I'm sure Aidan O'Brien was the same bloke that brought out Vintage Crop and that other horse [can't remember it's name]. Vintage crop was the underdog of the two [ho ho].

The same plan this time? Maher is here to help set up the race for Scorpion I think and is the one to watch as the smokey but we don't know how well he will settle in.

Duro Valley had every chance to win last start and couldn't. Blue Monday got held up a bit in the straight but wouldn't have had a hope of catching Master O'rielly who ran the Caulfield Cup very close to the race record. The Fuzz ran a great race yesterday.

I think the uneven conditions of the new Flemington track will have a big say in the MC outcome, but I wouldn't want to be on anything running next to the fence!

I think Dermot Weld trained Vintage Crop, & also trained Media Puzzle, didn't he?

You might be right there. The old memory isn't what it used to be :-)

Thanks chuck. Is the acceptance after CC?. If no, can I say that Duoro Valley is higher than 27 as of now? Do advise if you know. Thanks.

Correct. Aiden O'Brien trained Yeats.

Yeats and Scorpion - courtesy of the RacingPost

Sunday was a day for horses with courage. At Doncaster Mahler fought hard to hold his place at the head of affairs in the St Leger, sticking his neck out as far as he could, and had he not stumbled he may have won. Stablemate Honolulu was flying at the finish but neither of them could repel John Gosden’s giant of a horse, Lucarno. Lucarno gave Gosden his first St Leger, and rider Jimmy Fortune his first classic.

Meanwhile in Ireland Yeats secured his and his trainers first ********** St Leger but stablemate Scorpion did not go down without a brave fight. Yeats showed just how classy he is, and how determined he and his jockey are.

You had to feel sorry for Scorpion who gave his all. But the St. Leger win came after Yeats was beaten in his two previous attempts and perhaps the 5 year old Scorpion will be back next year to win his.

Kieren Fallon held Yeats in mid-division as Scorpion, under Seamus Heffernan, held a comfortable lead throughout much of the race. Two furlongs out, Scorpion seemed to find another gear and spurted three lengths clear of the field.

Fallon had Yeats under a stiff drive and at first didn’t appear to make any headway on the leader. Fallon kept after his charge, and Yeats dug in and gradually wore down Scorpion to win by a half-length.

Anyone know how Scorpion (and Mahler) are going? I heard they lost a fair bit of weight on the way over but judging by the betting I assume they're working ok..

Mahler lost 6 kg and Scorpion lost 5 kg after the flight over which is normal they both ate on the way over and have fed since then. They worked at Sandown just a light cantor nothing serious as yet. Ive backed Scorpion a while ago and i think it will be in with a good chance although Mahler has been backed in quite abit. I still like the 61-1 i got about On a Jeune!

Thanks for that Northern. Re OAJ, I'm with you, I got on @ 100/1 before the EI reframed the market.

04/08/2007

20:14

04/08/2007

Win

2007 MELBOURNE CUP (ALL IN) ON A JEUNE. All In Betting

101

I don't think it's going well enough at the moment, I hope I'm wrong though, I like the horse, although it did cost me a few bob for very little outlay when it ran 2nd to the mare a couple of years back when I had a Derby/Cup double of Benicio/OAJ before the Geelong Cup at 5000/1.

I hope you're on a winner, although a mate of mine told me on the weekend that it had buckleys because no horse starting with O has ever won the cup. I hope it draws barrier 18 and ********s it in lol. GL.

Happy to be on Master Orielly 13's now into 5's
On A Juene 61's now into 17's
Black Tom 51's now out to 81's..
i'm having a spec bet on red Lord at the 151's ,,incase he wins very well tomorrow,,

I really think the Master looks way to good.....heard something about On a Jeune that he has bad legs ??? maybe thats why the diffferent prep this year...

My current MC selection :

1) Zipping
2) Princess Coup
3) Duoro Valley
4) Master Oreilly.

We all like to say "we backed the winner" but really from a betting point of view, surely forget everything else just back the first 2 or 3 in the market year in year out and you'd be in front wouldn't you?

Personally, I'll be having my usual Tri 2x3x7 ($10 @ 50c units) I snagged one a few years back for $500, so I figure I can have the same bet for 50 years with "THEIR" money!

L.O.L ;-)

Just don't leave out Master O'reilly in the first 2 for the win. The big problem is working out the other horse to put in the first 2 [?]

Hayes is having words with owners, so it looks like Miss Finland might be out of the Cup.
I remember reading an article about a week ago and Hayes saying MF would have to at least place to go into the Cup. She had no excuses this year. I can't believe punters keep backing her at ridiculous odds when she keeps getting beaten. 'Champion'?

3rd acceptances
 

1 SCORPION (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 58.5
2 TAWQEET (USA) David Hayes 56.5
3 BLUE MONDAY (GB) David Hayes 55.5
4 GALLIC (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55
5 RAILINGS Roger James 55
6 BLUTIGEROO Colin Little 55
7 EFFICIENT (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 54
8 MAYBE BETTER Brian Mayfield-Smith 53.5
9 ZIPPING Graeme Rogerson 53.5
10 TUNGSTEN STRIKE (USA) Amanda Perrett 53.5
11 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien 53
12 MISS FINLAND David Hayes 53
13 BLACK TOM David Hayes 53
14 PURPLE MOON (IRE) Luca Cumani 53
15 LAZER SHARP David Hayes 52
16 ON A JEUNE Andrew J Payne 52
17 SCENIC SHOT Daniel Morton 52
18 MANDELA (NZ) Richard Yuill 52
19 KING OF ASHFORD (NZ) Lee Freedman 52
20 SARRERA Michael Moroney 51.5
21 ANNENKOV (IRE) Peter G Moody 51.5
22 SIRMIONE Bart Cummings 51
23 DOURO VALLEY Danny O'Brien 51
24 DOLPHIN JO Terry & Karina O'Sullivan 51
25 NEW KID IN TOWN (NZ) Lee Freedman 51
26 THE FUZZ (NZ) David Hayes 51
27 PRINCESS COUP Mark Walker 50.5
28 ESKIMO QUEEN (NZ) Michael Moroney 50.5
29 SCULPTOR (NZ) Peter Mckenzie 50.5
30 UTILITY (NZ) Pat Carey 50.5
31 MAHLER (GB) Aidan O'Brien 50
32 DESERT MASTER Brian Jenkins 50
33 ZAVITE (NZ) Anthony Cummings 50
34 SENTIRE (NZ) Robbie Laing 50
35 BAY STORY (USA) Brian Ellison 50
36 SOUTHERN COURAGE (NZ) Mick Price 50
37 CEFALU (CHI) Lee Freedman 50
38 PACINO Clinton McDonald 50
39 BEST BEWARE Lindsey Smith 49

Something has haapened with Scorpion?? Its a doubtful starter and once again my late mail will end up in the drain!! I cant win with these Future bets.

MAHLER still gotta be a chance? Master O'reilly+Mahler[?]

Yep, pulled up sore following a morning workout. To be X-rayed to find out the extent of an injury.

Will be scratched tomorrow when O'Brien arrives. One down, two to go ;)

my latest top 5
 

Purple Moon
Zipping
Gallic
Maybe Better
Tawqeet

looks like a WEAK cup this year
will they even have 24?

A weak cup and a bad betting week.

They should have moved the flemington carnival to Sandown this year to give all the horses a fair chance on a stable track surface.

Flemington will be a shifting track, very biased and over-watered. Anyhow, it should be a good track by next spring after the surface settles down. Something to look forward too.

My top four
Master Oreilly
Purple Moon
Blue Monday
Maybe Better

Best Roughie
Scenic Shot currently @ $81

Its going to be a hard race to pick this yr (nothing new) hard to leave out horses like Gallic, even Efficient and Zipping who will be much better suited to the trip.

Scorpion is out. It is official.
Crash is right on the money about the track.

I dont understand how you can say there was a bias, sure the inside was a no go zone last time, but horses won from everywhere. Horses that have won or raced well at flemington did so and horses that generally dont perform did the same. Is it the fact that we have got so used to Caulfield and Mooney Valley racing that we have forgotten what its like on a big track with a nice long straight, that the same horses winning at Caulfield at Mooney valley arn't necessarily going to be suited by the different track and therefore we need to adjust to something we havnt had for almost a year? Its not like the form hasnt stacked up, The Fuzz ran 2nd, Vormista clearly an in form horse won like it should have, Serious Speed massive run for 2nd has since franked its form, the Turnbull had some great runs in it and for those that didnt run well the trainers all blamed the track, yet the only horse that improved off its turnbull run won its next race, and its still a maiden at flemington. [END RANT]

Currently some very interesting examples of market efficiency in the MC futures market with the aptly named Efficient.

He was unloved in the market 24 hours ago, until I heard a 2KY piece about his trackwork.

Nothing much changed for 20 hours until this piece ended up in the next morning newspapers.

To me, schooling disinterested horses over jumps doesn't appear that newsworthy or significant but its newspaper reporting has been enough to arrest Efficient's slump from $25 into $14 on Betfair.

My bet is this is a great lay for the moment.

lol. lol.
I'll stick to the horse's known form ...lousy [40/1].

Trainers hype up their horse's chances to keep in good with the owners [to keep training them]. Jockies do it to to keep sweet with the Trainers.

Eskimo Queen ew @ 20/1 deserves a change of luck
Master O'Reilly could easily add his name to the CC / MC winners list
Overseas invaders Mahler & Tungsten Strike a chance if any ability, against one of the weakest MC fields in ages

gone are the days of great horses racing in the melbourne cup. seems the last 10 years every year we discuss the lack of quality entered in the race

Mahler is really only a 3yr. old and was only here to sacrifice itself to set up a decent pace for Scorpion and is a very uptight horse, especially now her stablemate is stuffed.
Eskimo Queen didn't fire a shot in the Cox, despite being unnecessarily flogged to death by Newitt. Horses usually produce a very ordinary run after that sort of treatment.

Master O'riely still looks the goods I think. Gallic ran a fast race last week in the M.V Cup for a nice win and Scenic Shot did a big turn-around in form in the Jayco Mile after being ridden back, so I'm not sure what to make of that[?]

Can't recall any weaker field than the line-up this year!

Agreed....

MASTER O'REILLY
DOURO VALLEY
GALLIC
BAY STORY

current market - not had one for a while
 

MASTER OREILLY 4.50 1.87
PURPLE MOON 7.50 2.62
MAHLER 10.00 3.25
ZIPPING 11.00 3.50
EFFICIENT 13.00 4.00
GALLIC 13.00 4.00
MAYBE BETTER 15.00 4.50
MISS FINLAND 15.00 4.50
BLUE MONDAY 21.00 6.00
PRINCESS COUP 21.00 6.00
TAWQEET 21.00 6.00
DOURO VALLEY 26.00 7.25
ESKIMO QUEEN 26.00 7.25
ON A JEUNE 26.00 7.25
THE FUZZ 26.00 7.25
BLUTIGEROO 31.00 8.50
LAZER SHARP 31.00 8.50
TUNGSTEN STRIKE 31.00 8.50
DOLPHIN JO 51.00 13.50
SCENIC SHOT 81.00 21.00
SIRMIONE 81.00 21.00
ZAVITE 81.00 21.00
BLACK TOM 101.00 26.00
MANDELA 101.00 26.00
PACINO 101.00 26.00
SARRERA 101.00 26.00
DESERT MASTER 151.00 38.50
KING OF ASHFORD 151.00 38.50
RAILINGS 201.00 51.00
SCULPTOR 201.00 51.00
SENTIRE 201.00 51.00
ANNENKOV 301.00 76.00
BAY STORY 301.00 76.00
BEST BEWARE 301.00 76.00
CEFALU 301.00 76.00
NEW KID IN TOWN 301.00 76.00
SOUTHERN COURAGE 301.00 76.00
UTILITY 301.00 76.00

Master O'Reilly
Purple Moon
Gallic
Zipping

BAY STORY 300/1! OMG!!

Well we're off to Melbourne tomorrow morning for the annual horsefest, good luck to you blokes for the rest of the carnival, I hope you all back a winner. E.I? Weak field? Rain? Track bias? I could care less, it's gonna be a ************ great week as always.

Derby - I'm sticking with Villain although Down Under Boy is my best return.

Cup - Master O'Reilly the obvious choice but I like a bit of value so I'll continue to take Princess Coup and Blue Monday and have a lash while they are over 20/1. Scenic Shot is best of the roughies for me at this stage. Best return for me overall though funnily enough due to earlier CC/MC and GC/MC doubles is Tawqueet.

Oaks - I don't really care too much for Oaks Day, I'm usually running on empty after too many nights on the turps and I'm ready to head home, and the Mrs is with me so I'm unlikely to join the skirt chasers. I'd rather be at the casino nursing a beer and watching the aussies smash sri lanka in the first test. Dianas Secret will do me though.

Back em well and have fun, Kanga.

Master O'Reilly
Gallic
Zipping
Purple Moon

Anyone think that Zevite can win MC?. I have just jumped on it!!!

Master O'Reilly