$16.50 plus $33 in my book equals $49.50.
Here's a hint for you, go to BF put in $16.50 @ $3, in turn tick the liability and payout boxes. The liability is $33, the payout is $49.50, it's all there in black & white.

That's it from me, time to pack.

Today's selections are:

Hobart
2/2, 9
3/6, 10
5/2, 15, 17

Canberra
4/8, 10, 11, 12
7/1

Hawkesbury
6/10, 12
7/10

Sun Coast
1/6, 10
6/6

Benalla
3/2, 8, 14
6/7, 9, 11
7/10

Bordertown
3/2, 3
6/5, 9, 10
8/10

Pinjarra
2/4, 6, 7
3/3, 9, 11
4/3, 6
6/2, 7, 8, 12
7/11
9/10, 11

Another bad day. Lost most of yesterday's profit.

There were 43 smiles from 45 selections for a loss of $27.49.

From day one there's been 382 selections for 7 accidents for a strike rate of 98% for a profit of $86.34. So its still going strong.

Can you provide details for the 2 accidents?

Cheers LG

Hi, L.G.

The accidents are Benalla 6/7 and Pinjarra 3/3.

If the Form, Cond and Cons columns had not been deleted then they would not have been selections because their price would have been less than $100. But I'm sure there have been instances that removal of these columns have prevented some accidents.

Thanks Michaelg.
Looks like very little could be done by way of trimming a $62 long shot. Unless you didn't lay it of course!

ON a positive note, my lg1 trimmer left all 16 legs of the 4 major quaddies in place on Saturday, which means an interesting lay proposition for the selections that got trimmed, I guess. Still can't quite get excited by the lure of the lay, however. Horses for courses, I guess.

Cheers LG

Good luck with your quaddies, L.G.

Today's selections:

Dubbo
1/1, 3
3/8
4/8

Pt Mac
1/3, 9, 15, 19
2/8, 10, 12
4/1, 13, 14
5/9, 10, 11, 12, 13
6/4, 11
7/13, 14

Bairnsdale
1/10
2/13
3/12
4/1, 10

What I like about this method is the amount of action. There is at least one selection in about half the races. Today I will lay something in 13 of the 22 races.

Name of the game I reckon.. keep active! (trying not to loose one's wick in the process). Applies to a lot of things, eh what?

LG

Hi Michaelg,

Have you broken down the losing lays in price brackets over the testing period?

Could you perhaps set a max price ceiling of $50 to keep profits up and prevent a blowout with a $200+ winner?

If laying to a liability as Michael does it's better to leave the really long ones in. They don't cost him any more when they win than a 3.0 pop and they sure lose plenty of times.

TheSchmile, I have broken down the prices of the losing lays but unfortunately I can't find anything consistent with them.

Because I only lay the selections on S.P. and not on the exchange, an accident be it a fave or a huge outsider is fortunately a loss of only $33 regardless of price, so I'm not too worried about a blowout if there's a $200 accident, whilst an accident at this price on the exchange might wipe most if not all of the profit, depending on its price. Laying on the exchange the higher the price of the accident then the more is lost.

I would not be surprised that if I had layed the selections on the exchange and not on S.P., the method might not even be in profit, which it currently is. With S.P. the loss is not high but so too the profit is relatively small. It's a trade-off but I think it might be safer to lay outsiders on S.P. than on the exchange.

Fortunately there have not been any accidents today yet, but it can happen when least expected.

Please ignore.

Hi Michaelg and SpeedyBen,

I would argue that it would only make sense to leave the really large priced horses in if they were making a profit at level stakes laying them. At this stage it's probably way too early to know.

I'm also not sure it would make sense to lay horses at higher than the DS $101, $201 or $301 price?

Anyway, just throwing ideas out there. Time will tell and I wish Michaelg as always the best of success!!

TheSchmile, thanks for the wishes.

I could be wrong but I think that the method is currently showing a profit laying both the favoured and outsider selections. But I would have doubts if I had layed them on the exchange. From the current seven accidents I think six of them were at fairly large odds.

And probably less than 6 with LG's 'long shot trimmer' switch?

LG

To work out level stakes just work out for a $1 win for all successful lays (93.5c with commission removed) and then deduct all your losing horse prices.

Thanks, The Ocho. When I get time I will do so by checking the prices of the seven accidents shown on the Betfair Results site.

Today's 28 selections became 28 smiles for a disappointing profit of $13.13.

I've calculated how the system by laying $33 S.P. compares to $1 level stakes laying on the exchange from commencement (7/Dec) of the method.

By laying level stakes of $1 on the exchange the seven accidents would have removed $305 from the bank, but the 403 smiles would have added $377 to the bank for a net profit of $72.

As comparison, laying $33 S.P. per selection for the same period generated a profit of $99.47.

Because the price of the average accident on the exchange was $43 that if there were two more accidents then the method would most likely be in the red.

However, during the same period laying S.P. it would have taken 3 more accidents for the method to break-even.

The above figures suggests that laying S.P. is the way to go with this method?

Yes michaelg. I reckon it is always best to lay to SP when laying outsiders as then you know how much you will lose should one of those animals actually win a race. If laying at flat stakes a big $500 shot (or whatever) would just wipe you out.

It was an intersecting comparison and it's good to see that at level stakes you are showing a profit.

Well done and keep it up. :)

Thanks, T.O.

For some reason after analysing the positive results of the method laying S.P. versus laying level stakes on the exchange my confidence is now inexplicably a lot lower. However, the results say my pessimism should be unwarranted, only time will tell...

Today's selections:

Kilmore
3/3
5/3, 6

Townsville
4/4
5/2, 7
7/9

M'brook
1/4, 10, 11
2/6, 12
3/4, 6
5/11
6/10
7/14

98% SR and a superior return using SP lay method as per your assumption and your confidence is taking a hit??

I must be borderline suicidal then !

LG

L.G.

Thanks for your confidence. I hope you're right.

L.G. you were right, thankfully - so much for my intuition/gut feeling. I think it may have been a natural negativity because I increased the bets by huge amounts. Tomorrow they're back to $33, and I must not (hopefully) give in to impatience until there has been many more selections... and success to give me more confidence.

From today's 19 selections there were 19 smiles for a disappointing profit of $7.52.

I'm not sure if this is of interest to you, Michael, but I set my bot to do what you were doing today but laying at the price available 5 seconds before the jump. The result was very similar with a profit of 7.68.

Speedyben, I assume you layed on the exchange.

My records show that since Friday 7 December laying S.P. outperformed laying on the exchange even though the prices are generally the same, as your profit today was almost identical with mine.

If you are going to continue laying the selections it might be better to do so on S.P.

Good luck whatever you do.

This I understand. LG

There's no need to be like that based on your figures at least. Nothing wrong with making more money laying at SP AND, at the same time, restricting your liability to only $33 than laying at level stakes and not winning as much.

Now larger stakes are a different story but the stats are going great so far so keep up the good work.

Thanks, T.O.

However, it's reverse confidence with me - the better the results the less confident I feel. Today like yesterday, I look at the selections on Unitab and my confidence drops.

Today's selections:

Gosford
5/10
6/11
7/9, 10

Mornington
4/10
7/9

Eagle Farm
1/9
2/1, 9
4/4
5/12
6/7
7/9, 14, 15, 16

Gawler
4/6, 7, 10
5/3
7/4, 10, 11
8/2

Launceston
2/3, 7, 8
3/5, 8
4/6, 9, 10
5/2
6/7, 12
7/6
8/8, 12

Ascot
1/8
2/2, 3
3/12
4/1, 14, 15
5/7
6/2

Correction - Eagle Farm race 4 has less then 9 starters so it is not a qualifying race.

My lack of confidence has been vindicated. The very first selection, Eagle Farm 1/9 was an accident.

Hopefully the other selections become smiles and recoup the loss of $33.

Correction - Mornington 4/10 is not a selection as it is resuming from a spell.

The Tele does not show this but Unitab does. I'm not having a good day.

Another accident - Gawler 5/3.

:eek:

The method's still about $40 in profit.

I don't know if this is any consolation but laying them on the exchange would be showing an overall loss.

Hopefully today is just an exception and it can lift itself off the floor.

Hi MG. When you say laying them on the exchange, what do you mean by this? Aren't the prices at which you would lay say 10 seconds before the off roughly the same as the starting price?

Yes, the prices on the exchange and S.P. are almost identical.

However, on S.P. the horse is layed on liability.

If a horse's price is $10 it can be layed on the exchange for the minimum of $5 which means that if it wins the race the layer pays $45 to the backer.

However, on S.P. it can be layed for the minimum of $30. If the horse is beaten the layer gets about $3 ($30 divided by 10) from the backer, and if it's price is $300 the layer wins about $0.10 from a lay-bet of $30 ($300 divided by 30) but he can only lose the outlay of $30.

In other words, the layer nominates how much he can lose on S.P but on the exchange he nominates how much he can win.

If one is not familiar with laying S.P. it can at first be quite complicated.

Thanks MG. I do understand this and if laying with my bot you can lay to liability at a lower liability than SP - like $5 liability for example (but then you will eventually get banned if you did this).

What you're really saying there is laying at level stakes of $5 with then a variable payout.

as long as your still in front, that's the main thing.

A disasterous day yesterday.

There were three accidents from 45 selections for a loss of $70.18.

There have now been 10 accidents from the 474 selections for a profit of $30.81. The method's in front but sinking quickly, and if it goes into the red I might probably end it.

Don't do anything too drastic like that. Just stop the system and try something else. ;)

Hi, T.O.

That's what I meant. I'll presently continue it, and also am considering laying the TAB no.1 as per Unitab's ratings. I think I listed the rules here somewhere with the six selections for that particular day (10 Dec) for a profit of $8.50. On checking past results on paper, it seems to be doing quite well. The drawback is that there are not many selections, but if it is successful that's no big deal.