Schmile

It has been a good couple of days hasn't it. Cleared 23.6 units on 48 lays since start of Aus racing yesterday which is pretty good for the bot. In saying that though I have just guarenteed at least 4 losing lays in a row :eek:

Mark I'll have a close look at what you've put up. I've often wondered ;)

CP, every race is different but I'm usually somewhere between liability and payout.
Not the last 6 months no, UK early markets have all but disappeared but that started several years ago. My turnover on Aus races has actually greatly increased over time.
Odds on, if I'm working it's just another race to me. I prefer it when there's a shorty because you've got good % in just one runner, makes making a book that much easier. Black Caviar is a case in point, I held more on each of her last 2 races than I did on all of last Saturday. They also give you a chance at a bigger win with a lower risk.
I'd like to know how you've smoothed the roller coaster if you don't mind emailing me.
As for system hunters (************ts) the last to steal one of my ideas is now out of business....wonder why.

michaelg, yes USA I tread lightly and usually get out when in front.
I do use SP where I can, some races are really good. Rocky R5 just run was 104%, not that I was on. Rightly or wrongly I'm having the afternoon off.

lomaca, appreciate your opinion but I bet it won't change a thing.

I guess that means I am just an AVERAGE PUNTER , as I have seen zero posted that will make me believe that someone here has something that is worth more than what I have.

Once I get my $7.6k up to $10k , I'll post some stuff.
Prolly take a couple months though , because I'm only making $1k a month - often less.

I disagree Moeee,

On those figures, you're much better than average!!

The 'average' punter hits the TAB after 3-5 minutes of form 'study' and watches their ill informed selection fail time and again, or gets a small win and doubles it up, only to lose, again.

If you're in profit, well done!

The Schmile

That's OK Mark, what you do and what I do are worlds apart.
Lay betting horses is more foreign to me than speaking chinese.
At least I speak a couple of words in chinese.

Thanks Shmile - I believe I'm doing better than many , if not most.

But my AVERAGE PUNTER was in response to Lomacas usage.

Seeing as you asked, I don't mind putting it up here.
I just didn't want to hijack the thread.

Market percentages at SP have tightened up quite significantly over recent months.
I think a few sharp minds cottoned on and now the margins at the shortest and longest ends of the market are much closer to zero.
It's the middle ground where the odds are still very very good (for laying).
So SP is still profitable but tightened up for me.

As an example average SP market percentage is now 100.58% a far cry from the 103% two years ago :(
This includes the variances of 104% or better and 96% and worse.

This is why I'm somewhat amazed at the results you got, although I realise you are creating your own markets rather than betting into an SP market.

My strategy would be more profitable laying those under $3.00 to payout $100 and those over $11.00 to payout $100 and anything between to payout say $120 or perhaps more.

If I were to simply lay the field to fixed liability of say $30.00 (the minimum)
I have turned over close to $730,000 for a profit of $3,550 or 0.49% before commission :eek:
This is vastly different to the previous years.

But again, when things like this happen, something else has to give, and give it does, better than laying the entire field ever was (for me).
That's about as much as I can say about the actual strategy.

The rollercoaster has been something that has concerned me for quite some time, it's not the results, it's the inability to utilise a bigger percentage of the bank afraid of those dreaded runs where every fancied or second fancied horse gets up in Aus, then UK, then USA for a day.
It happens often enough, that I cannot risk higher liability than my set percentage of bank.
The greatest damage comes from those odds on favourites that get on a run of success. They are still profitable to lay, but can really do some damage when they're hot.
So I simply bet back @ SP anything odds on for a fixed amount.
This only reduces the liability, but if it gets rolled I still make money.
If it wins I lose less money.

Hey I've only now had a look at these posts and back to square one. Of course all systems have BAD losing runs.
Backing favourites at 30% (?) strike rate alone you can back Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and still possibly not get a winner.
I suggest that no matter what selection system you are following be prepared for the dreaded outs but if you have figures to show that over a long period it has a reasonable average ( not an impracticable figure) plan to survive.
I have a staking system ( not rocket science ) which increases bets after a winner only. How many plans are chasing losses - 8 losers winner at $2.50, another 6 losers. How is your increasing bets after losers going now? Also after a winner at a certain sequence I return to GO and start again. All because I know that my averages will kick back in and I have learnt to, sometimes, cut losses ( I am very wimpy, not a gambler).
It all depends on your selection process. As wiser heads have said Keep It Simple, then if it proves itself over a period stick with it through good and bad because they are very hard to find.
This wisdom after a few sherberts.
Good Luck
Midas

Well said TheSchmile.

Some people here think that every post is somehow directed at them personally.
Nothing could be further from the truth, my comments were just a general observation about punters, you so eloquently described.

Good luck

No worries Iomaca,

We have plenty of time to refine our systems, check this out!! :)

Humans to live forever through Robots

The Schmile

hmm, 'forever' to chase the grail...nah, pass;)

TheSchmile,

That's where I think the smarties have all up side down, " to the battle field",
blimey, won't they EVER "get it", take it to the racetrack instead! geez,
A "Androind Punter , "live betting bot clones" at Randwick!
Ha !

Well not quite four in a row. The rest of the Aus day looked like this. Never pays to get too ahead of (up) ones self. :)


15:45 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1050m CL1/7. Her Diamonds 3.55 W +1.00
16:03 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R3 1600m 3yo/12. Evolve 6.8 W +1.00
16:03 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R3 1600m 3yo/14. La Reilly 7.2 W +1.00
16:14 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 1350m CL2/1. Honor Net 3.75 W +1.00
16:14 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 1350m CL2/3. Hot Millie 6.4 W +1.00
16:25 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R5 1300m CL1/13. Navillus Grandiva 6.8 W +1.00
16:25 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R5 1300m CL1/5. Callan Park 6.8 W +1.00
16:38 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1400m Mdn/10. Polish Knight 4.1 L -3.10
16:38 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1400m Mdn/14. Bendigo Belle 7 W +1.00
16:38 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1400m Mdn/6. Carronade 3.85 W +1.00
16:47 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R3 1200m 3yo/2. Fonzarelli 7.2 W +1.00
16:54 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1350m CL2/2. Road To Summer 6.2 L -5.20
16:54 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1350m CL2/3. Als Pride 7.8 W +1.00
17:34 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R8 1100m Hcap/10. Drop Of Magic 6 W 1.00
17:45 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1100m CL4/2. Down Another Track 7.2 L -6.20
17:48 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 1000m Hcap/8. Dashing Miss 7.8 L -6.80
18:07 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R5 1000m Mdn/3. Husslehoff 9.4 W +1.00
18:23 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1600m Hcap/2. Hygeld 7.6 L -6.60
18:23 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1600m Hcap/8. Somebodys Image 6.8 W +1.00
18:47 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 2013m Hcap/6. Neige 7.4 W +1.00
18:58 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R8 1400m Hcap/5. Dont Tell Trish 2.75 W +1.00
18:58 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R8 1400m Hcap/12. Good Reception 3.6 W +1.00
20:36 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R9 1200m CL1/9. Empress Of Ireland 4.3 W +1.00

Ooooo,

I LIKE that idea Puntz!!

No need to stay sober while putting on your investments at the track, 'got my android onto it!!' :)

The Schmile

Wise advice Angry Pixie,

I'll probably not have a freakish run like Wednesday's for another year, maybe more. I get the very occasional $20+ horse but my bread and butter is in the $3-7 range.

5 bets again today, looks like there's some goodies at the Valley tonight. A few nice ones tomorrow, then a break till Wednesday as I need to recharge.

The Schmile

more reason to stay sober, drunken clone bots at the races, geez, then there will be a squeaky mess, but hang on, the bookies will want to get in on act to,
android bookies, "Water-Droid", as in you know who...!

I think the Android bookies thing has already happened, the betting ring at most meetings has the collective personality of a block of wood.

The Schmile

That's pretty much my bread and butter laying price range. This current bot is laying down to a floor price of 3.55 (although there looks to be a shorter one in the prices above) and up to 9.6, which is a pretty consistant ceiling price with me. Earlier iterations of this has seen the bot using 5.3 as the floor price. Anything below this was either breakeven or a slight loss.

Funny isn't it. There's no correct method, just winning or losing methods.

Fast well connected bots are sucking the value out of the UK markets. If you want to really go up against it try trading the FTSE up's and downs on Betfair. Think most of the activity has moved off to Tradefair (think that's what its called) now but unless you were sitting infront of a Bloomberg terminal with a 10Gb link straight into Betfair you had no hope at all.

These days I prefer mortality, no where near where some here may be at, but appreciate the collective experience that's being read. Whether it's true or true hope, it done not really matter. It's there for the taking.

What Mark has posted is where I understand that type of number's "game", for lack of better terms, and true what is stated, many will not even have a 2nd look, or even a go at it. I'm the latter, but it's just interesting to watch.

Today, my betting?, well this is what is happening.
I bet, "peanut butter bets", but I don't lose. As long as 50 units is bet and get back Min 60 units in the scope of things, on the day, wonderful.
If I get a return of 150 units in the course of the day, that's ok to.
If I get that elusive big pay out Trifecta, well, fil'eagh mignon day.
Ya know, whether big is better or small is greater, so what.
Good luck to you all.

As far as the Android market is concerned?, well the Ancient Greeks had a idea, They said, "we have all the theory to make machines, but if we make the machines, we become slaves to the machines, the machines require constant service and looking after".
So it's arms length for me and all these never ending Gig thirsty computers.
Peanut Butter will do.

Lots of truth there Puntz - got my new Android 4G phone the other day only because my well used ancient Nokia finally bit the dust, RIP :( & think I have spent more time looking after it than my dogs of late!;)

it does have some pretty cool stuff tho...

Let's hope if your brain is imported or replicated into a computer, that computer is not runned nor maintained by BF.
May as well be dead!

more and more posts are confirming my own thoughts.
maybe not on allowed to mention on this forum but luxbet looks promising so far.
not every day and on every race but if one is only betting selectively it may of value.

Cheers

I didn't find Betfair as being rubbish.

The constant closures for website maintenance without appropriate warning are annoying and frustrating though.

Yes not criticising the betting medium, just the IT infrastructure.
It's more offline than the Terminator these days.

Hi AngryPixie,

Apologies for the late reply, I've literally been in the thick of it, sat between two Sri Lankans, going through a veritable roller coaster of emotions at the MCG. I'm glad I don't bet on sports matches because I don't think my heart could've taken it! What a match!!!

I agree wholeheartedly with your last sentence in the quotation. One can probably play any price bracket with success, be it backing or laying, so long as you can accurately evaluate overlays vs underlays to your advantage.

My rule of thumb is to find a horse that I believe is 1-2 lengths better then the opposition in the chosen race. I then wait for the right price. On an average Saturday there will be 10-15 selections, of which I will bet between 4-8 of these selections depending on the price on offer. Watch enough races and you get a feel for the obvious factors that will make this horse favourite and that horse 2nd favourite etc. Sometimes the market will confuse you no end, in this instance, take a paracetamol (or 3 deep breaths), step away, then back your instincts.

I don't for a second pretend to know it all, however I know that what I do works, I assume it's the same with your lay selections. You understand the ups and downs, ins and outs.

My downfall for the best part of my early punting career was threefold; lacking direction, impatience and not demanding value.

Reverse these three things and you're in business. :)

The Schmile

Chrome, this is pretty much why I gave this away. Just became too frustrating to have finished virtually in the same place you'd started at when the end of the week came around. The journey during that week was one of incredible ups and downs, and over time it seemed to me that the ups where smaller and the downs bigger. Just doesn't fit with where I'm at. The margin's not big enough for me. Much prefer the destination to have been worth the journey.

Aqueduct Racing
 

THE UPS AND DOWN OF US RACING CHECK AQUEDUCT FOR FEB or ABOUT 20 RACING DAYS
IT'S AN ANALYSIS OF HOW THE FAVORITES HAVE PERFORMED IN FEBRUARY 2012.

* HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS:

1. OUT OF 147 RACES THE FAVORITE HAS BEEN AT EVEN MONEY OR LESS 48 TIMES.

2. THESE ODDS-ON FAVORITES HAVE WON 70.8 % OF THEIR RACES.

3. ALL FAVORITES HAVE WON 44.9 % OF THEIR
RACES.

4. NOTE THAT FAVORITES GOING OFF AT ODDS GREATER THAN EVEN MONEY BUT = TO OR LESS THAN 2.20 WON EXACTLY 33.3 % OF THEIR RACES.



HERE IS SOME INTERESTING INFO CONCERNING ODDS-ON FAVORITES AT AQUEDUCT FOR FEBRUARY.

* WITH 70.8 % WINNERS YOU WOULD NEED A BREAK-EVEN PAYOFF FOR $1 OF $1.41 (1/ 70.8 % = $1.41).

* THE ACTUAL AVERAGE P.O. FOR $1 HAS BEEN $1.58.

* THAT REPRESENTS A RETURN OF $1.12 FOR EVERY $1 INVESTED:

1. $1.58 (AVERAGE P.O. FOR $1) X 34 WINS = $53.65.

2. $1.12 (RETURN PER $1 INVESTED) X $48 INVESTED = $53.65.

3. $1.41 (BREAK-EVEN P.O. FOR $1) X 34 WINS = $48 INVESTMENT.

I'm reasonably sure that nobody took my advice but there you go.
My results?
Friday, 22 markets, won on 21.
Today, 33 markets, won on 25.
Just over 3% POT for very little risk.
Most races were no risk.

Didn't follow your advice to the letter, but tidied up my own strategy around the edges with a few of your tips,so a big thank-you for that Mark.
Last night at MV was a wipe-out for me though, how did you go there?
Favs galore, sad but true.

Nice well done, though you make it sound as if risk is a bad thing ;) :)

I simmed up four UK races last night using your beginners method. Won on the first then lost the next three straight. :D

I didn't really get involved. Traded a few place markets, but was too busy building a book on the Interdominion.

I understand completely, no other band of winners does as much damage as a run of short favourites when laying the field to fixed liability. Added to that the market percentages have tightened up significantly.
You can limit this as outlined previously.

I tried your beginner method Mark but I just couldn't get it happening. As they say, each to their own. ;)

As Maxwell Smart said (or maybe not) "If only he'd used his risk for niceness instead of evil".

I'm not completely against risk I just prefer the steady income without the ups & downs.

Mark I can absolutely see the value of this type of method if it's income you're after. At my current stage in life I'm after growth so am willing to accept the risk that goes along with that.

As I suggested to Chrome earlier I gave the lay the field method away as I'd regularly see weekly bank balance swings of +/- 2 or 3k only to end up with $70-$80 for my troubles. That's not enough margin for me Chief.

I've been running a simulation since Sunday, playing around with banded staking (Maria). I'll wait till I get next Saturdays results and will post these up. Thought it might be of some small interest to show what I'm up to these days.

Hi Angry Pixie,

(lowers the cone of silence, and brings in Heimy).
KAOS has changed the SP market.
Heimi has been laying the field for me Chief, but KAOS has the claw (not the craw) to skim off the margins, hence Agent 13 (Angry Pixie) was only making $70 - $80 for his troubles.

So Max did a little investigation and asked K9 to sniff out the problem.
It seems Larrabee has been laying outsiders pushing the SP out on those horses.
K9 also reports that the massive swings comes from runs of favourites getting up.
They are profitable though, you just need to distribute the liability better.
Something along the lines of Mark's staggered staking.

For example, if there is an odds on favourite in the race and normally you'd lay the field to $30 liability. I lay every other horse to $60 liability, but only those in single figures, if there are any.

Siegfried has been doing this for a while and the rollercoaster smooths out considerably.

*TRIVIA: Don Adams father appeared in the episode "The not so great escape" as the oldtimer.

Hahaha. :D

Missed it by that much.

I hope I wasn't out of line with that crack about missing it.

Would you believe....?

:D