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The Roller Coaster
Wednesday 26/10/2011
Current Bank(Lay)............$458.80..Current Bank(Back).........$1215.67 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00($6.00) Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time) Bendigo R 4 No 1/8 Bendigo R 5 No 7/9 Bendigo R 6 No 1/8 Warwick Farm R 4 No 6 Bendigo R 7 No 2/3 Warwick Farm R 5 No 2/3/5/7/8 Bendigo R 8 No 2/6/8 Balaklava R 6 No 2 Warwick Farm R 6 No 7/12 Eagle Garm R 5 No 3 Ascot R 2 No 2 Bendigo R 9 No 1/4/8/11 Warwick Farm R 7 No 2/4/6/10 Eagle Farm R 6 No 3/4/6/9 Ascot R 3 No 5/7 Bendigo R 10 No 7/9/10/16 Balaklava R 8 No 2/9 Eagle Farm R 7 o 4/7/12 Ascot R 4 No 5/6 Ascot R 7 No 1 |
The Roller Coaster
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The Roller Coaster
Update:
Wednesday 26/10/2011 Current Bank(Lay)............$458.80..Current Bank(Back).........$1215.67 Positives 5 x $9.50...........+$47.50...Negatives 5 x $10.........-$50.00 Negatives (5)..................-$175.00...Positives (5).................+$161.20 New Bank........................$331.30...New Bank......................$1326.87 Well what a day! Scratchings decimated numerous races. The Roller Coaster took an absolute shelacking!! The UB Train just seems to puff along. Although not in this selection process there are quite a few that bob up at good prices - 2 to-day @ $17.00 & $46.00 (Betfair) Will now have to seriously make these a contender. |
One way of betting those $15.00+ shots is to divide the horses price into a set Take out figure.
Example using 2% of $1000 bank. $20 divided by say 46.00 = O/L .43 Ret 20.00 O/L .43 Prof $19.60 and $20 divided by say $17.00 = 1.17 Ret 20.00 O/L 1.17 Profit $18.83 Doing it this way , we a limiting the liability as much as possible. It is also a way of betting where if it falls over , we are not going to lose any sleep. A punter naturally feels uncomfortable placing the same amount on a $46 shot as to say a 4.00 shot. They will often frighten themselves once they clap eyes on its high price & change their bet, only to see their original selection , get up to win at juicy odds - frustrating stuff. |
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Ofcourse I could always back them and then offset on a lay as the price came in "in running" just in case they are pipped on the post!!!!!!! |
The Roller Coaster
Thursday 27/10/2011
Current Bank(Lay)............$331.30..Current Bank(Back).........$1326.87 Gosford R 3 No 1 Gold Coast R 2 No 4/5 Ballarat R 6 No 2/5/9 Gosford R 6 No 6/9 Ballarat R 7 No 1/3 Gosford R 7 No 1/2/7/9 Gold Coast R 5 No 4/5 Ballarat R 8 6/11 Gold Coas t R 6 No 2/12 Launceston R 6 No 2/5/6/8 Launceston R 7 No 12 Launceston R 9 No 2/3/4/9/10 |
The Roller Coaster
Update;
Dontcha just hate scratchings; Delete; Ballarat Race 6, Gosford Race 6, Ballarat R 7, Launceston Race 7 |
The Roller Coaster
Update:
Thursday 27/10/2011 Current Bank(Lay)............$331.30..Current Bank(Back).........$1326.87 Positives 6 x $9.5............+$57.00...Negatives 6 x $10...........-$60.00 Negative (1)...................-$48.00...Positive (1)......................+$44.65 New Bank.......................$340.30...New Bank.......................$1311.22 |
The Roller Coaster
Thursday 27/10/2011
Current Bank(Lay)............$340.30..Current Bank(Back).........$1311.22 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00($6.00) Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time. Ipswich R 1 No 3 Bathurst R 3 No 6 Stawell R 5 No 3/7 Bathurst R 7 No 1/3/5/7 Ipswich R6 No 2/7 Stawell R 8 No 2/7/9 Bathurst R 4 No 2/8 Ipswich R 7 No 1/5 Northam R 6 No 2/4/6/8 M Valley R 2 No 2/4/6/8 Northam R 7 No 1/4 M Valley R 4 No 11 M Valley R 5 No 2/4/6 Canterbury R 5 No 1/2/7 M Valley R 6 No 4/6 Canterbury R 6 No 1/6 M Valley R 7 No 2/7 Cantery R 7 No 2/3/4/11 M Valley R 8 No 2/4/7/12 |
It can be done using certain programs like Fairbot.
So as long as one does not do it for 20 races in a row & is made up of other bets betting around the $5.00 mark , they don't seem mind so much if its done now & then.. |
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The Roller Coaster
UPdate:
Thursday 27/10/2011 Current Bank(Lay)............$340.30..Current Bank(Back).........$1311.22 Positives 10 x $9.50.........+$95.00..Negatives 10 x $10.00.....-$100.00 Negatives (7)..................-$192.00..Positives (7)..................+$155.90 New Bank.......................$243.30...New Bank......................$1367.12 Well,as I stated at the start I was hoping for a 40% increase on the LAY Bank,I am absolutely "flummaxed" it is heading for an absolute BATH. Whilst the UB Train which started a couple of days later (2days to go) looks like realising the 40% or close to. On another side I am Happy Happy to-day. I previously mentioned a good number of WELL PRICED were getting up. Picked up a couple of nice ones to-day ($5) win Bet: Ipswich race 7 No 7 Tsani Star $34.00 BF (Pity about the DH) Northam Race 6 No 6 Flash Forward $22.00 BF ( There was a nice TRI $1800 for those inclined- could of, should of-but didn't) M Valley Race 6 No 6 Let's Be Happy $75.00 (NO DH) Had a total of 14 bets, and definately happy with the return. It will probably now fall in a hole. |
The Roller Coaster
Saturday 29/10/2011
Current Bank(Lay)............$243.30..Current Bank(Back).........$1367.12 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00($6.00) Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time. Fleming Race 2/12/15 Balina Race 3 No 7 Flemington Race No 6/7 Balina Race 4 No 1/7 Flemington Race 4 No 6 Rosehill Race 3 No 1/3/8 Dubbo Race 1 No 1/6 Doomben Race 2 No 3/7/9 Flemington R5 No 5/12 Rosehill Race 4 No 1/12 Doomben Race 3 No 3/9 Flemington Race 6 No 2/3/6/8/10/12/17 Balina Race 7 No 5 Morphettville Race 5 No 5 Gold Coast race 3 No 2/10 Rosehill Race % No 1 Doomben Race 4 No 1/2/9/10 Flemington Race 7 No 3/15/16 Rosehill Race 6 No 9/15 Traralgon Race 5 No 1 Dubbo Race 4 No 3/10 Doomben Race 5 No 11 Flemington Race 8 No 6/9/11 Ascot Race 2 No 4/6 Ballina Race 6 No 1 Morphettville Race 7 No 4/5/9 Gold Coast race 5 No 2/3/4/8 Rosehill Race 7 No 7/8/10/12 Traralgon Race 6 No 2/4 Doomben Race 6 No 8 /9/11 Dubbo R 5 No 2/3 Wyong Race 7 No 6 Flermington race 9 No2/3/510 Ascot Race 3 No 3 Morphettville Race 8 No 1/8/17 Mortlake Race 7 No 6 Gold Coast Race 6 No 4/9 Rosehill Race 8 No 1/4/6/8/9/13 Traragon Race 7 No 1 Doomben race 7 No 3/4/11 Wyong race 8 No 2/3/5 Toowoomba R 1 No 2/3 Ascot race 4 No 8 Morphettville Race 9 No 1/3/8/10 Gold Coast Race 7 No 12 Doomben Race 8 No 5/6/7 Toowoomba Race 3 No 2 Ascot Race 6 No 9/11/12/13 Ascot Race 7 No 6 /16 Ouch! that is one hellava list |
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All races subject to scratchings |
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UB Train going very well :) |
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Swings & Roundabouts most days. |
The Roller Coaster
Update:
Saturday 29/10/2011 Current Bank(Lay)............$243.30..Current Bank(Back).........$1367.12 Positives 13 x $9.50.......+$123.50..Negatives 13 x $10.00.....-$130.00 Negatives (3).................-$98.00....Positives (3)..................+$101.18 New Bank......................$268.80...New Bank.......................$1338.30 |
The Roller Coaster
Sunday 30/10/2011
Current Bank(Lay)............$268.80..Current Bank(Back).........$1338.30 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00($6.00) Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time. Goulburn race 3 No 1/2/7 Goulburn Race 4 No 2 Mornington race 5 No 4/10/11/13/14 Mt Gambier race 5 No 6 Echua Race 5 No 1/3/4 Goulburn Race 5 No 10 Mornington Race 6 No 4/6/8/10 Mt Gambier Race 6 No 5 Sunshine Coast Race 5 No 2/6/10 Mornington Race 7 No 4/9 Mt Gambier Race 7 No 10 Echuca Race 7 No 7 Goulburn Race 7 No 2 Sunshine Coast Race 6 No 4 Mornington Race No 10/12 Mt Gambier Race 8 No 5 Sunshine Coast Race 7 No 1 Albany Race 4 No 2/3 Albany Race 6 No 1/7 Albany Race 7 No 1/3 (subject to scratchings min 9 runners) |
No offence intended to anyone, and not directed at anyone in particular, but we seem to be overrun with "rubbish" (IMO) systems, 99% of which will prove to be slooooow deaths.
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 Hhmmm!?!? BUT is listed on my post. OK! point taken. Back to researching in obligatory. |
No place2win.........pure coincidence.........this was the last thread that I was reading. I had considered stating this on a new thread but was too lazy. I now wish I had. Again, no offence intended to anyone.
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Or am I mistaken and everyone is a winner? Just curious. |
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Only the real time betting can sort the wheat from chaff. |
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I have no problem at all with looking at past performance to predict future outcomes, I do it all the time but I draw the line at torturing data to submit and yield preconceived results. to wit, if one slavishly follows the line of say "last start winner" regardless of the last race class and other parameters pertaining to that race, then that is "backfitting" and most of the time it will fail. |
I think it's pretty good that people are having a go at systems.
As long as there is accurate data and logic to back it up. Unfortunately amongst the decent efforts we have "try this" or systems made up with innaccurate data. There's no hope of it making a profit. This is not directed at P2W, just an observation on other threads. The whole exercise is pointless if the data is wrong to start with or it's guess work, or there are two many irrational filters. |
Is it not true that these days Banks are using expect systems with past data variables to issue future loans to consumers. This technology has stopped defaults dramatically. Much of the Australian data is however limited and bought from overseas. If you have enough data, there is no reason why backfiltering won't work. Many will disagree, but hey, opinions are opinions.
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It is true that banks, insurance companies, advertising agencies, governments, ratings agencies, federal and state police all use data from relatively small sample sizes.
Scientists also use databases as part of their arsenal now. I have seen many illogical and unfounded conclusions to the data they use. But the major difference is they use this data to limit risk, rather than base all their profit on thought up filters. |
Its funny how some folk use the word "Back fitting " as a derogatory word.
If someone put forward a system with a proven failure rate over the last 150 bets , would anyone want to put real money on it.? I very much doubt it. Back data is all we can go on to start with, because the future is not available. One could argue that using rules like "must have run in last 7 days" as back fitting so as to show a profit. Example Neural std setting - Top selection Must have run within 7 days. These rules show an excellent profit according to the UB system checker. If you can get it to work now. |
Bhagwan,
The seven days rule is used by Read and Bartholemew in their ratings. It's something that improves strike rate and POT, so it's logical. It's also a well known fact among trainers that some horses do better with less time between runs, especially fully grown older types who otherwise can "train off". |
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I'm just saying a working system ain't a working system until it's done the real life test. |
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