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not a bad day with a nice win in Kyneton Race 7.
Also Happy birthday for the other day. |
$22 winners are not easy to find. Well done.
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Well done Evaj.
This is a method of staking one may like to experiment with ,using a dry run first. Say our base bet is 1 unit on a 200 unit bank. Now divide your assessed price into the 2nd runners assessed price. That resulting figure is then multiplied by the base bet of 1 unit. Example Top rated accessed price is 2.00 2nd Top rated accessed price is say 3.50 2.00 into 3.50 = 1.75 1.75 x 1.00 base bet = O/L 1.75 units The idea is to take advantage on the accessed price's , price gap. The bigger the gap , the more that is put on. Up to a max of 3 times the gap difference. Meaning that a max of 1.5% of bank is ever made on a strong chance Horse. This can be a powerful technique of maximising profits if all goes our way on the day. |
mattio - i'm working on giving it a facelift then will try make it available for people on here.
UB/SpeedBen - Thanks :) Bhagwan - I've just tested my data in 4 ways including your described method, here are the results: Flat Stake 1% of $100 bankroll ($1) for all bets: 426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR) Turnover of $1,050 Profit of $513 POT 48.83% ROI 513% $1 Unit size adjusting for assessed Prices through ratings (Note I adjusted Bhagwan's equation slightly and have explained at the bottom) 426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR) Turnover of $1,455 Profit of $723 POT 49.69% ROI 723% 1% of Max Bankroll since inception adjusted for each bet 426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR) Turnover of $41,427 Profit of $14,784 POT 35.69% ROI 14,784% 1% of Max Bankroll since inception adjusted for each bet AND also adjusted based on assessed prices via ratings (As per below) 426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR) Turnover of $338,971 Profit of $109,151 POT 32.20% ROI 109,151% So essentially based on the above by implementing some staking plans (1% of max bankroll insread of set units AND adjusted for assessed prices) you dramatically increase your profits at the sacrifice of additional turnover and therefore reducing POT. Interested on the thoughts/comments from others, I highly doubt in practice I can turn my $200 bankroll into $110,000 over the space of 7 months but thats what my testing is saying. We'll see how it goes in practice. Adjusted Bhagwan's method: As my plays are already required to be 75% of the 2nd rated horse, that would mean every bet would have a minimum unit size of 1.3333 every bet. Therefore I used the following equation to adjust for it so that any play which is precisely 75% of 2nd rater will be 1 unit: ((2nd Rated Price / 1st Rated Price) / 1.333333) Example: Top Rater = $3.54, 2nd Rater = $6.72 ((6.72 / 3.54) / 1.33333) = 1.4237 Whereas in Bhagwan's method it would've been 1.8983 You then multiply this by either your unit size (set dollar) or max % of bankroll as i've done. Certainly does seem like a logical way of doing it, doesn't seem to improve the POT by a great deal but simply means your turning over more money for more profit. Also i'll post my plays for today at around noon. :) |
Today's plays, still at $2
Flemington - Race 5 No. 4 New Beginning Flemington - Race 6 No. 2 Zydeco Flemington - Race 9 No. 2 Lord Of Brazil Hawkesbury - Race 5 No. 1 Boston Tea Hawkesbury - Race 6 No. 5 Quidnunc Hawkesbury - Race 7 No. 11 Merlin Mustang Northam - Race 7 No. 1 Kincora |
Evajb and his perpetual profits machine rolleth on.
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LG |
Here's a scary thought. With a 40% strike rate you could safely bet a much higher percentage of your bank if you wished. I would wager that your worst losing run since you started is not worse than 15. Am I correct in this assumption?
Betting at best tote/ SP you were up 8.1 points today. Triffic. |
Hi SpeedyBen,
Your correct, in all of my testing (1 April 2012 til today) max consecutive losses has been 8. However thats by listing the races by venue in my dataset, not by race times. So it could possibly be higher then that if you get what i mean. But your right with only 1% of my max bankroll being the unit size, it would take 100 consecutive losses for bank to be gone, or a very bad string of losses with few wins. I could probably go to 2% but i'll keep it as is for now and see how I go. If I manage to get my bankroll up to $3-400 reasonably quickly i'll likely go to 2%. So in the 2 active days so far of betting the system live we've had: 33.33% SR 99.17% POT 11.90% ROI Bankroll = $223.80 New Unit Size = $2.23 (i'll always round down to be prudent) Had a very good day today, so could probably expect the next couple to be mediocre possibly. Although the start of november was poor in my testing so this could just be the system getting itself back to profit (as every month so far in testing has been profitable). |
I know this sounds a bit odd but if you have a large number of results it doesn't really matter what order you store them in the longest run of outs will be pretty much the same. Excuse me if I'm telling you what you already know.
Whether we are talking horse races or side effects in a drug trial the run of outs is entirely dependent on the hit rate percentage. Your hit rate is not much inferior to a coin toss so if you can sustain it you will never have a serious run of outs. Congratulations. |
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Speedyben, What determines the number of results to be confident in your strike rate ? Is 100 bets enough, 1000 bets, 10000 bets ? Personally I have found at least 6000 races are needed to check ratings before the strike rate starts to stabailise. I am interested in other peoples findings though. |
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In that case... We need that world famous system tester of yours back online ! LG |
Also UB is it based on how many races you've done your rating on or how many races you've actually used your ratings on for a system type bet.
For example i've done ratings on almost 2,300 races now but the system only bets on roughly half of these. I agree my sample size isn't the largest or the best. But its shown a profit in every month since the start. If it was a bung system I would've thought it may have been a bit lumpy or lost a month or two by now. |
With horse racing I like to see a full year's results covering all seasons. Even then, you have to be constantly on the alert for changes beyond your control which may affect your selection method.
What I'd like to say is that since you are starting with a small amount enjoy it and let the profits accumulate. If you want to you can take a dividend when you double your bank and adjust the bank and bet accordingly. It is a great feeling when you are playing with other people's money. I hope that is some help. |
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You have to start somewhere. And its going really well already. I say keep it going but just keep an eye on it as last month seemed to be the worst month you had yet. |
All of the following placed at the new unit size of $2.23
Kempsey - Race 6 No. 1 Bengal Angel Kempsey - Race 8 No. 2 Annarism Sale - Race 6 No. 3 Family Crest |
last play of the day:
Cranbourne - Race 6 No. 3 Severn Road |
Here are some of the early plays for today, fill continue to post throughout the day just in case conditions change anywhere.
Flemington - Race 2 No. 3 Galah Flemington - Race 3 No. 4 Hoylonny |
Flemington - Race 5
No. 10 Sea Siren Flemington - Race 9 No. 8 Tokugawa Eagle Farm - Race 4 No. 5 Binalong Road Eagle Farm - Race 6 No. 3 Run Royal Run Eagle Farm - Race 8 No. 13 Flying Jet Warwick Farm - Race 4 No. 7 Nat King Cu Morphettville Pk - Race 3 No. 3 Warator Morphettville Pk - Race 6 No. 8 Sparkling Bella Morphettville Pk - Race 7 No. 1 Riziz Morphettville Pk - Race 8 No. 5 Selessi will post any ascot plays in a couple hours |
Ascot - Race 3
No. 2 Smart Twister Ascot - Race 4 No. 6 Solsay Ascot - Race 7 No. 10 Luke's Luck Ascot - Race 8 No. 4 Peggie's Dream |
good luck with them today.
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Smart Twister helped to rescue a dirty day, Eva.
Out of curiousity, how would you have got on if you only backed the double figure selections? |
Overall a pretty luck finish to the day thanks to Ascot to help me break even. It was looking pretty hairy early on in the day but came home strong. I'm only hitting about a 20% strike rate at the moment so my testing shows it should be up around 35-40% so there is definitely improvement there. My max bankroll is $223.80 and i finished today at $223.53 so no increase to unit size again, still at $2.23
Ill try get tomorrows plays up but will be busy with a work show for clients and wont have signal on my phone. happy punting. |
Putting my bets on for tomorrow now guys, still $2.23 unit size:
Sunshine Coast - Race 3 No. 7 Wind Wand Sunshine Coast - Race 7 No. 3 Visona Rose Armidale - Race 6 No. 6 I'm In The Money Armidale - Race 7 No. 1 Devilgate Road Ararat - Race 5 No. 2 King Buddy Ararat - Race 6 No. 1 Texan Warney Pinjarra - Race 9 No. 7 Not So Sweet |
Hi Evaj.
Here is a staking approach you may like to to test. 1/200th UP & DOWN Staking Plan Make ones base bet unit 1/200th of bank. Adjusted DAILY, up & down. (Important) e.g. If bank is reduced from 230.00 to 220.00 Then bet 1/200th of remaining bank of 220.00 for the whole of the next day. Betting 1/200th, smooths out the ups & downs more, rather than say 1/60th This approach is considered to be one of the safer approaches to use. One may feel more comfortable using this approach , especially if ones bank starts to build to sizable proportions and if one feels that a bad run is just around the corner. It may also help you sleep better at night knowing that the strategy of the staking plan can withstand huge runs of outs & still be standing to keep on going. |
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10 Point Staking Plan Bhagwan Staking Plan Bhagwan Place Staking & Selection Place Staking & Selection plan Bhagwan Staking Plan (2) 5% Staking Plan 8 Bet Place Staking Plan (No2) Money Management Staking Plan Place Staking Plan Bhagwan Staking Plan (B) Staking Plan Challenge Each Way Staking Plan Staking Plan using variable percentage Dynamite Place Staking Plan Simple Staking Plan 1/20th Staking Plan Roulette-Red & Black Staking Plan Duel Progression Staking Plan Roulette 6 Step Staking Plan Ladder Staking Plan Roulette Staking Plan Ladder Staking Plan (B) TAB Favourites Plan Square Root Staking Plan 4 Horse Value Staking Plan Previous Winner Staking Plan 1-4 Lay Staking Plan Six Block Lay Staking Plan 10 Block Staking Plan Black Box Lay Staking Plan New Staking Plan Escalator Staking Plan |
Today's plays, still a $2.23 unit size. There were no plays yesterday and all losses sunday:
Townsville - Race 6 No. 6 Panecillo Kilmore - Race 5 No. 7 Jarrah Twist |
And another way to the 100,s already mentioned.
What is a better money management solution than level or progressive staking? Well the best approach is one that balances two competing beasts - risk and reward. Professional punting is about maximising your returns, but it is just as important to protect your bankroll. Following literally years of analysis and number-crunching have found the best risk/reward balance is to bet to collect 5% of your bank. So if a horse is at odds of $2.00, you outlay 2.5% of your bank which will return 5% (2 x 2.5) if the horse wins. If a horse is at odds of $5.00, you outlay 1% of your bank to return 5%. If the horse is at $10 you only outlay .5% of your bank to return 5%. The simple calculation to determine your stake is 5 divided by the odds. This method works because you're outlaying more on horses likely to win and less on those with a lower chance of winning. You're taking advantage of the fact that on a long-term basis the betting market is a very good guide - there is a perfect correlation between market rank and winning percentage. Favourites win more races than 2nd favourites, who win more than 3rd favourites and so on. And horses starting at $2.50 win more races than those at $3.00 and on it goes. The greater the price, the lower the winning strike-rate. we maximise our returns by betting to collect 5% of our bank, but instead of using the market odds we use our own rated prices. This means the greater the overlay the greater our collect and it has some strong similarities to a well known method called the Kelly Criterion. Horses that rate at $2.00 will win very close to 50% of races. Horses that rate at $5.00 will win very close to 20% of races. But the profitable edge is in backing these horses at a price equal to or better than their true chance of winning. For example getting $2.50 about a horse you have rated at $2.00 has a positive expectation. The staking plan involves outlaying no more than 2.5% of our bank on any one race and typically we're in the 1.5% to 2% range. A punter's bank might be $1,000 or it might be $100,000 but the percentage of their bank outlayed on any one race is the same and this maintains a good balance between achieving profits and protecting your capital. Now if you wanted to get aggressive and bet to return say 10% of your bank per winner, in the short-term you may do well. But in the long-term you'll almost certainly blow up your bank due to one of the most dangerous yet under-estimated enemies of a punter and that is variance. Proportionate betting with the aim of collecting 5% can reduce the drawdown on your bankroll and is a great way of maximising returns. You can agree or disagree to each there own. Cheers Garyf. |
I just read that on an email garyf. Not bad for a staking plan.
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Name for legal reasons. I admit i would never have thought of it, If you have a good set of prices like Eva's it should help. Posted it here rather than my thread Interesting Read, As staking plans were being mentioned on this thread. Cheers Gary. |
Today gents:
Doomben - Race 6 No. 3 By Choice Hawkesbury - Race 7 No. 3 Atsuta Bendigo - Race 6 No. 2 Kimurasun Ascot - Race 3 No. 9 Terkel Ascot - Race 4 No. 7 Business Secret Ascot - Race 7 No. 3 Tiffany Yellow |
Gosford - Race 8
No. 8 Lady Gazerra |
Bunbury - Race 8
No. 2 Riverbend Cowboy |
Well done evajb001. Like a Riverbend cowboy.
What's the running total like? |
Hi ocho,
it's been up and down the last few today's but with the protest being upheld at bunbury tonight it means its set a new max slightly above the previous so new unit size. new account size is $224.69 so unit size is now $2.24 rather then $2.23. In 8 days to be up with a strike rate of only 23.40% makes me semi-happy. Testing showed that in the long term the strike rate was about 36% so hopefully there are a few more winners around the corner soon. On a side note i'm hitting 65.38% on NBA at the moment and up about 8.26 units. |
That's great evajb001. To be below your expected S/R and still producing a profit has got to be a beautiful thing. Well done.
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Expected or observed? The 36% is a historic observed strike rate. The expected strike rate would be the sum of each starting price expressed as a percentage. Being below your expected strike rate could be bad in the longer term. Being below your historic observed strike rate is of much less significance as strike rate is a function of the price accepted. If your strike rate is down your selections starting at longer odds may be an answer amongst a few. |
All at new unit size of $2.24
Geraldton - Race 3 No. 1 Kneedeep Geraldton - Race 4 No. 6 Bernina Heights Geraldton - Race 5 No. 1 Bali Cruiser Moonee Valley - Race 2 No. 5 Orbicat Moonee Valley - Race 4 No. 8 Halle Rocks Moonee Valley - Race 6 No. 6 Arctic Flight Canterbury - Race 4 No. 5 Animoso Canterbury - Race 6 No. 11 Inventive Canterbury - Race 7 No. 4 Ingham Magic |
Plays for today, new unit size after some success last night ($2.30)
Sandown-Hillside - Race 2 No. 1 Angelic Light Sandown-Hillside - Race 3 No. 6 Verdant Sandown-Hillside - Race 4 No. 4 Star Of Giselle Sandown-Hillside - Race 5 No. 2 Raspberries Sandown-Hillside - Race 7 No. 2 Lunar Rise |
Morphettville Pk - Race 3
No. 7 Off The Map Morphettville Pk - Race 4 No. 4 Waratone Morphettville Pk - Race 7 No. 6 Almighty Bullet Morphettville Pk - Race 8 No. 3 Thorny Devil Rosehill - Race 4 No. 2 Scouting Wide Rosehill - Race 7 No. 4 Censor Eagle Farm - Race 7 No. 6 Bribie |
good luck today.
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