetuating the forum hoodoo, and backing the lay bets and laying the back bets.

Still, they are losing :D

Will be interesting to see whether there's a match up. As I said earlier in the thread, like you I noticed some strange happenings. No fluke the markets came back to normal on the day that the news became public. ;)

3 cheers for Chrome Prince.

I thought that myself.
Any set of markets will have variation, fluctuation and general volatility, but there have been at least two days in May with severely strange happenings way beyond the normal bounds of expectation.

A small 1.51 unit loss today.

Hmmm, a very shaky start today, almost 12 units down already, but we're not even a third the way through, so it could change dramatically.

Yes Chrome, a very dodgy start, but selective laying/backing, not always correct I might add, has seen me finish in front.........again. This is going gangbusters.